The International Energy Agency has slashed its global oil demand growth estimates for 2022 and 2023, citing the possibility of a recession in several European countries and increasing risks for emerging economies.
The Paris-based agency now expects oil demand to grow by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2022, down from its 2 million bpd projection in September.
The IEA also announced a steep cut in its 2023 projection, with oil demand growth now expected at 1.7 million bpd, 19 per cent lower than its previous estimate of 2.1 million bpd.
“Our revisions are underpinned by further downgrades to global GDP growth expectations from major institutions,” IEA said.
“With unrelenting inflationary pressures and interest rate hikes taking their toll, higher oil prices may prove the tipping point for a global economy already on the brink of recession,” it added.
Global crude oil stocks rebounded by 36.5 million barrels in August, while OECD oil stocks rose by 15 million barrels.
“They would have been significantly lower had it not been for the release of 185 million barrels of IEA member country government stocks from March through August,” the agency said.
The IEA's projections come a day after Opec lowered its global oil demand forecast for this year and the next, citing Covid-19 restrictions in China, economic challenges in Europe and inflationary pressures in key economies.
Inflation hit four-decade highs in the US and UK earlier this year and remains elevated while also shooting up to a record in Europe.
Opec now expects global oil demand to increase by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2022, lower than its previous estimate of 3.1 million bpd.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading about 1.69 per cent higher, at $94.14 a barrel at 8.37pm UAE time on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 1.84 per cent at $88.90 a barrel.
The war in Ukraine, now in its eight month, coupled with rising recession fears, broadening inflation pressures and a slowdown in China, both the world's second largest economy and importer of crude, prompted the International Monetary Fund to cut its global growth forecast for 2023.
Despite the worsening outlook for oil demand, supply is expected to remain tight going into 2023.
US shale producers, who have been quick to respond to oil price spikes in previous years, have been maintaining capital discipline as they grapple with higher costs and supply chain constraints.
“This casts doubt on suggestions that higher prices will necessarily balance the market through additional supply,” the IEA said.
“While previous large spikes in oil prices have spurred a strong investment response leading to greater supply from non-OPEC producers, this time may be different,” it added.
An Opec+ decision to cut supply by 2 million bpd pushed Brent up by about $14 a barrel before easing this week. The global benchmark is down about 6 per cent from Friday’s closing levels.
The EU embargo on Russian crude oil and product imports that come into effect in December 2022 and February 2023, respectively, will result in further production losses, IEA said.
“With less than two months to go before a ban on Russian crude oil imports comes into effect, EU countries have yet to diversify more than half of their pre-war import levels away from Russia,” the agency said.
Tips for taking the metro
- set out well ahead of time
- make sure you have at least Dh15 on you Nol card, as there could be big queues for top-up machines
- enter the right cabin. The train may be too busy to move between carriages once you're on
- don't carry too much luggage and tuck it under a seat to make room for fellow passengers
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday (All UAE kick-off times)
Lecce v SPAL (6pm)
Bologna v Genoa (9pm)
Atlanta v Roma (11.45pm)
Sunday
Udinese v Hellas Verona (3.30pm)
Juventus v Brescia (6pm)
Sampdoria v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sassuolo v Parma (6pm)
Cagliari v Napoli (9pm)
Lazio v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
Monday
AC Milan v Torino (11.45pm)
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
The full list of 2020 Brit Award nominees (winners in bold):
British group
Coldplay
Foals
Bring me the Horizon
D-Block Europe
Bastille
British Female
Mabel
Freya Ridings
FKA Twigs
Charli xcx
Mahalia
British male
Harry Styles
Lewis Capaldi
Dave
Michael Kiwanuka
Stormzy
Best new artist
Aitch
Lewis Capaldi
Dave
Mabel
Sam Fender
Best song
Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - I Don’t Care
Mabel - Don’t Call Me Up
Calvin Harrison and Rag’n’Bone Man - Giant
Dave - Location
Mark Ronson feat. Miley Cyrus - Nothing Breaks Like A Heart
AJ Tracey - Ladbroke Grove
Lewis Capaldi - Someone you Loved
Tom Walker - Just You and I
Sam Smith and Normani - Dancing with a Stranger
Stormzy - Vossi Bop
International female
Ariana Grande
Billie Eilish
Camila Cabello
Lana Del Rey
Lizzo
International male
Bruce Springsteen
Burna Boy
Tyler, The Creator
Dermot Kennedy
Post Malone
Best album
Stormzy - Heavy is the Head
Michael Kiwanuka - Kiwanuka
Lewis Capaldi - Divinely Uninspired to a Hellish Extent
Dave - Psychodrama
Harry Styles - Fine Line
Rising star
Celeste
Joy Crookes
beabadoobee
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
