Oil markets are poised to tighten in the near term as the prospect of Iranian exports flooding the market is delayed by the Biden administration's domestic priorities, according to Goldman Sachs.
The US investment bank raised its forecast for Brent, the international benchmark, to $65 per barrel by summer, as it expected crude to remain in tight supply due to Opec+ action in the first quarter.
"The new administration’s focus on reaching bipartisan policy support suggest a lessened incentive to quickly revisit the divisive Iran nuclear deal,” the bank said.
“Delays in a full return of Iran production would reinforce our bullish oil outlook since we already forecast a tight 2022 crude market with low Opec spare capacity.”
President Joe Biden's government is focusing largely on domestic issues during its first 100 days in office, including measures to contain the world's largest outbreak of Covid-19 as well as pushing through a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to revive the US economy.
The number of infections around the world are inching closer to the 100 million mark, with 99.4 million cases registered as of Sunday, according to Worldometer, which tracks the pandemic.
The US accounts for more than a quarter of all infections and has recorded 427,635 deaths so far from the virus.
The inward focus will help the continued curtailment of Iranian crude from the market. Oil prices rose by 10 per cent since the start of this year as several nations began to administer the Covid-19 vaccine and as the US edges closer to delivering its stimulus package.
Wood Mackenzie, an Edinburgh-based consultancy, also expects a tighter oil market, revising its forecast for Brent to $60 a barrel by year end.
"The roll-out of an effective vaccine programme, now under way, boosts our confidence that we will see a resurgence in global economic growth this year [gross domestic product growth up 4.6 per cent], which is bullish for oil," said Ann-Louise Hittle, head of macro oils.
"We expect global demand to increase [by] another 6.3 million barrels per day, and to reach just under 99 million bpd by year end, 1 million bpd below the 2019 fourth-quarter peak."
Libyan production, which rebounded last year, has also faced obstacles in recent weeks owing to ageing infrastructure.
A leaking 60-year-old pipeline temporarily halted around 200,000 bpd of production.
Mustafa Sanalla, head of Libya's National Oil Corporation, said the company is looking to foreign investors to rehabilitate its infrastructure as it looks to increase exports.
Libyan production surged to 1.3 million bpd at the beginning of the year after a peace deal between various parties in the North African state brought a nine-month blockade to a halt.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
What went into the film
25 visual effects (VFX) studios
2,150 VFX shots in a film with 2,500 shots
1,000 VFX artists
3,000 technicians
10 Concept artists, 25 3D designers
New sound technology, named 4D SRL
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt
Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure
Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers
Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
Florence and the Machine – High as Hope
Three stars
