Update: For the latest on the earthquakes which have struck Iran in April 2013 click here
The Middle East may not possess the same reputation for seismic disasters as some other parts of the world, but that is of little comfort to the people of north-west Iran, over 300 of whom were killed when a twin earthquake struck the country's mountainous region earlier this year. Destroying villages and injuring many thousands, the two six-plus magnitude quakes - striking the same location north-east of the city of Tabriz and spaced just 11 minutes apart - were among the worst to hit Iran since 2003, when an earthquake killed 25,000 people in the city of Bam.
Yet, if one Tel Aviv-based scientist is right, then Iran, which straddles a major fault line and has an unenviable reputation for seismic activity, is not the only part of the Middle East with a reason to fear for the safety of its towns and cities. Research conducted by Dr Shmulik Marco, an academic at the department of geophysics and planetary sciences at Tel Aviv University, has suggested that a seven-plus magnitude earthquake would imperil one of the region's most sacred places, encompassing such cities as Ramallah, Bethlehem and Jerusalem, raising fears of mass casualties and the destruction of holy sites.
"We fear that a major earthquake in the Holy Land is imminent," says Marco, whose research led him to conclude that following four major earthquakes in the region some 300 to 400 years apart in roughly the first millennium, the last 1,000 years of quiescence are a matter of grave concern for all in the Holy Land.
"Earthquakes are generated at the boundary between any two of the earth's tectonic plates that move relative to each other," explains Marco, who used a combination of scientific and historical research to deduce that the Holy Land is due an earthquake of potentially epic proportions.
"The friction does not allow smooth motion, so when the plate driving forces overcome the friction, the boundary ruptures as the plates move suddenly. This sudden rupture shakes the region and we call it an earthquake. The longer the plates move without rupturing, the more stress accumulates … Consequently, long periods of quiescence indicate that large stresses have been built up. The stresses will have to be released - sooner rather than later - in the next big earthquake."
Based on the translations of documents written in Latin, Greek and Arabic, and sourced from a number of religious institutions, Marco managed to ascertain that the region was pummeled by several major earthquakes in the years 31BC, AD363, AD749 and AD1033, and though this 300- to 400-year trend ended there, it was a pattern that sat uneasily with Marco himself.
"We know that earthquakes happen where they have happened before, so their location shouldn't come as any surprise. In our research we wanted to ask whether there was any pattern to their occurrence and what we could learn from past earthquakes. From that we wanted to learn about two things: first, about the phenomena itself, and second, assess the hazard or risk to human life.
"For [geologists], earthquakes are just like the noise or [heart]beat of the earth, just like a doctor who uses a stethoscope to listen to your body. And, from my geological observations where I examined the fine laminated sediments which had been disrupted by earthquakes near the Dead Sea Fault in the past, I managed to corroborate the historical accounts, which made it clear to me that all of us in the region should be worried."
The four major earthquakes occurred along the Jordan Valley - itself part of the Jordan Rift Valley - and were accounted for in the many ancient letters and reports, which the Tel Aviv-based geologist used to piece together his clues. Written by monks and clergy, in monasteries and churches, and even by hermits in the desert, the documents, many in the form of correspondence to Europe requesting funding for church repairs, were deciphered by an international team of historians whose assistance, says Marco, proved crucial to his findings.
"These documents were dated, and in order to read them, I needed the expertise of historians, which enabled me to [substantiate] my geological records. But, the historical records are not like reading today's newspapers. They used different calendars, were in different languages, and many terms that we use today were different to how they were used 1,000 years ago. So, it took a lot of detective work, and you had to cross-check and understand what the background was, what the political situation was like and you always wondered whether you had the whole record put into writing."
Marco's theory may be compelling, but other experts advise caution. Dr Roger Musson, head of seismic hazard and archives at the British Geological Survey, says that while the view from Tel Aviv carries weight, in many seismological circles other theories demand equal billing.
"Earthquakes do not go like clockwork, so if you calculate the average time between major earthquakes from the catalogue and then extrapolate that into the future, you will get into trouble," asserts Musson, flagging up one counter-theory.
