The Port of Oakland in Oakland, California. A supply chain crunch stretches from overseas manufacturers to US ports and retail stores. Bloomberg
The Port of Oakland in Oakland, California. A supply chain crunch stretches from overseas manufacturers to US ports and retail stores. Bloomberg
The Port of Oakland in Oakland, California. A supply chain crunch stretches from overseas manufacturers to US ports and retail stores. Bloomberg
The Port of Oakland in Oakland, California. A supply chain crunch stretches from overseas manufacturers to US ports and retail stores. Bloomberg

Supply chain issues continue to challenge US manufacturers


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Glen Calder expected a shipment of gearbox reducers that were needed to build a particular model of his company's paving machines last week.

But when he called on Thursday to check the status of the order, he learnt that the shipment — coming from Italy — is now delayed three months.

“No explanation, no excuse, no nothing,” said Mr Calder, vice president of operations for Calder Brothers, an 80-employee manufacturer in Taylors, South Carolina.

Mr Calder said his factory was already cutting steel for the machines that require the Italian parts and would now have to scramble to produce something else. Orders for those machines, already delayed, will go unfilled for now.

Supply chain problems dogged producers like Mr Calder through the Covid-19 pandemic. At the peak of the crisis a year ago, manufacturers faced shortages of everything from steel and aluminium to computer chips and plastic resins.

Conditions have improved in recent months. The backup of ships waiting to unload at US ports, for instance, has dwindled. The latest monthly survey by the Institute for Supply Management showed the percentage of respondents saying supplier delivery times were faster than the month before was the highest since 2009, and those saying they were slower had fallen back below historic trend levels from last year's record highs. And many commodities have become more readily available.

But supply chains remain far from normal.

“To put it affectionately, I’m playing whack-a-mole every week with suppliers that aren’t delivering,” said Mr Calder.

He is not alone in this new game. A recent survey of 179 companies by the Association of Equipment Manufacturers found 98 per cent said they faced continued supply chain problems. More ominously — and surprising, given recent reports like the ISM data about supplies flowing more freely — nearly 60 per cent said they saw problems continuing to worsen.

Another gauge, the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, edged higher in October and November — reversing some of the loosening of global supply bottlenecks seen through most of the past year.

And now there is renewed concern about China. Through much of the pandemic, China’s factories struggled to keep up with the unexpected surge in global demand for manufactured goods. That country’s sudden lifting of pandemic restrictions has now sparked a wave of infections that could once again hamper factories.

Some manufacturers, however, are confident the worst is over.

Keith Johnson, president of Kondex Corp, which makes metal parts for agricultural equipment makers like Deere & Co and AGCO Corp, said “there’s a sense that everybody is finally digging out” from the shortages of the past two years.

That includes finally adding the workers needed to hit production targets at the Lomira, Wisconsin factory. Kondex has pushed its workforce up to 280 people, more than the company employed before the pandemic. But it was not easy to fill these jobs.

Mr Johnson’s new workers include 18 hired from out-of-state through a labour-sourcing company. They live in local motels and cost Kondex about three times more than their comparable locally-hired counterparts. The company is investing in automation and other equipment that should help with the labour crunch.

“But a lot of that has been delayed,” he said, by supply chain delays.

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Sole survivors
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Al Ain 1 (Laba 39')

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1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg

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July 26-30
Second Test, Sinhalese Sports Club Ground
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Third Test, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
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First ODI, Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium
August 20
Second ODI, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 24
Third ODI, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 27
Fourth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
August 31
Fifth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
September 3
T20, R Premadasa Stadium
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Scoreline:

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Atletico Madrid 0

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Updated: December 23, 2022, 5:00 AM