Global arms trade flat in 2016-2020 after more than a decade of growth

Middle East nations accounted for the biggest increase in arms deliveries, up 25% over the five-year period

Visitors look at the 817 DMR Semi-Automatic Marksman Rifle at the Caracal stand during Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National.

The volume of international deliveries of major arms was flat over the past five years, ending more than a decade of growth, according to new data.

The volume of international transfers of major arms in 2016-20 was 0.5 per cent lower than in 2011-15, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) said in a new report. This is the first time since 2001-2005 that the volume of arms transfers between nations did not increase on the previous five-year period, the data showed.

Middle East nations accounted for the biggest rise in arms deliveries.

Arms imports by states in the Middle East were 25 per cent higher in 2016-20 than in 2011-15. Four of the top 10 arms-importing countries in 2016-20 are in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and the UAE.

The US accounted for 52 per cent of arms exports to states in the region, while Russia supplied 13 per cent and France 12 per cent, the report showed.

Globally, the "five largest arms importers were Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, Australia and China", Sipri said in its Trends in International Arms Transfers report. These nations collectively received 36 per cent of total arms imports in 2016-2020.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest arms importer in 2016-2020, received 11 per cent of global arms imports, Sipri said. The US provided 79 per cent of the kingdom's arms imports during the period, followed by the UK with 9.3 per cent and France with 4 per cent.

The kingdom increased its arms imports during the five-year period by 61 per cent, the data showed.

The UAE has been among the world’s top 10 arms importers since 2001-2005 but its imports in the 2016-20 period were 37 per cent lower than in 2011-15, the report said.

"Outstanding deliveries at the end of 2020 – including for 2 frigates from France as well as air defence systems and 38 combat helicopters from the USA – indicate that the UAE’s arms imports will continue to be at a high level in the coming years," the report said.

The UAE recently signed an agreement with the US to buy 50 F-35 jets and up to 18 armed drones as part of a $23 billion deal.

"If deliveries of these aircraft are implemented as planned, the UAE’s arms imports will increase in the second half of the 2020s," the authors said.

The world's five largest arms exporters in 2016-20 were the US, Russia, France, Germany and China, accounting for 76 per cent of all arms exports, Sipri said. The US, France and Germany increased their arms exports during the period, while Russia and China saw their exports drop.

At the regional level, Asia and Oceania accounted for 42 per cent of arms imports in 2016-20, followed by the Middle East with 33 per cent, Europe with12 per cent, Africa at 7.3 per cent and the Americas at 5.4 per cent, the report showed.

Sipri presents arms transfer data for five-year periods to give a more stable measure of trends given the significant year-on-year fluctuations in international transfers, the research agency said.

The value of global arms transfers last year was exceptionally low – 16 per cent lower than in 2019 and 20 per cent below the annual average for the previous nine years, it said.

This may partly be due to the Covid-19 pandemic – which disrupted some arms companies’ planned production and delivery schedules – and the related economic crisis, Sipri said.

The drop in arms transfers in 2020 was also due to other factors including national procurement cycles, gaps in deliveries during shifting relations between suppliers and buyers, and economic conditions unrelated to the pandemic, it added.

Sipri said the uncertainty about whether the pandemic was a major cause for the fall in arms transfers in 2020 is underscored by the fact that several states actually had higher levels of arms deliveries in 2020 than in prior years.