“The great questions of the day will be decided by blood and iron,” said former German chancellor Otto von Bismarck. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin seems to believe the same but with the addition of the key element of oil. The progress of his campaign in Ukraine depends on the Russian economy and in turn, on its energy industries.
That may encourage Mr Putin to believe he can continue the grinding campaign in eastern Ukraine and hope for a withdrawal of US support for Kyiv under incoming president Donald Trump.
Tatiana Mitrova, my colleague at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy, concisely summarises some of the crucial metrics for last year. Oil production was slightly lower than in 2023 but that reflected adherence to Opec+ commitments. Even though prices for Brent crude, the international benchmark, were a little lower, profits from oil exports increased, as Russian companies managed to shrink the discount for sales to their key markets, India and China.
Gas production rose, as state pipeline export monopoly Gazprom was able to grow sales to China and Central Asian neighbours. However, profits have dropped because these are much less lucrative markets than Europe. Gazprom used to provide about 10 per cent of the government budget; it made a loss in 2023, though it returned to profit last year.
The coal industry, financially less important but socially prominent, had a bad year. Europe had already banned coal imports from Russia and last year’s falling prices and Chinese import tariffs saw sales volumes and profits plummet.
Overall fossil fuel export revenue, which peaked at about €39 billion ($40 billion) in March 2022 according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, fell to a low of about €19 billion in July 2023 and has hovered a little above that monthly level since.
The electricity sector is also struggling. Ramshackle infrastructure and fast-rising demand to meet war industries saw profits almost halve. Areas of southern and far eastern Russia have been hit by power cuts. On February 8, the Baltic countries will finally disconnect from the Russian grid. Now, the strategic Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, has become an energy island itself.
Moscow may be approaching the limits of war production, as its battlefield consumption and losses of artillery, shells and armoured vehicles far exceed replacement. Defence producers compete with the army for personnel and both strip the rest of the economy of workers. This drives up wages. Inflation is reported at 9 per cent, and interest rates, raised to 21 per cent, are a problem for business investment. The rouble has lost a quarter of its value since mid-2022.
“The sinews of war are infinite money”, the Roman orator Cicero, observed. Officially, military spending consumes 41 per cent of the state budget and 7 per cent of gross domestic product; in reality, it is likely significantly more. At a budgeted $142 billion for this year, it equates to more than half of last year’s energy export earnings. Unable to raise money internationally, Moscow is drawing down its sovereign wealth fund and gold reserves.
Three things have already got worse for the Kremlin this year. First, Ukraine has stepped up its aerial campaign against the Russian fuel sector, most recently hitting the large, modern Taneco refinery in Tatarstan, which is more than 1,200km from the Ukrainian border.
Second, the US on Friday issued a wide set of sanctions targeting many of the tankers in the “shadow fleet” of ageing tankers that Russia uses to get its oil to market. They also cover two of the biggest Russian oil companies, Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz, and a Chinese terminal operator that receives Russian oil.
The White House suggests these measures could reduce Russian oil exports by as much as 1.5-2 million barrels per day in the short term, out of 7.8 million bpd total exports in December. Russia will have to scramble to find new vessels, possibly returning to Greek ships where the price of sales is capped at $60 per barrel.
Inspections are also tightening on the shadow fleet, that sails potentially risky routes through the Baltic and North Seas. Recent possible sabotage by Russia-linked ships of undersea gas pipelines and electricity and telecom cables will not encourage Europe to be lenient.
Third, Russia’s gas sector faces more problems. On January 1, the transit contract through Ukraine expired and supplies stopped. It means the cessation of Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe, other than those moving through Turkey to south-east European states.
Europe is still the major buyer of Russian liquefied natural gas, which contributed about 10 per cent of Russia’s fossil fuel export revenue in December. The new US measures also target two smaller operational LNG centres, while earlier sanctions have tried to stop the large Arctic LNG 2 project from being completed. But, during a cold winter and having lost the Ukrainian pipeline option, Brussels is still reluctant to move to ban Russian LNG imports.
If substantial Russian oil is taken off the market, the response of the rest of Opec+ will be crucial. It could keep production steady and pocket the higher prices. Or, it could raise output, stabilising the market and regaining some sales, but at the risk of annoying its colleagues in Moscow.
Russia’s economy won’t collapse, and it will probably again find creative ways to sidestep sanctions, shuffling oil exports between producers and offering more discounts to customers. However, for all the blood and oil it has spent, the lack of money will increasingly weaken its war effort this year. Russian energy industries creak under the burden of deciding this great question.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
More from Aya Iskandarani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
Sugary teas and iced coffees
The tax authority is yet to release a list of the taxed products, but it appears likely that sugary iced teas and cold coffees will be hit.
For instance, the non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Cold coffee brands are likely to be hit too. Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: From Dh280,000
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
SHOW COURTS ORDER OF PLAY
Wimbledon order of play on Saturday, July 8
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Centre Court (4pm)
Agnieszka Radwanska (9) v Timea Bacsinszky (19)
Ernests Gulbis v Novak Djokovic (2)
Mischa Zverev (27) v Roger Federer (3)
Court 1 (4pm)
Milos Raonic (6) v Albert Ramos-Vinolas (25)
Anett Kontaveit v Caroline Wozniacki (5)
Dominic Thiem (8) v Jared Donaldson
Court 2 (2.30pm)
Sorana Cirstea v Garbine Muguruza (14)
To finish: Sam Querrey (24) leads Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12) 6-2, 3-6, 7-6, 1-6, 6-5
Angelique Kerber (1) v Shelby Rogers
Sebastian Ofner v Alexander Zverev (10)
Court 3 (2.30pm)
Grigor Dimitrov (13) v Dudi Sela
Alison Riske v Coco Vandeweghe (24)
David Ferrer v Tomas Berdych (11)
Court 12 (2.30pm)
Polona Hercog v Svetlana Kuznetsova (7)
Gael Monfils (15) v Adrian Mannarino
Court 18 (2.30pm)
Magdalena Rybarikova v Lesia Tsurenko
Petra Martic v Zarina Diyas
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
'The Ice Road'
Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne
2/5
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
Three trading apps to try
Sharad Nair recommends three investment apps for UAE residents:
- For beginners or people who want to start investing with limited capital, Mr Nair suggests eToro. “The low fees and low minimum balance requirements make the platform more accessible,” he says. “The user interface is straightforward to understand and operate, while its social element may help ease beginners into the idea of investing money by looking to a virtual community.”
- If you’re an experienced investor, and have $10,000 or more to invest, consider Saxo Bank. “Saxo Bank offers a more comprehensive trading platform with advanced features and insight for more experienced users. It offers a more personalised approach to opening and operating an account on their platform,” he says.
- Finally, StashAway could work for those who want a hands-off approach to their investing. “It removes one of the biggest challenges for novice traders: picking the securities in their portfolio,” Mr Nair says. “A goal-based approach or view towards investing can help motivate residents who may usually shy away from investment platforms.”
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%3Cp%3EAriana%E2%80%99s%20Persian%20Kitchen%3Cbr%3EDinner%20by%20Heston%20Blumenthal%3Cbr%3EEstiatorio%20Milos%3Cbr%3EHouse%20of%20Desserts%3Cbr%3EJaleo%20by%20Jose%20Andres%3Cbr%3ELa%20Mar%3Cbr%3ELing%20Ling%3Cbr%3ELittle%20Venice%20Cake%20Company%3Cbr%3EMalibu%2090265%3Cbr%3ENobu%20by%20the%20Beach%3Cbr%3EResonance%20by%20Heston%20Blumenthal%3Cbr%3EThe%20Royal%20Tearoom%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI