Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to a fraction of prewar levels after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the waterway closed early on Sunday and struck a Cyprus-flagged container ship, prompting what was a third round of US strikes this week. The attacks are expected to cause more volatility when oil markets open on Monday.
Shipping data shows transit fell through the week as attacks escalated. Kpler recorded 49 total crossings on July 7, falling to 30 on July 8 and 22 on July 9, with the observable “southern”, Omani route reduced to a single crossing on both days.
Tanker owners' association Intertanko told members on Friday that southern-route transits had dropped into single digits, while the northern route near Iran held above 20 vessels a day, well below the 70-plus daily transits recorded after June's ceasefire.
Maritime intelligence firm Windward logged 17 total vessel transits on July 9 and about a dozen on July 10, down from numbers in the high 30s and low 40s range earlier in the month, with nearly half of Friday's crossings going “dark”, as vessels switched off their transponders. Data for Sunday is not yet available.
The UK's Joint Maritime Information Centre said in an advisory today that despite Iran's closure proclamation, the strait's southern route “remains available” and has been expanded to accommodate two-way traffic. There is no controlling authority regulating passage or fees on any route, it said. UKMTO maintained the regional threat level at “severe”.
US Central Command separately said that commercial transits have continued. American forces have assisted the passage of more than 800 vessels and 400 million barrels of crude through the strait since early May, it added.
Later on Sunday, US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz remained open to commercial traffic, even as the US and Iran continue trading attacks. Mr Trump made the comments in an interview on NBC's Meet the Press.
Centcom and UKMTO identified the vessel struck as the Cypriot-flagged MV GFS Galaxy, saying it was hit about 16.5km off Oman late Saturday, causing significant engine-room damage and a fire. One crew member was missing and the rest abandoned ship, UKMTO said. Centcom said it struck about 140 Iranian military targets in response, raising its total to more than 300 across three nights this week.
Iran struck Jordan, Qatar and Oman, and the UAE's air defences engaged fresh missile and drone threats early Sunday morning. The UAE’s NCEMA said the threats did not enter UAE territory. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait condemned the wave of attacks, with Riyadh accusing Iran of violating international law and threatening the freedom of navigation. Kuwait said it reserved the right to respond.
Shipping through the strait, which normally carries a fifth of the world's oil and gas, has faced repeated attacks over the last week. Qatar's Al Rekayyat LNG carrier and Saudi Arabia's Wedyan tanker were struck on July 7. Outbound LNG cargoes through the strait have shown “no meaningful progress” since the US-Iran initial agreement was signed June 17, according to WTO Data Lab tracking.
Brent crude briefly touched $80 a barrel on July 8 after an eight per cent jump before falling back to settle near $76. War-risk insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Gulf have already climbed to about 5 per cent of a vessel's value, Lloyd's Market Association said on Friday, up from about 0.15 per cent before the war and the highest level since the ceasefire.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met on Saturday in Muscat and agreed to keep talking “at technical and political levels”, according to the Oman News Agency. The two countries set up a joint working group last month under clause five of the agreement to negotiate future navigation arrangements and fees. No formal management deal has been finalised.
