Frank Kane’s WEF notes: Schwab’s vision of next industrial revolution frightens as it enlightens

Professor Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, clearly believes it time he left his mark in print.

You might argue that he has done that already as the WEF enters its 46th year, each one heralding a bigger and better – and more copy-generating – Davos. He has written or co-written several books already, as well as countless newspaper articles.

But, at 77 years old and preparing to relinquish at least some of the control over the forum he has exercised for nearly half a century, you get the impression that The Fourth Industrial Revolution is his life-defining oeuvre (the book is published by the WEF and is for sale on Amazon).

It is a big, epoch-calling theme. Prof Schwab thinks we are in the midst of a technology revolution that will change life as dramatically as steam power changed transport and manufacture, or mass production transformed industrial processes.

These are the first two revolutions he discerns. The third – the electronic and computer age ushered in during the 1960s – he admits could be regarded as also the beginning of the fourth technological revolution, but he says three main characteristics make the fourth a distinct revolution on its own: velocity, breadth and depth and systems impact.

“In its scale, scope and complexity, what I consider to be the fourth industrial revolution is unlike anything humankind has experienced before,” he writes.

The revolution is a symbiosis of technological developments that together make for an unstoppable force – robotics, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, self-drive cars, 3D printing, biotechnology and the like.

These are all brought together by “the supercomputer in your pocket” – the mobile phone – in a quantitative wave that results in qualitative change. It’s either a thrilling prospect, or the stuff of futurist nightmares, whichever your point of view.

But told in the academic language of the management consultant, it doesn’t really come across as either – just another development on the business scene.

Some sections of humankind will have particular reason to fear the fourth industrial revolution. Of the 15 big economies surveyed by WEF – including the Arabian GCC bloc – about 5 million jobs will be lost between now and 2020 as a result of technological changes Prof Schwab envisages. White collar, office and administration roles are at the greatest risk.

Women are more vulnerable than men, owing to the elimination of many female-dominant roles and low participation by women in high-growth skills in science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

There is a direct and serious message here for those economies of the region, such as Dubai, that have set their sights on “smart city” status – more sophisticated technology may make the economy more productive, but that does not necessarily mean higher employment or income. The social implications of the fourth industrial revolution will remain to be tackled.

There are other dangers too, apart from mass unemployment, as Prof Schwab spells out – greater wealth inequality, abuse of robotics for warfare, genetic tinkering, communications snooping. Those are pretty frightening possibilities, which is why Prof Schwab is at pains to call for the proper governance and supervision of the revolution.

In classic WEF style, he believes that responsible and civilised citizens will pull together for the good of global civilisation, in the spirit of “a shared sense of destiny”.

Maybe, but given humankind’s experience with other potentially detrimental technologies, such as nuclear weapons, it does not inspire confidence. Many, maybe most, people in the world are not as civilised, or reasonable, as Prof Schwab.

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