Banking stocks soar on consolidation rumours


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Banking stocks soared yesterday after consolidation rumours and a possible bailout agreement in Washington boosted market confidence. Following months of falling liquidity through lower deposits and rising interbank interest rates, speculation that Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) and National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) were to join forces lifted their shares, which closed up 6.91 per cent and 4.29 per cent respectively.

Senior executives at both banks, however, said they were unaware of any possible merger talks. "We discussed [the rumours] at our management meeting and we received no instructions from the board or the higher authorities," said Abdullah Salah Abdul Rahim, the chief operating officer of NBAD. "We have no information at all about a merger." Eirvin Knox, the chief executive of ADCB, said: "I have no information on this. I am not aware of anything that is happening."

However, traders said some form of consolidation now looked inevitable since the credit crunch had begun to affect the GCC. Mortgage lending is being cut, the Emirates interbank offered rate (Eibor) has been increasing since June and the Central Bank has had to step in to provide banks with a Dh50 billion (US$13.6bn) loan - all signs of a severe credit crunch. Yesterday, the Eibor increased to 3.96 per cent, compared to 3.76 per cent last Thursday, a huge increase that takes it to the highest level since early this year.

"There are some rumours that the Abu Dhabi market will witness some mergers and acquisitions in the banking and real estate sectors," said Ahmed Hamdy, the senior relationship manager at Prime Emirates. "ADCB is one of the banks likely to be involved," he said. The rumours boosted the entire banking sector: Emirates NBD rose 4.79 per cent, Dubai Islamic Bank 5.63 per cent and First Gulf Bank 2.17 per cent. The banking indexes on the Dubai Financial Market and Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange rose by 3.46 and 2.60 per cent respectively.

* With Reuters afoxwell@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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