Boeing forecasts 44,000 new commercial planes by 2043 as aviation sector grows

About 2.4 million jobs and record $4.4 trillion in market services value will result in next two decades, report says

A Boeing 777X flight test aircraft is parked at Boeing's Everett Delivery Centre in Everett, Washington state. The US plane maker expects global passenger air traffic to grow at an average of 4.7 per cent annually until 2043. AFPShow less

US plane maker Boeing has said that demand for new commercial aeroplanes will grow 3.2 per cent annually to hit 43,975 deliveries by 2043, as air passenger travel continues to exceed levels reported before the coronavirus pandemic.

About three quarters, or 33,380, of those jets will be single-aisle variants, which will continue to be the driver for the industry for the next two decades, the Virginia-based company said in its Commercial Market Outlook on Friday.

The world's wide-body fleet is forecast to more than double to 8,065 in that time, with twin-aisle variants accounting for 44 per cent of the Middle East's fleet, Boeing said ahead of the five-day Farnborough International Airshow in the UK, which begins on July 22.

Regional jets and freighters would account for 1,525 and 1,005, respectively.

Overall, the aviation sector's global fleet would hit 50,170 aircraft in 2043, nearly double its estimated number at present, it said.

Passenger air traffic, meanwhile, is projected to grow at an average of 4.7 per cent annually over the next two decades, as the number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels, although nearly 20 per cent of them are new, the report said.

All these would require the aviation sector to hire around 2.4 million personnel and result in $4.4 trillion in market services value, Boeing said.

Boeing – mired in operational and legal challenges – attributes its growth estimates to air travel demand continuing to outpace economic growth “in an increasingly connected world”, after being grounded by the pandemic.

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It has also declared that air traffic growth has returned to the long-term trend it forecast 20 years ago.

“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through continuing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” Brad McMullen, senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing, wrote in a statement.

The global aviation industry has enjoyed a resurgence in the past years after bearing the brunt of the pandemic, as air passengers renew their travel plans.

Boeing's aircraft demand forecast, however, is lower than estimates from its European rival Airbus, which said this week that the world will have 48,230 planes by 2043, compared with 24,240 at the beginning of 2024.

Global air traffic is expected to more than double in the next 20 years, Toulouse-based Airbus said, agreeing that air travel has recovered from the pandemic, boosted by expanding economies.

Airbus has predicted that air traffic will increase by nearly 8 per cent annually until 2027 as the industry quickly recovers from Covid-related losses, before stabilising at a growth rate of 3.6 per cent per year until 2043, it said in its 2024 Global Market Forecast.

Aviation players are also focusing more on new-generation aircraft that are more sustainable and would help operational efficiencies.

“As airlines respond to robust passenger demand, the services market continues to expand, not only as a result of fleet growth, but also with an increased focus on reducing operating costs and deploying efficient and sustainable solutions,” said Dan Abraham, senior vice president of global services commercial sales and marketing at Boeing.

Boeing forecasts the Eurasia region topping both deliveries and overall fleet through 2043 at 9,785 and 11,105 planes, respectively. North America, China, South-East Asia and the Middle East round out the top five.

Traffic growth, however, by 2043 will be led by South Asia at 7.4 per cent, followed by Southeast Asia, Africa, China and Latin America.

Average global airline fares are similar to what they were 20 years ago, even as overall consumer prices doubled, Boeing said.

The global air cargo fleet, meanwhile, is expected to grow by two thirds by 2043, which will account for 4.1 per cent of annual air cargo traffic growth, the company said.