The International Monetary Fund on Thursday said a potential oversupply of liquefied natural gas poses a risk to Qatar’s economic growth prospects.
Qatar's economic growth is expected to average about 4 per cent over the medium term, after strengthening to about 3 per cent through the third quarter last year, the fund said after its Article IV consultation with the Gulf nation.
Inflation is expected to be about 2 per cent, in line with the country’s US dollar peg.
Qatar's Finance Ministry on Thursday said the country recorded a budget deficit of 5.3 billion rials ($1.45 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025, with total revenue at 51.6 billion rials and total spending at 56.9 billion rials. Its 2026 budget anticipates government spending will increase by 5 per cent from 2025.
“Qatar has shown strong resilience amid economic and geopolitical challenges,” IMF mission chief Nathan Porter said after the fund's visit to Qatar from January 25 to February 5.
Mr Porter pointed to the significant expansion of LNG production over the medium term as one factor behind this resilience, together with macroeconomic management and non-hydrocarbon growth as part of its sustainable development strategy.
The country is the world’s second-largest exporter of LNG, behind the US. It has ambitious plans to more than double its LNG production from 77 million tonnes to 160 million tonnes by 2030. It has also signed recent deals with Malaysia and Japan as it seeks long-term customers for its LNG exports.
“Risks to the growth outlook include a global growth slowdown, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and long-term uncertainty over LNG market oversupply and climate stress,” Mr Porter said.
Meanwhile, LNG production expansion and gains from accelerated reforms could deliver stronger-than-expected growth, he said.
The fund also said Qatar’s efforts under its Third National Development Strategy should focus on fostering human capital and innovation, easing access to finance for small and medium enterprises, and promoting trade diversification.
