Saudi investment bank Jadwa Investment has raised its growth forecast for Saudi Arabia this year after the kingdom's economy showed strong expansion in both oil and non-oil activities in the first half of 2022.
Gross domestic product of the Arab world's largest economy is now forecast at 8.7 per cent compared with a previous 7.7 per cent estimate after it expanded 3.2 per cent in 2021, Jadwa said in a new report.
The investment bank's estimate is higher than the International Monetary Fund's 7.6 per cent forecast for this year. The kingdom’s economy is set to grow at the quickest pace in a decade and could be one of the world’s fastest-growing economies this year, the IMF said in August.
Saudi Arabia’s economy grew 12.2 per cent in the second quarter, exceeding initial estimates and registering the fastest expansion since the third quarter of 2011. This was due to higher oil prices, data from the kingdom’s General Authority for Statistics showed earlier this month. The expansion followed the kingdom posting the strongest growth rate among the world's largest economies in the first quarter of this year.
Oil GDP is expected to rise by an annual 16.6 per cent in 2022 compared with a previous 15.5 per cent estimate, Jadwa said. Non-oil growth is forecast to rise by 4.3 per cent, primarily due to higher non-oil private sector growth of 4.4 per cent, compared with a previous 3.4 per cent forecast.
Oil GDP will continue to grow in the second half the year, due to higher annual Saudi oil output and continued growth in the petroleum refining sector. However, this growth would be at a slower rate than in the first six months of 2022, the investment bank said.
It projects government revenue will increase by an annual 38 per cent to about 1.338 trillion riyals ($357 billion) in 2022. Jadwa said there would also be a fiscal surplus totalling 335bn riyals, which is equivalent to 8.7 per cent of GDP.
Despite a surge in oil prices during the second quarter of this year, Jadwa maintained its forecast for Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, at $102 per barrel for 2022. It said there would be a slight upward revision in the kingdom’s average oil output to 10.6 million barrels per day from 10.5m bpd.
"Looking forward, we expect this growth to continue in the second half of the year, which, in turn, has led us to upgrade our full year 2022 GDP forecast," Jadwa said. "More specifically, we see higher growth in three sectors: non-oil manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels and transport, storage and communication."
The non-oil manufacturing’ sector grew by 8 per cent in the first half of the year from the same period a year earlier. This was due to an increase in the value of the kingdom’s non-oil exports.
The Index of Industrial Production surged an average of 23 per cent in the year to July. This was buttressed by more than 700 new industrial factories that started production, which are worth 21 billion riyals and created 31,000 new jobs over the same period.
Continued growth of non-oil exports combined with a rise in investments in manufacturing will provide additional support to the sector’s expansion, Jadwa said.
After growing by 8.6 per cent In the year to July 2022 from the same period in 2021, consumer spending rose is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year. More planned entertainment, leisure and sports events, in addition to the recently issued Hayya card that allows access to the kingdom for World Cup visitors in neighbouring Qatar, will spur growth.
Inflation in the kingdom rose by an average of 2.2 per cent during the year to August. This makes Saudi Arabia one of the G20 countries with the lowest levels of inflation. Inflation in the US and UK is at four-decade highs and at record levels in Europe.
The kingdom's transport, storage and communication sector expanded by 6.8 per cent year-on-year in the first of 2022 as most travel restrictions related to Covid-19 were lifted. This paved the way for a rebound across all of the sector's main segments.
Saudi Arabia Railways carried more than 2.3 million passengers in the first six months of the year. This was a 121 per cent increase from the same period last year, in addition to a 24 per cent jump in cargo transportation.
Growth of the sector is expected to continue in the second half of the year on higher inbound and outbound travel. Jadwa said this would also result from more programmes and projects being introduced under the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, which was announced in June 2021.
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Fixtures:
Thursday:
Hatta v Al Jazira, 4.55pm
Al Wasl v Dibba, 7.45pm
Friday:
Al Dhafra v Al Nasr, 5.05pm
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Wahda, 7.45pm
Saturday:
Ajman v Emirates, 4.55pm
Al Ain v Sharjah, 7.45pm
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-cylinder%202.0L%20TSI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20clutch%207-speed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320HP%20%2F%20235kW%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20400Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20%2449%2C709%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
THE DRAFT
The final phase of player recruitment for the T10 League has taken place, with UAE and Indian players being drafted to each of the eight teams.
Bengal Tigers
UAE players: Chirag Suri, Mohammed Usman
Indian: Zaheer Khan
Karachians
UAE players: Ahmed Raza, Ghulam Shabber
Indian: Pravin Tambe
Kerala Kings
UAE players: Mohammed Naveed, Abdul Shakoor
Indian: RS Sodhi
Maratha Arabians
UAE players: Zahoor Khan, Amir Hayat
Indian: S Badrinath
Northern Warriors
UAE players: Imran Haider, Rahul Bhatia
Indian: Amitoze Singh
Pakhtoons
UAE players: Hafiz Kaleem, Sheer Walli
Indian: RP Singh
Punjabi Legends
UAE players: Shaiman Anwar, Sandy Singh
Indian: Praveen Kumar
Rajputs
UAE players: Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed
Indian: Munaf Patel
Australia tour of Pakistan
March 4-8: First Test, Rawalpindi
March 12-16: Second Test, Karachi
March 21-25: Third Test, Lahore
March 29: First ODI, Rawalpindi
March 31: Second ODI, Rawalpindi
April 2: Third ODI, Rawalpindi
April 5: T20I, Rawalpindi
Persuasion
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarrie%20Cracknell%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDakota%20Johnson%2C%20Cosmo%20Jarvis%2C%20Richard%20E%20Grant%2C%20Henry%20Golding%20and%20Nikki%20Amuka-Bird%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More coverage from the Future Forum
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Tathoor, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 1,000m
Winner: Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
Winner: Aiz Alawda, Fernando Jara, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
Winner: ES Nahawand, Fernando Jara, Mohammed Daggash
7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Winked, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Al Ain Mile Group 3 (PA) Dh350,000 1,600m
Winner: Somoud, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
8pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Al Jazi, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
More on Palestine-Israeli relations
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
