Oil prices record weekly gain on China's stronger economic growth forecast

Investors are assessing the outlook for 2025 while monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East

A worker performs a routine check on the valves at a natural gas appraisal well of Sinopec in Langzhong county, Sichuan province. China's economy is hoped to recover further in 2025. Reuters

Oil prices closed more than one per cent higher on Friday and recorded a weekly gain amid forecasts for higher economic growth in China, while investors are still evaluating the market outlook for 2025 and monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was up 1.24 per cent to $74.17 a barrel on Friday, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, rose 1.4 per cent, to $70.60 per barrel.

Both Brent and WTI crude gained about 1.4 per cent for the week.

"Crude is set to close the year in the bearish consolidation zone, still waiting for China to get better and to narrow the global supply glut that’s expected to average near 1 million barrels per day in 2025," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said.

The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth, which it estimated at 4.9 per cent in 2024 and 4.5 per cent in 2025, amid expectations that the government's stimulus policies will prompt a recovery in the Asian country's economy.

The Washington-based lender, however, warned that China, the world's biggest oil importer, will face "subdued" household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, that will continue weighing on its growth in 2025.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been the engine of global oil demand growth for the past two decades. However, this year, consumption has declined sharply due to an economic slowdown and as the transition to electric vehicles gathers pace.

The strong US dollar has also capped oil price gains. The greenback has increased about 7 per cent in the fourth quarter and held steady at close to a two-year peak against major currencies after the US Federal Reserve signalled slower interest rate cuts in 2025.

Investors are currently evaluating the market outlook for next year and keeping a close eye on conflicts in the Middle East, against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions that have raised potential supply risks.

The "relatively modest" global oil demand growth leaves the market looking "comfortably supplied" in 2025, the International Energy Agency said in a December report. The agency increased its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million bpd, up from 80,000 bpd in 2024.

"As the year draws to a close, oil markets appear relatively calm, with crude oil trading in a $70-75/bbl range. But, as recent years have shown, market shocks can arrive with little or no warning, making close attention to oil security as important as ever," the IEA said.

In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war, which had become "a bit of an afterthought" in energy markets this year as global supply networks have adjusted to the changing flows of Russian exports, and stagnate demand tempered concerns of shortages, has returned to the focus, fuel distributor TACenergy's trading desk said in a note on Friday.

"The tensions seem to be coming back to the forefront this week with numerous events that could have impacts on supply flows next year," it said.