British banks show signs of recovery, but hard to tell if crisis is over



Maybe it's the first sign of the green shoots of recovery. Britain's banks are suddenly a frenetic hive of activity, each apparently seeking to outdo the others by being first to the big move that will signal the end of the rolling crises that have overhung them since, well, the crisis.
It might be recovery. But on the other hand it might just be the beginning of another phase of the crisis. It's hard to tell at the moment.
The big three - Barclays, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) - are each probing a solution to the problems that have plagued them since 2008: the need for capital, the problems of having a dominant shareholder and the leadership challenge all three have endured.
I am not including HSBC here, although indeed the bank does face some of these problems, for the simple reason that it alone avoided the pressure to pull in outside shareholders at the height of the crisis, while the other three succumbed.
Barclays beat the others to it last week with the announcement of a £5.8 billion (Dh32.3bn) rights issue to bridge a gap largely caused by new banking regulations, themselves designed to bolster banks' balance sheets against a repetition of 2008.
Back then, Barclays managed to avoid having to go to the UK government cap in hand, but only because it got bailed out mainly by Middle East investors to the tune of £11.8bn.
It will be hoping the new fundraising - on the back of an improving share price - will not cause the regulatory problems the previous one did.
Lloyds is also struggling with legacy of a shareholder bail-out, although in this case the shareholder in question is the British government, which holds a 39 per cent stake in the bank.
Lloyds is regarded as something of a special case in British banking circles.
It is probably the most high street of the four banks that used to have that description and added an extra retail element when it was forced to take over Halifax Bank of Scotland during the crisis.
For this reason, Lloyds will probably be the first to test the stock market with a sale, or maybe even some kind of giveaway, for the shares the United Kingdom government still holds.
A privatisation of the government holding, in total worth some £18bn, is likely to begin before the end of this year. That could be knocked off course by all sorts of considerations, especially by the volatile state of global markets. The third case is the most problematic of the three. RBS came to symbolise the worst excesses of the boom years of British banking, and needed a much bigger bail-out by the government than the other two. The British taxpayer has a stake of 82 per cent on its hands, which it would like to be rid of as soon as possible.
Unfortunately, that day still seems as far away as ever, not least because the government cannot seem to find anybody who agrees with its view of the future path RBS should tread.
Should it be a full-blown global bank, with all the knobs and whistles of investment banking that are deemed to have got RBS in trouble in the first place? Or should it be slimmed down to the core retail banking business essential for the needs of UK customers?
Stephen Hester, who quit suddenly as the chief executive a few weeks ago, was obviously not the man. Now there is a debate as to who should succeed him.
The hot favourite is Ross McEwan, who has been the head of RBS retail banking for the past year.
If Mr McEwan gets the job, it will tell us a lot about what's in store for RBS, as well as for its operations around the world.
 
fkane@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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