The Bank of England is considering an interest rate hike, but the economy shows no signs of positive movement. Mary Turner / Reuters
The Bank of England is considering an interest rate hike, but the economy shows no signs of positive movement. Mary Turner / Reuters
The Bank of England is considering an interest rate hike, but the economy shows no signs of positive movement. Mary Turner / Reuters
The Bank of England is considering an interest rate hike, but the economy shows no signs of positive movement. Mary Turner / Reuters

Bank of England official says Christmas Brexit deadline a must


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The Bank of England’s (BOE) head of supervision said a Brexit transition deal must be reached by the end of the year to provide assurance to financial firms as they prepare for life after the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union.

“If we get to Christmas and the negotiations have not reached any agreement on this topic, diminishing marginal returns will kick in,” said Sam Woods, the chief executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA). “Firms would start discounting the likelihood of a transition in the central case of their planning.”

The British prime minister Theresa May has pledged to secure a two-year transition period after Brexit in March 2019, but the EU’s position “is not yet clear”, Mr Woods said. Some big investment banks with their European headquarters in London have decided Mrs May’s promise last month was too little, too late, and are forging ahead with plans to create new trading hubs elsewhere in the region.

Mr Woods’ Christmas deadline is consistent with comments he made in Parliament in December 2016, when he said: “I would not want to be sitting here in a year’s time, a transitional not having been agreed.” In August, he said the workload caused by Brexit is likely to be a “material extra burden”, forcing the BOE to make tough decisions on priorities.

Mr Woods on Wednesday said a transition arrangement would “not only help mitigate the Day 1 risks, but will also enable firms to adjust to the new relationship in an orderly way”.

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The PRA also published two sets of proposals on Wednesday covering measures to address “double leverage” in banking groups planning for resolution and changes to the regulator’s large exposures framework.

Double leverage occurs occurs when a parent company sells outside investors senior debt to fund more junior - and therefore more expensive - debt or equity at a subsidiary and profits from the price difference. That can lead to problems servicing the new debt if the subsidiary gets into trouble and can’t pay the parent the coupons or dividends it needs to pay the outside investors.

A UK bank might decide to go down this route should a host-country supervisor force a subsidiary to have “an outsize portion” of the group’s capital, he said.

“We will expect firms to demonstrate to us that they can manage the cash-flow and other risks associated with double leverage,” Mr Woods said. “And we will reserve the right to set double leverage limits or apply capital add-ons for group risk if we are not satisfied.”

The PRA also plans to boost reporting requirements for capital and liquidity to gain the information needed to decide whether lenders are using resources appropriately across jurisdictions and currencies. It will also use its powers under the senior managers regime to ensure someone is responsible for the submissions.

The PRA is also consulting on changes to its large-exposure framework, which sets out how much of a firm’s capital can be at risk to the rest of its group. While EU law sets the limit at 25 per cent, supervisors have discretion to exempt some exposures.

The supervisor plans to allow firms exposed to “certain cross-border group entities” to raise their exposure to 100 per cent of eligible capital from 25 per cent, according to the document. It will also allow firms to apply to exempt from the large exposure limit loss-absorbing bonds positioned at overseas units known as minimum requirements for eligible liabilities and own funds.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Our legal consultants

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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