The possibility of Lebanese depositors soon gaining access up to $93 billion stuck in the country's banks is slim to none, financial analysts say, despite assurances from the Lebanese economy minister.
“The return of depositors’ funds will be extremely complicated and politically charged,” Walid Abousleiman, co-founder of Cyprus-based financial services company Aksys Global Markets, told The National.
“Despite repeated promises, there’s no credible or comprehensive financial recovery plan in place, especially one backed by solid legislation and international support. Without such a plan, I don’t see a full return of deposits happening anytime soon.”
On Monday, Economy Minister Amer Bisat said depositors will receive their funds "over time" as part of an overhaul of the Lebanese financial system. The state, central bank and lenders in the country will share the burden of repairing the crisis-stricken economy, he told Bloomberg TV in an interview.
“Depositor protection is an extremely important part of the objectives that we have in place. That may require instruments, that may require delays, or some time passage in order to pay, but the idea is that nobody would lose their deposits. But it may take time,” said Mr Bisat.
Customers have been waiting to access their life savings stuck in banks for the past six years, as the country endures a severe financial crisis.
Lebanese banks imposed arbitrary restrictions on their clients in 2019 after the state failed to honour its bond commitments and the economy went into a tailspin. The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated the economic crisis to historic proportions.
Withdrawal limits
The economic collapse was blamed on decades of financial mismanagement and corruption by Lebanon's ruling elite. Former central bank governor Riad Salameh has also been accused of helping to embezzle hundreds of millions of dollars from the central bank.
Currently, there are strict withdrawal limits and most customers can only access up to $500 a month. The limit is at $250 a month for certain newer accounts. Annual withdrawal ceilings range from $5,100 to $6,800, depending on when the account was enrolled.
Lump-sum withdrawals of full balances are not permitted, and exceeding the monthly or annual limit can result in suspension of withdrawal rights altogether.
Political will
Analysts say a transparent restructuring of the banking sector, as well as a clear assessment of losses and international assistance, is required before a phased repayment for depositors can begin.
The political will to resolve the crisis and the injection of capital into the banking system, with the support of international creditors, is a must for the process to even begin, they added.
In April 2022, Lebanon reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on a comprehensive economic reform programme supported by a 46-month extended fund facility, proposing access to about $3 billion. However, Lebanese authorities have been accused of dragging their feet on the required reforms.
"There is no resolution of frozen access to customer deposits without a major injection of capital into the banking system and that goes back to the government's ability to persuade international creditors that it is prepared to commit to and implementing long-delayed necessary structural and, for some, painful economic and governance reform,” said Hasnain Malik, head of emerging and frontier markets equity strategy at Tellimer.
“What will never be made is the loss of livelihoods and wealth for depositors who have been without access for years and will never be able to dollarise their deposits at the currency exchange rate before they lost access."
Lebanon's currency has lost more than 90 per cent of its value since the financial crisis began in 2019, hitting the economy hard.
Value of deposits
The total value of frozen depositors’ funds in Lebanese banks as of early 2025 is estimated between $86 billion to $93 billion, spread across approximately 1.26 million accounts, according to Hassan Fawaz, chairman and founder of the international brokerage house of GivTrade.
Most small accounts have already been partially settled, with the remaining frozen funds largely held in medium and large accounts.
“The financial gap between what banks owe and their available assets is around $80 billion, making the full return of deposits a major challenge and dependent on comprehensive financial and political reforms, he said.
The government appears to be taking concrete steps towards reform, including passing banking secrecy amendments and a banking restructuring law but the "implementation of these reforms, the burden-sharing negotiations among stakeholders, and the actual mechanisms for returning deposits will likely require years of sustained effort", he added.
Real action
Meanwhile, customers whose money remains stuck in banks are demanding "real action" from the country's new leadership to ensure the return of their hard-earned savings.
“We hope to get our money back, but I think by the time that happens, it will have lost most of its value – it already has,” said Arze Chalfoun, 55, owner of a photography studio. “What really matters now is restoring trust in the banking system. We have faith in the new leadership, but we need to see real action.”
The election this year of Joseph Aoun as president and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister were widely seen as a turning point after years of political paralysis.
Their rise to power revived hopes for long-overdue institutional and economic overhaul. Lebanon’s new leadership has pledged to tackle the country’s deep-rooted financial collapse, which was compounded by a year-long war between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Banking system restructuring
A cornerstone of the government’s recovery plan is the restructuring of the banking sector – a key requirement set by the IMF for unlocking billions in financial assistance. The appointment of a new central bank governor in March has further signalled a commitment to rebuilding monetary credibility, amid urgent calls to stabilise the currency and address depositors’ frozen funds.
While international donors have expressed cautious encouragement, much hinges on the government's ability to translate promises into tangible steps and restore public trust in state institutions.
"Years of mismanagement and corruption led us to where we are today – we need to address the root causes before people can expect to get their funds back,” Elie Fayad, a 32-year-old Lebanese banker told The National. “Reforms must be implemented, starting with passing the bank secrecy law.”
Last week, the Lebanese government approved a draft law to reform and restructure the country’s banking sector, marking a significant step towards addressing the financial crisis. Lebanon’s Finance Minister Yassine Jaber said that he expects banking secrecy law to be passed in parliament within days. Some Lebanese officials have accused former Central Bank Governor Salameh of using bank secrecy laws to justify withholding information.
The legislative push came shortly after a visit by the US deputy special envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, who stressed the urgent need for Lebanon to pass key financial laws to restore confidence in the banking sector and curb illicit financial flows.
Lebanese ministers, along with the new central bank chief, are expected to attend the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington next week.
