The Russia-Ukraine crisis has spurred investment in cryptocurrencies as more Russians and Ukrainians move towards the digital assets in the hope of keeping their money accessible.
The daily trading volume of both the Russian rouble-Bitcoin and Ukrainian hryvnia-Bitcoin have risen close to 270 per cent, according to research from Bankless Times.
“With citizens of both nations anxious about the future of their national currencies, recent data suggests that users have been flocking to crypto instead as a safe haven,” Khashayar Abbasi, an author with Bankless Times, said.
“From February 20 onwards, there is a clear uptick in trading volume for rouble pairs. A massive spike can be seen on [February] 24, which was the very day that Putin authorised special military operations in Ukraine,” Mr Abbasi said.
A similar pattern can be seen for Ukrainians, who may be seeking crypto exposure fearing collapse of their banking system. Owing to the Russia’s military offensive, many Ukrainians have fled their homes, leaving most of their possessions behind to escape the violence.
“By exchanging their assets into crypto, Ukrainians have the means to escape the country and carry some of their wealth with them,” Mr Abbasi said.
After initially falling to about $34,000 after Russia’s advance into Ukraine, Bitcoin has surged about 25 per cent since February 24.
It has risen almost 8.5 per cent in the past five days, and was trading at $42,441.90 at 9.43pm UAE time on Thursday.
Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, was trading at $2822.32 at 9.45pm UAE time. It has surged 1.4 per cent in the past five days.
On Monday, Russia’s central bank imposed capital controls and more than doubled interest rates to 20 per cent, their highest in nearly two decades, after the US and EU allies imposed tighter sanctions in response to its military offensive in Ukraine.
Ukraine, which has received a donation worth $33.8 million in digital currency since the start of Russia’s invasion, has also requested cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance to impose a blanket ban on Russian users.
Investors at large are viewing cryptocurrencies as a good place to store assets.
Kyle Waters, a research analyst at Coin Metrics, said crypto trading data confirms that recent geopolitical events have “more generally” increased demand for cryptocurrency, which can be transferred anywhere and without the need for a third party.
“This could go for anyone, and certainly could include everyday Russian and Ukrainian citizens trying to escape a devaluing local currency,” Mr Waters said.
Unlike fiat currencies, which must be moved through various third-party institutions, cryptocurrencies can be transferred from one user to another, dodging government sanctions and other restrictions.
Cryptocurrency exchanges are still trying to figure out how to deal with western sanctions against Russia.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
Avedis Hadjian, (IB Tauris)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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