A pedestrian looks towards the European Central Bank skyscraper headquarters in Frankfurt. Bank of America will initially move about 200 sales and trading staff to Paris and Frankfurt, it said late last year.Krisztian Bocsi / Bloomberg
A pedestrian looks towards the European Central Bank skyscraper headquarters in Frankfurt. Bank of America will initially move about 200 sales and trading staff to Paris and Frankfurt, it said late last year.Krisztian Bocsi / Bloomberg
A pedestrian looks towards the European Central Bank skyscraper headquarters in Frankfurt. Bank of America will initially move about 200 sales and trading staff to Paris and Frankfurt, it said late last year.Krisztian Bocsi / Bloomberg
A pedestrian looks towards the European Central Bank skyscraper headquarters in Frankfurt. Bank of America will initially move about 200 sales and trading staff to Paris and Frankfurt, it said late la

Investors ask again what can ECB do to save euro from Italian crisis


  • English
  • Arabic

Investors are again speculating what the European Central Bank could do to solve the problem of a surge in Italy’s debt yields that is causing stress for Italian banks and reviving questions about a euro break up.

The stakes will be huge if a repeat election in the euro zone’s third-largest economy become a de facto referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro and its role in the European Union.

Italy’s economy is at least 10 times bigger than that of Greece, which needed 250 billion euros ($289bn) of euro zone and International Monetary Fund money to bail it out. If Italy needed a similar level of support, the numbers involved would be eye-watering.

Total IMF firepower would only add up to around 500bn euros and even with the 400bn euros that the European Stability Mechanism could conceivably get together, it still wouldn’t completely cover Italy.

Perhaps it’s no wonder then that Italy’s bond markets saw their worst sell-off in 26 years on Tuesday and investors are starting to look inquisitively at the ECB.

“If this continues for another couple of sessions, I think you will have to see some official [European] response,” said Saxo Bank’s head of foreign exchange strategy John Hardy.

“It becomes a ‘whatever it takes’ kind of moment,” he added, recalling the promise made in 2012 by ECB President Mario Draghi to keep the euro intact.

Italian investors are equally anxious to see Frankfurt’s response.

“If the situation doesn’t calm down in the next 36 hours, the ECB will have to weigh in some way,” said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager at Anthilia Capital Partners in Milan.

Pressure on the government yield curve could clog the central banks’ money transmission mechanism and that alone would give the ECB cover to step in on monetary policy grounds, he said.

So what can the ECB do? After all it’s almost impossible to imagine it would stand by and allow a domestic political crisis in Italy, Mr Draghi’s homeland, descend into another existential crisis for the euro zone.

It is still buying Italian debt as part of its 30bn euro-a-month quantitative easing (QE) program but it doesn’t seem to have limited the damage.

_________

Read more:

_________

Italy needs to refinance about 200bn euros a year, analysts estimate, and the ECB’s QE plan had been tipped to end in December.

That could be delayed of course, but it looks like it is the tool that evolved from the 2012 “whatever it takes” pledge - the yet-unused Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program - that is being brandished again.

OMT’s benefit is that it is technically unlimited and can be targeted directly at the heat in Rome.

The drawback though is that it would be politically toxic.

Italy’s leading 5-Star Movement and the far-right League parties have shown a dislike for the euro, and in Germany there has long been concerns that use of OMT would be akin to propping up a government which goes well beyond its mandate.

“It raises a lot of issues again, but if we get into a situation where Italy starts to slip into a crisis this is potentially a very big deal,” said one European-based monetary official, who requested anonymity due to the issue’s sensitivity.

“The size of the problem is bigger than anything we have had to deal with,” he added.

Rules laid out by the ECB for OMT usage are strict and effective conditionality attached to an appropriate European Financial Stability Facility/European Stability Mechanism (EFSF/ESM) program.

Such programs can take the form of a full EFSF/ESM macroeconomic adjustment program or a precautionary program (Enhanced Conditions Credit Line), provided that they include the possibility of EFSF/ESM primary market purchases.

