Oil producers relying on the Strait of Hormuz for exports greatly increased supply through the congested waterway, with Iranian loadings averaging a record 2.2 million barrels per day in February and others adding another 400,000 bpd as they prepared for a possible shutdown, analysts say.
Three tankers were attacked on Sunday while sailing on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had earlier warned ships to steer clear from the strait. US-sanctioned Skylight, a vessel that sails under the flag of Palau, and Marshall Islands-flagged MKD Vyom both came under attack today, while an unidentified tanker was also attacked, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations. Insurers remain unwilling to take on new risk and are instead cancelling policies and raising rates for any journey in one of the world’s riskiest chokepoints.
"They were preparing for this," Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at shipping analytics company Kpler, told The National. He cautioned that Iranian exports are now likely to slow sharply, with tankers reluctant to approach Kharg Island from which Iran loads more than 90 per cent of its crude.
German international shipping and container transport company Hapag-Lloyd told The National it is monitoring the situation closely when asked if it planned to reroute.
"It is too early to provide substantial information while the situation remains very fluid. We have contingency plans in place, and the safety of our seafarers remains our top priority," Tim Seifert, the company spokesman, said on Sunday.
Danish conglomerate Maersk, one of the world's largest integrated container logistics companies, said it was halting all operations in the passageway until further notice.
"As a result, services calling ports in the Arabian Gulf may experience delays, rerouting or schedule adjustments," Maersk wrote in an online post.
The Strait of Hormuz has since become the focal point of global energy markets, as retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the Gulf disrupt tanker traffic and raise concerns over the integrity of the region's oil infrastructure.
Gulf crude loadings, excluding Iran's, have averaged about 14.2 million bpd in February, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to Kpler.
These exports originate from terminals that require passage through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the waterway’s critical role in sustaining global supply.
Opec+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 bpd from April to help steady markets amid escalating Gulf tensions.
While production centres have largely avoided sustained direct damage, operational stress is building.
Kpler reports renewed satellite navigation interference across the Gulf in the days before US–Israeli military operations, including around the Assaluyeh complex and Bandar Abbas.
The disruption has distorted Automatic Identification System signals, causing vessels to appear clustered unnaturally or mispositioned, and are complicating tracking around key terminals and transit lanes.
In congested waters such as Hormuz, it has degraded positioning and increased navigational and monitoring risks.
Impact on Shipping and Energy Routes
In the hours surrounding warnings from the IRGC and renewed closure threats around the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler tracking showed at least five VLCCs turning away from the Mideast Gulf
Four ballast vessels – the Orbiter, Universal Victor, Mitake and Trikwong Venture – reversed course short of the strait, while KHK Empress diverted after beginning its lifting programme.
Together, those five ships represent about 1.4 million tonnes, or about 10 million barrels, of crude potentially affected. Although this is considered a modest compared to Gulf exports, the diversions are indicative of shifts based on security.
Kpler data further shows VLCCs in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea surged to 96 vessels on February 17, which is the highest since late July, before easing below 90 over the following week
The positioning suggests caution among shipowners but continued inflows and loading activity.
About 15 million bpd of crude and 5.5 million bpd of refined products were moving through the strait as recently as January and February, according to shipping data. Since the outbreak of violence, vessels have reportedly begun to pile up at both ends of the strait’s entrance, signalling widespread caution among tanker operators.
So while the strait is not formally closed, commercial movements have slowed with many holding position and pending security assessments.
"This sharp drop in traffic reflects precautionary measures by shipowners and charterers rather than a declared blockade," Capt Farhad Patel, director of the Sharaf Shipping Agency, told The National.
Opec+ members said in their Sunday meeting that Gulf production centres have so far avoided damage, although some export flows, particularly from Iraq’s southern terminals, have been affected by shipping delays after the IRGC's warnings.
Capt Patel echoed this view as a compounding effect of recent developments.
"If the current cautionary stance continues, we may see short-term price spikes driven more by sentiment and insurance premiums than by physical shortage," he said.
The risk premium attached to oil has climbed amid these stresses. Brent crude prices had already gained more than $10 per barrel over recent weeks as concerns over conflict with Iran grew. Analysts noted that, notwithstanding Opec+’s supply boost, markets are likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Gulf rather than to modest production changes.
Infrastructure intact - for now
Despite the disruption to shipping and elevated geopolitical risk, the physical infrastructure that underpins Gulf oil export capacity including terminals, pipelines and processing centres, has so far remained largely intact.
Opec+ members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE also hold about 3.5 million bpd of spare production capacity, which can be brought online within weeks if required.
While agreeing to a measured output increase signals confidence in their ability to offset risk without starting more price volatility, analysts have said the real determinant of prices remains the status of shipping flows through Hormuz and the wider security situation, not production quotas.
Fareed Rahman contributed to this report
