Fossil fuel demand probably peaked in developed economies last year, report says

Methane emissions from fossil fuels, as well as from industrial activities, increased in almost all regions except the Middle East

Smoke rises from the chimneys of a coal-fired power plant in West Java, Indonesia. After carbon dioxide emissions, methane is the second-largest contributor to climate change caused by humans. AFP

Global energy demand grew by 2 per cent last year, marked by a record expansion in renewable energy and a probable peak in fossil fuel consumption in advanced economies, an industry report said.

Fossil fuel consumption increased by 1.5 per cent, with China and India driving most of the growth, and emissions related to energy exceeded 40 gigatonnes for the first time, the Statistical Review of World Energy report said on Thursday.

The report comes after the world experienced its hottest May on record, with the US, Europe, and swathes of Asia facing imminent or continuing heatwaves.

“With global temperature increases averaging close to 1.5°C, 2023 was the warmest year since records began, and the increasingly severe impacts of climate change were felt across all continents,” said Juliet Davenport, president of the UK-based global industry body Energy Institute.

“2023 saw record consumption of fossil fuels and record emissions from energy, but also record generation of renewables, driven by increasingly competitive wind and solar energy.”

Renewable generation, excluding hydroelectric power, grew 12 per cent to an all-time high of 4,748 terawatt-hours, with wind and solar accounting for three-fourths of the additions, the report said.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, accounted for 55 per cent of all new renewable energy generation last year, surpassing the rest of the world combined.

This occurred even as the country’s fossil fuel use rose by 6 per cent, driven by a post-pandemic economic surge.

Meanwhile, India’s fossil fuel consumption was up 8 per cent, with the South Asian country using more coal than Europe and North America combined, the report said.

“The progress of the transition is slow, but the big picture masks diverse energy stories playing out across different geographies,” said Nick Wayth, chief executive of Energy Institute.

In advanced economies, fossil fuel demand seems to be peaking, while in the Global South, economic development, and improvements in quality of life are continuing to drive fossil fuel growth, he added.

In Europe, demand for fossil fuels dropped below 70 per cent of primary energy for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, due to reduced demand and increased renewable energy use, the report said.

In the US, the world’s biggest oil and gas-producing country, consumption of fossil fuels fell to 80 per cent of total primary energy consumed.

Methane emissions

Methane emissions from the production, transportation and distribution of fossil fuels, as well as from industrial activities, increased in almost all regions except the Middle East.

The region’s methane emissions dropped by 7.9 per cent last year, compared with a 5.5 per cent increase in global emissions of the greenhouse gas.

Within the region, Iraq saw a 40 per cent reduction in emissions, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also experienced decreases.

After carbon dioxide emissions, methane is the second-largest contributor to climate change caused by humans. It is a greenhouse gas that warms up quickly, more than 80 times faster than carbon dioxide.

At the Cop28 climate conference in the UAE last year, 50 oil and gas companies, representing more than 40 per cent of global oil production, signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, which calls for net zero emissions by 2050, or earlier.

The producers are also aiming for “near-zero” upstream methane emissions and zero routine flaring by 2030.

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The Cop28 deal was formally referred to as the UAE Consensus, under which countries were urged to “transition away” from fossil fuels in what was arguably the most significant step forward for global climate action since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

It seeks to keep the global temperature limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which was agreed on in Paris, within reach and avoid the worst effects of climate change.

If global temperatures rise by more than that, the lives and health of billions of people could be endangered, say scientists.