The anticipated reduction of US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq is expected to spell the end of a golden era for many Middle East cargo airlines that carried large volumes of military freight.
As US and coalition forces conducted combat and peacekeeping missions in Afghanistan for nearly a decade, they employed dozens of civilian cargo companies to supplement their own military transport flights and move hundreds of thousands of tonnes of equipment into the landlocked nation.
The US alone spends hundreds of millions of dollars per year on airlifting equipment into the Middle East, cargo companies say. This drew as many as 50 cargo airlines, including several based in the UAE, into the market. Air cargo demand for the mission in Iraq is already down by up to 75 per cent, according to one estimate, and operators are also preparing for a gradual departure of troops and equipment from Afghanistan.
"The drawdown in Iraq was relatively fast," said Shahe Ouzounian, the chief operating officer of Chapman Freeborn, a UK aircraft charter broker.
In the case of Afghanistan, because of the larger number of coalition partners, the withdrawal of forces "will be more gradual, but you can tell maybe [US spending on airlift] has already peaked", he said.
That peak occurred between 2007 and last year, with the US spending up to US$500 million (Dh1.83bn) over a period of about 30 months on one single aircraft type, the Russian-built Antonov, Mr Ouzounian said, as well as on many other contracts with other operators and aircraft types. Gen David Petraeus, the top US commander in Afghanistan, said last month that some combat forces could return as part of the initial withdrawal this July.
That would lead to another, perhaps final cycle of high demand as equipment was flown out. However, much of the equipment will be moved by road into Pakistan and other countries, said James Eccleston, a senior adviser at Silk Way Holding, a logistics company.
Airlines also say they are preparing to diversify their incomes by focusing on other countries or on developing Afghanistan's domestic economy and exports.
East Horizon Airlines, which launches next month with a fleet of four turbo-prop aircraft, will primarily target Afghanistan's domestic cargo market. Peter Donlevy, the chief executive of East Horizon, said he was working with the country's agricultural community and the US agency for international development to identify export opportunities for items such as fruit and nuts.
These include a recent request to fly 3,900 tonnes of fresh pomegranates to Dubai and India over a nine-week period. East Horizon also plans to import construction materials and heavy equipment to serve the country's redevelopment as well as the operation of new mines for bauxite and iron ore.
"Our focus is on Afghanistan, rather than looking to exploit what is happening in Afghanistan," he said.
