Four analysts polled by Bloomberg had forecast a median profit of Dh2.55bn for the period. Pawan Singh / The National
Four analysts polled by Bloomberg had forecast a median profit of Dh2.55bn for the period. Pawan Singh / The National

Emirates NBD third quarter net profit soars 16%, beating analysts' estimates



Emirates NBD, Dubai’s biggest bank, posted a 16 per cent increase in third-quarter net profit, beating analyst estimates, as net interest income rose.

Net profit attributable to equity holders rose to Dh2.64 billion from the year earlier period, the lender said on Tuesday in a bourse filing to the Dubai Financial Market, where its shares are listed. The results beat the median profit estimate of Dh2.55bn of four analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Revenue in the third quarter rose 26 per cent to Dh4.4bn from the same period a year earlier. Net interest income rose 18 per cent to Dh3.3bn.

“The operating performance...was satisfying as all business segments delivered a year-on-year increase in both operating income and contribution to group profit,” said Surya Subramanian, the chief financial officer of the lender. “Margins continued to improve as rate rises flowed through to loan book which more than offset a rise in deposit costs.”

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Banks across most of the GCC are expected to see improved financial performance in 2018 due to an uptick in the regional economy, analysts have said. In March, Abdul Aziz Al Ghurair, chairman of the UAE Banks Federation, forecast loan growth of as much as 6 per cent on aggregate for banks in the UAE, compared to 4 per cent in 2017.

Non-interest margins (NIMs) improved 31 basis points year-on-year to 2.87 per cent “as rate rises flowed through to loan book which more than offset a rise in deposit costs on a change in deposit mix,” the bank added.

Costs in the third quarter rose 15 per cent year-on-year to Dh1.5bn due to higher staff and IT costs in relation to the bank’s digital transformation and technology push.

“Costs were higher as a result of international branch expansion, VAT, advertising and Expo 2020 sponsorship,” the lender said.

Emirates NBD’s non-interest income fell 1 per cent year-on-year to Dh1.15bn due to lower income from investment securities. Provisions fell by 18 per cent year-on-year to Dh353m.

“The bank reported strong performance across line items with NIM expansion, healthy balance sheet performance and lower provisioning,” said Chiro Ghosh, an analyst with Sico Bank in Bahrain. “The only weak aspect was perhaps the surge in operating expense.”

Sico is forecasting Emirates NBD full year earnings at Dh8.6bn, but the Dubai lender could well beat it. Last year, Emirates NBD said it plans to invest Dh1 billion on digitising part of its operations over the next three years.

Emirates NBD, which has operations in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, India, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and representative offices in China and Indonesia, is expanding its footprint to boost revenue amid limited opportunities for growth in the UAE market, where more than 50 lenders operate.

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How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
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