The global economy will grow 5.5% in 2021 as countries roll out Covid-19 vaccines, according to the IMF. Reuters
The global economy will grow 5.5% in 2021 as countries roll out Covid-19 vaccines, according to the IMF. Reuters
The global economy will grow 5.5% in 2021 as countries roll out Covid-19 vaccines, according to the IMF. Reuters
The global economy will grow 5.5% in 2021 as countries roll out Covid-19 vaccines, according to the IMF. Reuters

IMF board agrees to raise target for its precautionary reserves


Deena Kamel
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The International Monetary Fund's executive board agreed to raise the indicative medium-term target for its precautionary reserves due to a major increase in financial risks since 2018.

The Washington-based lender will raise the target to Special Drawing Rights 25 billion ($36bn), up from SDR 20bn, following a biennial review of its precautionary balances on October 30, it said in a statement on Saturday. SDRs are the IMF's own currency unit, based on a basket of five currencies—the US dollar, the euro, the renminbi, the yen, and the British pound.

The review was delayed by a few months to allow for an assessment of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the fund's financial risks.

"Directors noted that Fund credit exposure and related risks have increased significantly since the last review in 2018, with trends compounded by the Covid-19 crisis," it said. "Credit outstanding has nearly doubled, including a surge in emergency financing without conditionality and commitments under precautionary arrangements are higher than at the last review."

Credit concentration also increased and scheduled repurchases are larger and more bunched, the IMF said. The current target for precautionary balances of SDR 20bn is likely to fall below the indicative range in this fiscal year and the next.

In light of these developments, the executive board agreed to keep the minimum floor for precautionary balances – comprising the fund’s general and special reserves – at SDR 15bn for now and raise the medium indicative target to SDR 25bn.

Some directors would have preferred setting a higher target, the IMF said.

They agreed to closely monitor the situation as uncertainty due to the pandemic remains high and agreed to reassess the adequacy of precautionary balances before the next regular review in 2022.

“Directors broadly agreed that there is no need for additional measures to accelerate the pace of accumulation at this stage but urged continued close monitoring," the IMF said. "A few directors nevertheless called for consideration of options to speed up reserve accumulation."

In a separate statement on January 8, the IMF said it maintained its lending capacity at around $1 trillion for the coming years, with creditors' support for a doubling of the IMF’s New Arrangements to Borrow and a new round of new bilateral borrowing agreements.

"This is of particular importance in the context of increased demand for IMF resources due to the Covid-19 pandemic and ongoing heightened risks," it said.

Reforms to the IMF’s NAB, the second line of defence after quota resources, took effect on January 1. Some 38 NAB participants contribute an aggregate amount of SDR 361bn ($521bn) to the fund’s resource envelope.

The IMF has accelerated providing financial support to help member countries deal with the economic fallout from the global health crisis.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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