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More than seven in 10 companies expect positive export growth this year, despite the Middle East conflict, indicating that business confidence remains resilient, a report has found.
The war has not derailed export growth expectations but has reshuffled the risk map after a year of trade war, according to the 2026 Allianz Trade Global Survey, which polled 6,000 companies across 13 markets in February and March.
The report found 75 per cent of exporters still expect overseas sales to rise this year.
While the conflict has reshaped corporate risk assessments, it has not triggered the sharp collapse in sentiment seen during the 2025 trade tariff shock, when export expectations fell by 40 percentage points, it said.
“Still, this optimism remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict drags on,” Aylin Somersan Coqui, chief executive of Allianz Trade, said. Less than a quarter of companies worldwide are worried about the shock waves from the conflict on energy and shipping, she added.
“The conflict pushed geopolitical and political risk as the leading threat globally for 65 per cent of companies, overtaking supply chain complexity and concentration (45 per cent), which was the top concern in 2025 amid the trade war,” she said.
“Supply-related issues, such as bankruptcy of supply and shortage of inputs, rose to second place (57 per cent).”
The report comes as supply chains remain disrupted due to the Iran war, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still severely constrained.
Global merchandise trade is expected to slow sharply due to the fallout from the regional war, from about 4.7 per cent growth last year to between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent in 2026, the UN trade agency said this month.
Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped from around 130 a day in February to only six in March – a dip of about 95 per cent, the UN trade and development body (Unctad) reported.
The conflict is continuing to tighten trade finance conditions, despite business resilience, the Allianz survey found.
Payment cycles are lengthening and the share of corporates paid within 30 days has fallen from 10 per cent to 7 per cent since the start of the war, while those waiting beyond 70 days has risen from 15 per cent to 24 per cent, the survey found.
Looking ahead, 43 per cent of companies expect payment terms to deteriorate further (plus 5 percentage points vs pre-conflict).
Non-payment risk has also deteriorated: the share of firms expecting higher risk has risen to 40 per cent (plus 6 percentage points vs pre-conflict). Pharmaceuticals, construction and computers/telecom are the most exposed sectors, while larger companies face disproportionately longer payment cycles, the survey found.
Looking ahead, companies are focusing on resilience strategies, including through inventory building, diversification into new markets and signing new suppliers. Half of the respondents also said they had been seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers since the start of the conflict.
The survey found that Europe and Asia have emerged as the preferred regions for future export growth, as companies shift focus from the US due to lingering trade tensions and towards markets seen as more stable and open to trading.
“Growth opportunities are being reinforced by a wave of new trade agreements: 93 per cent of firms plan to expand on recently signed FTAs [free trade agreements] such as India-EU and Mercosur-EU, with India, Brazil, Vietnam and France emerging as priority markets,” said Ana Boata, head of economic research at Allianz Trade.
“Yet the full potential of these agreements remains constrained: non-tariff barriers, particularly licensing and certification requirements, continue to be the dominant friction limiting firms from converting trade agreement access into actual export growth.”
