The possibility of Lebanese depositors soon gaining access up to $93 billion stuck in the country's banks is slim to none, financial analysts say, despite assurances from the Lebanese economy minister.
“The return of depositors’ funds will be extremely complicated and politically charged,” Walid Abousleiman, co-founder of Cyprus-based financial services company Aksys Global Markets, told The National.
“Despite repeated promises, there’s no credible or comprehensive financial recovery plan in place, especially one backed by solid legislation and international support. Without such a plan, I don’t see a full return of deposits happening anytime soon.”
On Monday, Economy Minister Amer Bisat said depositors will receive their funds "over time" as part of an overhaul of the Lebanese financial system. The state, central bank and lenders in the country will share the burden of repairing the crisis-stricken economy, he told Bloomberg TV in an interview.
“Depositor protection is an extremely important part of the objectives that we have in place. That may require instruments, that may require delays, or some time passage in order to pay, but the idea is that nobody would lose their deposits. But it may take time,” said Mr Bisat.
Customers have been waiting to access their life savings stuck in banks for the past six years, as the country endures a severe financial crisis.
Lebanese banks imposed arbitrary restrictions on their clients in 2019 after the state failed to honour its bond commitments and the economy went into a tailspin. The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated the economic crisis to historic proportions.
Withdrawal limits
The economic collapse was blamed on decades of financial mismanagement and corruption by Lebanon's ruling elite. Former central bank governor Riad Salameh has also been accused of helping to embezzle hundreds of millions of dollars from the central bank.
Currently, there are strict withdrawal limits and most customers can only access up to $500 a month. The limit is at $250 a month for certain newer accounts. Annual withdrawal ceilings range from $5,100 to $6,800, depending on when the account was enrolled.
Lump-sum withdrawals of full balances are not permitted, and exceeding the monthly or annual limit can result in suspension of withdrawal rights altogether.
Political will
Analysts say a transparent restructuring of the banking sector, as well as a clear assessment of losses and international assistance, is required before a phased repayment for depositors can begin.
The political will to resolve the crisis and the injection of capital into the banking system, with the support of international creditors, is a must for the process to even begin, they added.
In April 2022, Lebanon reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on a comprehensive economic reform programme supported by a 46-month extended fund facility, proposing access to about $3 billion. However, Lebanese authorities have been accused of dragging their feet on the required reforms.
"There is no resolution of frozen access to customer deposits without a major injection of capital into the banking system and that goes back to the government's ability to persuade international creditors that it is prepared to commit to and implementing long-delayed necessary structural and, for some, painful economic and governance reform,” said Hasnain Malik, head of emerging and frontier markets equity strategy at Tellimer.
“What will never be made is the loss of livelihoods and wealth for depositors who have been without access for years and will never be able to dollarise their deposits at the currency exchange rate before they lost access."
Lebanon's currency has lost more than 90 per cent of its value since the financial crisis began in 2019, hitting the economy hard.
Value of deposits
The total value of frozen depositors’ funds in Lebanese banks as of early 2025 is estimated between $86 billion to $93 billion, spread across approximately 1.26 million accounts, according to Hassan Fawaz, chairman and founder of the international brokerage house of GivTrade.
Most small accounts have already been partially settled, with the remaining frozen funds largely held in medium and large accounts.
“The financial gap between what banks owe and their available assets is around $80 billion, making the full return of deposits a major challenge and dependent on comprehensive financial and political reforms, he said.
The government appears to be taking concrete steps towards reform, including passing banking secrecy amendments and a banking restructuring law but the "implementation of these reforms, the burden-sharing negotiations among stakeholders, and the actual mechanisms for returning deposits will likely require years of sustained effort", he added.
Real action
Meanwhile, customers whose money remains stuck in banks are demanding "real action" from the country's new leadership to ensure the return of their hard-earned savings.
“We hope to get our money back, but I think by the time that happens, it will have lost most of its value – it already has,” said Arze Chalfoun, 55, owner of a photography studio. “What really matters now is restoring trust in the banking system. We have faith in the new leadership, but we need to see real action.”
The election this year of Joseph Aoun as president and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister were widely seen as a turning point after years of political paralysis.
Their rise to power revived hopes for long-overdue institutional and economic overhaul. Lebanon’s new leadership has pledged to tackle the country’s deep-rooted financial collapse, which was compounded by a year-long war between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Banking system restructuring
A cornerstone of the government’s recovery plan is the restructuring of the banking sector – a key requirement set by the IMF for unlocking billions in financial assistance. The appointment of a new central bank governor in March has further signalled a commitment to rebuilding monetary credibility, amid urgent calls to stabilise the currency and address depositors’ frozen funds.
While international donors have expressed cautious encouragement, much hinges on the government's ability to translate promises into tangible steps and restore public trust in state institutions.
"Years of mismanagement and corruption led us to where we are today – we need to address the root causes before people can expect to get their funds back,” Elie Fayad, a 32-year-old Lebanese banker told The National. “Reforms must be implemented, starting with passing the bank secrecy law.”
Last week, the Lebanese government approved a draft law to reform and restructure the country’s banking sector, marking a significant step towards addressing the financial crisis. Lebanon’s Finance Minister Yassine Jaber said that he expects banking secrecy law to be passed in parliament within days. Some Lebanese officials have accused former Central Bank Governor Salameh of using bank secrecy laws to justify withholding information.
The legislative push came shortly after a visit by the US deputy special envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, who stressed the urgent need for Lebanon to pass key financial laws to restore confidence in the banking sector and curb illicit financial flows.
Lebanese ministers, along with the new central bank chief, are expected to attend the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington next week.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Credit Score explained
What is a credit score?
In the UAE your credit score is a number generated by the Al Etihad Credit Bureau (AECB), which represents your credit worthiness – in other words, your risk of defaulting on any debt repayments. In this country, the number is between 300 and 900. A low score indicates a higher risk of default, while a high score indicates you are a lower risk.
Why is it important?
Financial institutions will use it to decide whether or not you are a credit risk. Those with better scores may also receive preferential interest rates or terms on products such as loans, credit cards and mortgages.
How is it calculated?
The AECB collects information on your payment behaviour from banks as well as utilitiy and telecoms providers.
How can I improve my score?
By paying your bills on time and not missing any repayments, particularly your loan, credit card and mortgage payments. It is also wise to limit the number of credit card and loan applications you make and to reduce your outstanding balances.
How do I know if my score is low or high?
By checking it. Visit one of AECB’s Customer Happiness Centres with an original and valid Emirates ID, passport copy and valid email address. Liv. customers can also access the score directly from the banking app.
How much does it cost?
A credit report costs Dh100 while a report with the score included costs Dh150. Those only wanting the credit score pay Dh60. VAT is payable on top.
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