Such demands would take time and could cause fireworks in Italy. Much of 5-Star and League’s political popularity has been built on a perception, among parts of the Italian population, that Rome has lost control of Italy’s fate to Brussels.

"Italy knows the rules." Vitor Constancio, the ECB's soon-to-retire Vice President said in a Spiegel magazine on Tuesday about the conditionality for the ECB using its OMT tool. "They might want to read them again."

For nervous financial markets, it looks like another game of euro zone chicken where they wait to see who swerves first.

The risk of a euro break-up forced the ECB’s hand six years ago and its OMT and the cheap LTRO funding programs before that shows it can be creative when the politics gets ugly.

But the difference today is whether Italy wants that help or will instead choose scrap the euro or quit the European Union, or “Quitaly”, which is a different proposition for the ECB and euro policymakers entirely.

Francesco Papadia, the former ECB head of market operations who helped construct the OMT plan thinks that unless there is a credible reassurance in Italy that an exit from the euro is out the question, markets won’t calm down.

“The way the ECB could help is OMT, but the OMT requires a (ESM) program and a program requires a government and Italy does not have that.”

Without that reassurance on Italy’ future in the euro, the ECB would be trying to save “a country that doesn’t want to be saved,” Mr Papadia said. “I would find it very difficult for the Governing Council to approve that.”

The specs

Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6

Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm

Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm

Transmission: Eight-speed auto

Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)

On sale: Now

SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Twin-turbocharged%204-litre%20V8%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20625%20bhp%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20630Nm%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh974%2C011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RACE CARD

6.30pm: Madjani Stakes Group 2 (PA) Dh97,500 (Dirt) 1,900m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,400m
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,900m
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (D) 1,400m

The specs

Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 582bhp

Torque: 730Nm

Price: Dh649,000

On sale: now  

THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

Infiniti QX80 specs

Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6

Power: 450hp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000

Available: Now

BMW M5 specs

Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor

Power: 727hp

Torque: 1,000Nm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh650,000

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

Countries offering golden visas

UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.

Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.

Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.

Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.

Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence. 

The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
  • Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Key figures in the life of the fort

Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.

Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.

Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.

Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.

Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.

Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae

The bio

Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district

Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school

Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family

His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people

Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned

Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our legal consultants

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

Abu Dhabi traffic facts

Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road

The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.

Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.

The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.

The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.

Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019

 

Marathon results

Men:

 1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13 

2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50 

3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25 

4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46 

5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48  

Women:

1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30 

2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01 

3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30 

4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43 

5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01  

The%20Beekeeper
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDavid%20Ayer%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJason%20Statham%2C%20Josh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Emmy%20Raver-Lampman%2C%20Minnie%20Driver%2C%20Jeremy%20Irons%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What is the FNC?

The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning. 
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval. 
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
 

Awar Qalb

Director: Jamal Salem

Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman

Two stars

Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
%3Cp%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%201.9km%20King%20Salman%20Boulevard%2C%20a%20Parisian%20Champs-Elysees-inspired%20avenue%2C%20is%20scheduled%20for%20completion%20in%202028%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20Royal%20Diriyah%20Opera%20House%20is%20expected%20to%20be%20completed%20in%20four%20years%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%20first%20of%2042%20hotels%2C%20the%20Bab%20Samhan%20hotel%2C%20will%20open%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20On%20completion%20in%202030%2C%20the%20Diriyah%20project%20is%20forecast%20to%20accommodate%20more%20than%20100%2C000%20people%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20%2463.2%20billion%20Diriyah%20project%20will%20contribute%20%247.2%20billion%20to%20the%20kingdom%E2%80%99s%20GDP%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20It%20will%20create%20more%20than%20178%2C000%20jobs%20and%20aims%20to%20attract%20more%20than%2050%20million%20visits%20a%20year%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20About%202%2C000%20people%20work%20for%20the%20Diriyah%20Company%2C%20with%20more%20than%2086%20per%20cent%20being%20Saudi%20citizens%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
While you're here