There was a consensus that the past four and a half years of economic and financial turmoil in the West had led to a permanent shift in the global balance of power. Reuters
There was a consensus that the past four and a half years of economic and financial turmoil in the West had led to a permanent shift in the global balance of power. Reuters
There was a consensus that the past four and a half years of economic and financial turmoil in the West had led to a permanent shift in the global balance of power. Reuters
There was a consensus that the past four and a half years of economic and financial turmoil in the West had led to a permanent shift in the global balance of power. Reuters

Euro crisis a threat to Asia-fuelled recovery


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The euro-zone crisis threatens to derail the global economy, and especially the power of China and other Asian countries to pull the rest of the world out of its downturn.

That was the sombre message from some of the world's leading financial and economic policymakers at the final big set-piece debate on the global economic outlook from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Perhaps the most alarming note was struck by David Tsang, the chief executive of Hong Kong. "Asia has 7 per cent growth, China has 8 per cent. It looks robust and rosy.

In Hong Kong we have balanced books and full employment. It all seems very nice, but I can tell you I have never been so scared," he said.

Mr Tsang said that, unlike the way Asian leaders dealt with the 1990s financial crisis in the region, European leaders had not come together to solve their own crisis. "We need decisive action by governments."

The danger posed by Europe to the world economy was echoed by other leaders. "No one is immune. This is not just a euro-zone crisis. It could have spill over effects in the rest of the world," said Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF.

Other economic leaders agreed.

"We want a firewall in Europe," said Motohisa Furukawa, the Japanese minister for economic and fiscal policy." If not, it would have serious effects on the global economy. My concern is that the crisis could have an impact outside Europe, especially in Asia and Japan."

There was a consensus that the past four and a half years of economic and financial turmoil in the West had led to a permanent shift in the global balance of power.

"The world is never going back to the way it was," said Robert Zoellick, the president of the World Bank.

"At international gatherings, I have noticed a general disdain among Asian leaders towards their western counterparts. This will persist for years to come."

Ms Lagarde said one element of a solution to the euro zone's problems should be greater resources for the IMF to back European countries under sovereign debt pressure.

She appealed for more funds from the emerging market countries to bolster the IMF's resources. "I'm here with my little bag to collect some money," Ms Lagarde said as she held up her handbag to the audience.

But she also pointed out that emerging markets would have little incentive to increase their contributions if the funds were to be given to support uncompetitive indebted countries in Europe.

"Why should the well-managed countries of the world help a zone that's not able to help itself, that is a fair question," she said. "If the fund is big enough, it will never get used, and even if it does get used, it always gets paid back."

Others were more sceptical.

"I agree the euro zone needs more resources in the firewall, but the IMF has to demonstrate it will be effective," said George Osborne, the British chancellor of the exchequer, or finance minister. "The fund was never intended to help countries that had a single currency, like the euro zone."

There were no representatives of the euro-zone countries on the panel.

"I find myself in the strange position of being the closest thing to a spokesman for the euro zone," Mr Osborne said. "It's the only time in my life I'll speak for them."

He added however that the euro zone had already achieved a lot by "pooling national resources to help others and bringing in austerity measures that usually get you kicked out of office".

Ali Babacan, the Turkish deputy prime minister for finance and the economy, said his country had faced its own financial problems in 2009, and had adopted different measures from the Europeans.

"We adopted a very prudent, tight fiscal policy. We didn't think fiscal stimulus would work, and it hasn't worked in Europe."

Meanwhile, Ibrahim Al Assaf, Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister, said the world's top oil exporter may be willing to raise its contribution to the IMF, aided by an "extremely solid" fiscal position.

"We have been there for the IMF for a long time; over 35 years we have been providing loans to the IMF. Also we have a large shareholding," Mr Al Assaf said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Davos, Switzerland.

"We like to maintain that or increase it."

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

VEZEETA PROFILE

Date started: 2012

Founder: Amir Barsoum

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: HealthTech / MedTech

Size: 300 employees

Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)

Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC