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US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell outlined his most aggressive approach to taming inflation to date, potentially endorsing two or more half percentage-point interest rate increases while describing the labour market as overheated.
“I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting,” Mr Powell said at a panel discussion hosted by the International Monetary Fund on Thursday in Washington, which also included European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and other officials.
Demand for workers is “too hot, you know; it is unsustainably hot", he said.
The Fed chief is taking direct aim at strong demand that the central bank wants to cool.
It is a strategy that bears considerable risk for US workers and the economy’s overall growth prospects in the coming months, as well as for the Fed itself in a year of midterm congressional elections, with inflation a major concern among ordinary Americans.
“This is going to be a very close call on whether we get a recession or not,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Securities.
“They have to get monetary policy into tight territory and they probably need to get some kind of rise in the unemployment rate.”
Mr Powell also reinforced expectations for another half-point increase in June by citing minutes from last month’s policy meeting that said many officials had noted “one or more” 50 basis-point increases could be appropriate to curb the hottest inflation in four decades.
“There is something in the idea of front-end loading” moves if appropriate, “so, that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table”, Mr Powell said.
Investors are betting on half-point increases in May, June and possibly July. Rising yields, in turn, have unsettled the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index closing down 1.5 per cent on Thursday.
Mr Powell’s St Louis Fed colleague James Bullard has also opened a debate about doing a more aggressive 75 basis-point increase if needed, while even normally dovish officials such as San Francisco’s Mary Daly have said that a “couple” of half-point moves look likely.
Mr Powell “approved a 50 basis-point hike in May, but I think June is also there and maybe even more”, said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior US economist for Bloomberg Economics.
To some, it is too little, too late. Critics say that US central bankers are caught in a policy bind of their own making.
Prices began to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2021, when employers shrugged at the latest wave of the coronavirus and added more than a 500,000 workers each month to their payrolls.
Wage gains picked up and demand strengthened, broadening inflation pressures throughout the economy even as the Fed continued to add stimulus by holding rates near zero and buying bonds.
Policymakers last year wanted to avoid pre-emptive tightening but the combination of fiscal stimulus, monetary support and a bounce-back in demand put them behind inflation pressures that were well under way.
The consumer price index rose 8.5 per cent in March from a year earlier, the most since 1981; the Fed’s target is based on a separate measure known as the personal consumption expenditures price index, which rose 6.4 per cent for the year through February.
Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine is expected to raise food and energy prices further.
Now, Fed officials are scrambling to raise interest rates to a level that does not add further stimulus, and possibly push forward into restrictive territory.
The Fed will no longer forecast relief from goods prices and improving supply chains, Mr Powell said, which could be an acknowledgement that pressures have also disbursed into service prices as well.
“I just don’t understand why they did this,” Mr Harris said. “They had many chances to take the off-ramp and they never did.”
Another uncertainty in policy strategy is what happens to financial conditions when officials start running assets off their balance sheet.
Fed officials have signalled this process will be announced in May, with the run-off stepping up to $95 billion a month combined for Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
There is no reliable estimate about how much tightening the run-off will add, Ms Shulyatyeva said.
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HEADLINE HERE
- I would recommend writing out the text in the body
- And then copy into this box
- It can be as long as you link
- But I recommend you use the bullet point function (see red square)
- Or try to keep the word count down
- Be wary of other embeds lengthy fact boxes could crash into
- That's about it
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
The Lowdown
Us
Director: Jordan Peele
Starring: Lupita Nyong'o, Winston Duke, Shahadi Wright Joseqph, Evan Alex and Elisabeth Moss
Rating: 4/5
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Canada
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What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
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Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
The specs: 2018 Maxus T60
Price, base / as tested: Dh48,000
Engine: 2.4-litre four-cylinder
Power: 136hp @ 1,600rpm
Torque: 360Nm @ 1,600 rpm
Transmission: Five-speed manual
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.1L / 100km
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday Benevento v Atalanta (2pm), Genoa v Bologna (5pm), AC Milan v Torino (7.45pm)
Sunday Roma v Inter Milan (3.30pm), Udinese v Napoli, Hellas Verona v Crotone, Parma v Lazio (2pm), Fiorentina v Cagliari (9pm), Juventus v Sassuolo (11.45pm)
Monday Spezia v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
No more lice
Defining head lice
Pediculus humanus capitis are tiny wingless insects that feed on blood from the human scalp. The adult head louse is up to 3mm long, has six legs, and is tan to greyish-white in colour. The female lives up to four weeks and, once mature, can lay up to 10 eggs per day. These tiny nits firmly attach to the base of the hair shaft, get incubated by body heat and hatch in eight days or so.
Identifying lice
Lice can be identified by itching or a tickling sensation of something moving within the hair. One can confirm that a person has lice by looking closely through the hair and scalp for nits, nymphs or lice. Head lice are most frequently located behind the ears and near the neckline.
Treating lice at home
Head lice must be treated as soon as they are spotted. Start by checking everyone in the family for them, then follow these steps. Remove and wash all clothing and bedding with hot water. Apply medicine according to the label instructions. If some live lice are still found eight to 12 hours after treatment, but are moving more slowly than before, do not re-treat. Comb dead and remaining live lice out of the hair using a fine-toothed comb.
After the initial treatment, check for, comb and remove nits and lice from hair every two to three days. Soak combs and brushes in hot water for 10 minutes.Vacuum the floor and furniture, particularly where the infested person sat or lay.
Courtesy Dr Vishal Rajmal Mehta, specialist paediatrics, RAK Hospital
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
FORSPOKEN
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Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
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Starfield
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