The global airline industry’s revenue is projected to grow 7.6 per cent year on year to a record $964 billion in 2024, driven by high demand for travel, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
The aviation trade body forecasts the industry's net profit to surge by more than 10 per cent annually to $25.7 billion next year, after bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels, it said on Wednesday.
“People love to travel and that has helped airlines to come roaring back to pre-Covid pandemic levels of connectivity,” said Willie Walsh, Iata's director general.
About 4.7 billion people are expected to travel next year, exceeding the pre-pandemic level of 4.5 billion recorded in 2019, as per Iata estimates.
Geneva-based Iata’s latest data supports the industry’s optimism.
Its November passenger polling data found 44 per cent of respondents will travel more next year than last.
About one third of travellers polled say they are travelling more than they did pre-pandemic and 49 per cent said their travel habits are now similar to before Covid.
“The speed of the recovery has been extraordinary … yet it also appears that the pandemic has cost aviation about four years of growth,” Mr Walsh said. "From 2024, the outlook indicates that we can expect more normal growth patterns for both passenger and cargo."
Next year, the airline industry’s operating profits are expected to increase to $49.3 billion from $40.7 billion this year. Cargo volumes are expected to reach 58 million and 61 million tonnes in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Expenses are expected to increase by 6.9 per cent annually to $914 billion next year, Iata said.
Passenger revenue is forecast to reach $717 billion in 2024, an annual jump of 12 per cent. An inventory of 40.1 million flights is expected to be available in 2024, exceeding the 2019 level of 38.9 million and up from the 36.8 million flights expected this year.
Reflecting the tight supply and demand conditions, efficiency levels are high with the load factor expected to be 82.6 per cent in 2024, slightly better than the 82 per cent recorded this year and in 2019.
Load factor is a metric that measures the percentage of available seating capacity that has been filled with passengers.
Cargo revenue is expected to fall to $111 billion in 2024 from a peak of $210 billion in 2021 but it is above 2019 revenue of $101 billion.
Airlines are expected to consume 99 billion gallons of fuel in 2024 and produce 939 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.
Iata said fuel price is expected to average $113.8 per barrel next year, which will translate into a total fuel bill of $281 billion, accounting for 31 per cent of all operating costs.
However, Iata noted industry profitability is fragile and could be affected (positively or negatively) by various factors. These include global economic developments, wars, supply-chain disruption and regulatory risks.
“Airlines will always compete ferociously for their customers, but they remain far too burdened by onerous regulation, fragmentation, high infrastructure costs and a supply chain populated with oligopolies,” said Mr Walsh.
North America remains the standout region in terms of financial performance, Iata revealed. It was the first market to return to profitability last year and build on this performance in 2023 by delivering efficiency particularly in high passenger load factors.
The Middle East is expected to deliver a strong financial performance both this year and next. Its airlines have been “swift to rebuild their international networks and restore their super-connector hubs”, Iata said.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
