US President Donald Trump’s pledge to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and back shipments with US insurance guarantees may steady rattled energy markets in the short term, but shipping executives warn that only tangible security improvements will persuade vessels to return in meaningful numbers.
Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest, told The National that the US offer of insurance guarantees and naval escorts is “not a significant assurance”, as private shipping companies are likely to avoid risks despite a brief pullback in oil prices after the announcement.
“We believe normal shipping operations would take some time before the situation stabilises on both sides,” Mr Ansari said.
In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Mr Trump said he had ordered the US-based Development Finance Corporation to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy shipments travelling through the Gulf.
The US will also begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, he added.
Oil prices fell following the announcement but continue to trade higher amid a rise in geopolitical risks and the Iran war.
Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world's seaborne oil, was up 3 per cent to $83.68 per barrel at 2.19pm UAE time, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge tracking US crude, was 2.62 per cent higher at $76.5 a barrel.
His comments come as ship owners have stopped sailing through the narrow water channel that lies between Oman and Iran, through which 20 million bpd of crude and oil products pass daily.
The number of ships sailing through the strait has come close to a standstill following US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's attacks on Gulf civilian, energy and military sites. As retaliatory strikes from Iran continue, its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has also warned vessels to avoid the channel. Iran has also been attacking vessels that have continued to transit.
Tanker transits through the strait have plunged 88 per cent, while vessels carrying liquefied petroleum gas are down 94 per cent, according to the latest data from shipping analytics company Kpler.
On Wednesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre said that an oil tanker off the coast of Fujairah suffered minor damage following a loud blast, with no injuries reported among crew members.
Shipping companies, including Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd and France’s CMA CGM, are not operating vessels in the Strait of Hormuz due to an increase in security risks.
Luca Nevola, senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled), said the recent attacks mark a tangible shift in the maritime risk environment rather than mere rhetoric.
Acled is a global conflict-monitoring organisation that tracks and verifies real-time data on political violence and security incidents worldwide, including maritime attacks.
“What we are seeing in the past 48 hours is not just a symbolic threat environment. Multiple vessels have been directly impacted or targeted across separate maritime zones, including fatal and injury-producing incidents. That pattern alone is sufficient to trigger a behavioural shift among commercial operators,” Mr Nevola said.
The US move would “help restore confidence”, but ship owners would ultimately base decisions on actual security conditions before resuming voyages through the Strait of Hormuz, Capt Farhad Patel, director of Sharaf Shipping Agency, told The National.
He said insurance backing, credible naval escorts and clear transit procedures could gradually bring vessels back. Recovery in traffic would be slow and phased as operators assess risks and insurers finalise coverage terms.
