Iran's strike on a desalination plant in Bahrain on Sunday marked a shift in the war, from attacks on assets that damage Gulf economies to ones that threaten the daily lives of ordinary citizens.
Bahrain's Interior Ministry said on Sunday that Iran had "randomly bombed civilian targets", causing damage at a desalination plant in a drone attack. The ministry said that operations at the unidentified facility were not disrupted.
Deliberate attacks on civilian water infrastructure are prohibited under international humanitarian law. Article 54 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions explicitly protects drinking water installations from attack, and intentional strikes on such facilities can constitute war crimes under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
The strike followed Iran's claim that the US had hit a desalination facility on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting water supply to 30 villages. The US military has not acknowledged the strike.
Neil Quilliam, associate fellow, Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, told The National that the attack on Bahrain represented a "major escalation".
"Iran is moving on from striking assets that hurt Gulf economies and global energy markets to ones that will have a material effect on the livelihoods of Gulf citizens,” he said.
Today, around 5,000 desalination plants operate across the Middle East, producing about 28.96 million cubic metres of water a day, or roughly 41.8 per cent of global capacity, according to a 2026 study in npj Clean Water using data from Global Water Intelligence’s DesalData database, based on figures up to the end of 2023.
Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest country, accounts for 15.6 per cent of all desalinated capacity, producing 10.8 million cubic metres of water a day.
Desalination capacity by state
The Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar all rank among the five most water-stressed countries in the world, according to WRI's Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas. The Middle East holds only 2 per cent of the world's renewable freshwater, and 83 per cent of the region faces severe water scarcity. WRI estimates 100 per cent of the region’s population will face acute water scarcity by 2050.
"A region with limited freshwater and renewable groundwater resources, desalination of seawater is the primary source of drinking water across the GCC," said Mannat Jaspal, director and fellow - climate and energy at Dubai-based Observer Research Foundation Middle East.
The attack on Bahrain was significant as it is an island nation that is reliant on desalination and a water pipeline from Saudi Arabia. Bahrain has 103 plants producing 0.83 million cubic metres a day and no natural aquifers, according to npj Clean Water.
"Desalination facilities are large fixed installations that cannot be easily moved or repaired and often co-located with power stations," said Ms Jaspal.
"Any damage or disruption can lead to immediate shortages. While storage tankers and bottled water can help mitigate shortages temporarily, these are limited and costly alternatives", she said.
Strategic reserves exist, she added, but are short-term buffers rather than long-term substitutes.
Between 2006 and 2024, the region invested $53.4 billion in desalination capital expenditure, which accounted for 47.5 per cent of all global spending over that period and has contracted a further 20.9 million cubic metres a day of new capacity between 2024 and 2028.
Most desalination in the Gulf now uses seawater reverse osmosis, where water is pushed through high-pressure membranes that remove salt. This process uses 4-6 kilowatt hours of energy for each cubic metre, compared with 14-28 kWh for older thermal methods. However, Gulf demand for power is met largely by gas-fired electricity.
Mohammed Al Basha of US-based risk advisory Basha Report, noted that "many Gulf desalination plants are tied to power systems, so even nearby attacks can disrupt drinking water production."
Gulf dilemma
Aziz Alghashian, senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, said the strikes on civilian water infrastructure are designed to pressure governments without directly drawing them into the war, but that "there is a real effort for the GCC states really not to go into this war."
The restraint has limits, he said.
"If these desalination and civilian infrastructure are being attacked, then potentially there will be a response inching away," he said.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, mentioned precedent-setting on Saturday, following the impact on Qeshm.
"The US set this precedent, not Iran," he posted on X on Saturday. "Attacking Iran's infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences."
Mr Alghashian drew a historical parallel, citing the 1984 Arabi Island incident during the Iran-Iraq War when the Royal Saudi Air Force shot down two Iranian F-4 Phantoms for intruding into the kingdom’s airspace.
"[It] is not out of the question. It's an escalating process, and it's scary," he said.
Isaac Arroyo contributed to data analysis and graphics.
