Saudi Arabia is betting that its next major economic opportunity lies not in oil under the desert, but in the rocks beneath the kingdom.
Saudi authorities estimate the kingdom has $2.5 trillion of mineral resources, and they are trying to turn that geological endowment into an industrial sector spanning mining, mineral processing and manufacturing.
The geological centrepiece of that strategy is the Arabian Shield, an ancient rock formation stretching across much of western Saudi Arabia. With an area of about 2.15 million square kilometres, Saudi Arabia is the world's 12th-largest country, as well as the Arab world's largest economy.
“For a country investing heavily in manufacturing, renewable energy, technology, defence production and infrastructure, developing these resources can create new exports while supplying industries that are already growing at home,” Irina Tsukerman, a geopolitical analyst in New York, told The National.
What is the Arabian Shield?
The Arabian Shield is the exposed western part of Saudi Arabia’s ancient crystalline basement, made up largely of igneous and metamorphic rocks formed between about 880 million and 550 million years ago during the Precambrian period.
On Tuesday, Saudi Aramco and Maaden signed a joint venture deal to explore the 182,000-square kilometre Transition Zone, also known as Zone 4, which runs parallel to the Arabian Shield.
Initially formed in an ancient oceanic setting, the mineral deposits in the Arabian Shield were subsequently shaped by tectonic activity and an influx of fluids, creating conditions for a wide range of minerals to form, according to SRK Consulting.
Canada-based SRK was commissioned by Maaden in 2023 for a prospectivity study in the area, which includes sulphide deposits, younger orogenic gold, post-collisional rare-metal granites, and lithium-caesium-tantalum pegmatites.
Mapping projects backed by the kingdom's Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources and the Saudi Geological Survey have catalogued more than 5,300 mineral occurrences.
What key elements are there?
The Arabian Shield is believed to contain deposits of gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, chromium, nickel, tantalum, niobium and rare earths, according to Vision2030.ai, an intelligence platform. Those are among the nearly 50 minerals identified in the kingdom, according to government data.
Its northern phosphate basin holds approximately two billion tonnes of phosphate ore, placing Saudi Arabia alongside Morocco and China among the top phosphate-rock sovereigns, it added. Bauxite reserves, gold mineralisation, and occurrences of copper, zinc and lead are also notable. Aramco had also confirmed lithium concentrations.
Aramco and Maaden specifically identified copper, along with other elements that are vital to the country's energy transition away from oil, as a key focus of their exploration.
“Diversification has become standard practice for anyone tied to fossil production, and it moves fastest where the geopolitical temperature is highest. Copper is just the current shape of it,” said Matteo Colombo, chief executive of Abu Dhabi-based consultancy Profile Middle East, which specialises in oil and gas.
Copper would be “particularly valuable” to Riyadh's energy goals, while other raw materials such as aluminium, steel, silicon and rare-earth magnets are vital to renewable energy projects such as solar and wind facilities.
Bypassing geopolitical crises
A robust mining sector in Saudi Arabia – where its vast manufacturing sector requires a high volume of raw materials – could be valuable for self-reliance.
That could also solve any mineral supply shortages experienced by the kingdom's neighbours in the Middle East and Africa in the event of geopolitical conflicts. The war in Iran has choked off shipments of commodities such as minerals, making them difficult to acquire and more expensive.
“Combining local production with foreign mining investments would give Saudi Arabia more room to respond when wars or political crises disrupt trade,” Ms Tsukerman said.
The kingdom does not have to become the biggest supplier of these materials. For instance, Iran is the biggest source of copper in the Middle East, while China is the world's biggest supplier of rare earths.
But getting “meaningful volumes from a reliable second or third source would already make a difference during a war, export restriction or political dispute”, she added.
How is Saudi Arabia planning to tap its potential?
Saudi Arabia already has a mining strategy in place as part of Vision 2030. The multi-trillion-dollar industry – which Riyadh says is the third pillar of national industrial growth, alongside oil and petrochemicals – is expected to play a major role in sustainability moving forward.
This includes attracting investment to pursue that goal. SGS chief executive Abdullah Al Shamrani previously said that reliable and high-quality geological survey data to support mineral exploration would be critical for domestic and foreign inflows.
While the kingdom has the means to build the infrastructure – such as roads, power connections and transport systems – there remain challenges, including the development and training of local expertise, companies having to deal with commodity price swings, and water resources.
But “if Saudi Arabia builds that system successfully, mining will do far more than add another commodity to its export portfolio”, Ms Tsukerman said.
“It will supply materials for the kingdom’s own industrial expansion, support renewable energy and manufacturing, reduce dependence on vulnerable foreign supply chains, and give Riyadh another source of economic influence abroad.”