"What tends to happen is that earthquakes go in clusters. So, you get a hot period when you have a number of large earthquakes following each other in short intervals and then a cold period when they stop and you can wait 1,000 years or 2,000 years before you get another hot period - so that seems definitely to apply to the Dead Sea Fault."
Musson, citing a recent study by seismologists in Strasbourg, who, after delving into prehistoric times, found "clear evidence" for the clustering of seismic activity along the Dead Sea Fault, disputes Marco's certainty that a major earthquake in the region is imminent.
"The fact that we haven't had a major earthquake in, let's say the Jordan Valley since the 11th century, indicates that the cluster that ended in AD1033 has stopped and we're now waiting for the next cluster," explains the Edinburgh-based seismologist, who also raises the possibility that "some of the energy that would go to being stored up for large earthquakes on the Dead Sea Fault is actually being dissipated in non-ridged deformation off the coast" as another plausible explanation for the millennium-long quiescence period.
"It's much harder to anticipate how long the waiting period is between clusters than it is the waiting period between earthquakes when you're in a cluster. So, that's a bit of good news, because it means it's wrong to say that the next major earthquake is imminent, because it may not be. It could happen tomorrow - that's possible - but on [the] other hand it would be seismologically quite possible for it not to happen for another 100 years."
The last sizeable seismic shift to hit the region was 85 years ago, when a 6.25 magnitude tremor killed 500 people and damaged much of Jerusalem's Old City after it struck in the northern Dead Sea area on July 11, 1927. The interior of Government House, the official residence of the High Commissioner, Lord Plumer, in Jerusalem was seriously damaged. And, such was the quake's intensity that a tremor was felt as far away as Cairo. The "Safed earthquake" of 1837 was even more pronounced, with some estimates putting the magnitude as high as 6.8. With its epicentre in the Jordan Rift Valley, the New Year's Day quake destroyed Safed and severely damaged many of the villages in the surrounding area, claiming more than 4,000 lives.
But, as Marco's theory stands, such sub-seven quakes have little bearing on substantially reducing the seismic strain, which he asserts will "sooner rather than later" wreak havoc.
"The 1,000-year-long quiescence at the Jordan Valley is longer than previous quiescence periods … but many people think that the occurrence of small earthquakes reduces the stress and defers the 'big one'. However, it takes over 30 magnitude-five earthquakes to account for one magnitude-six or 30 magnitude-six earthquakes for one magnitude seven and so on. There aren't enough small earthquakes in the region to replace the large ones."
Alasdair Soussi is a freelance journalist, covering the Middle East and Scottish politics.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
The UN General Assembly President in quotes:
YEMEN: “The developments we have seen are promising. We really hope that the parties are going to respect the agreed ceasefire. I think that the sense of really having the political will to have a peace process is vital. There is a little bit of hope and the role that the UN has played is very important.”
PALESTINE: “There is no easy fix. We need to find the political will and comply with the resolutions that we have agreed upon.”
OMAN: “It is a very important country in our system. They have a very important role to play in terms of the balance and peace process of that particular part of the world, in that their position is neutral. That is why it is very important to have a dialogue with the Omani authorities.”
REFORM OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL: “This is complicated and it requires time. It is dependent on the effort that members want to put into the process. It is a process that has been going on for 25 years. That process is slow but the issue is huge. I really hope we will see some progress during my tenure.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENomad%20Homes%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHelen%20Chen%2C%20Damien%20Drap%2C%20and%20Dan%20Piehler%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20and%20Europe%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20PropTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2444m%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Acrew%20Capital%2C%2001%20Advisors%2C%20HighSage%20Ventures%2C%20Abstract%20Ventures%2C%20Partech%2C%20Precursor%20Ventures%2C%20Potluck%20Ventures%2C%20Knollwood%20and%20several%20undisclosed%20hedge%20funds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Ukraine v Portugal, Monday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Five expert hiking tips
- Always check the weather forecast before setting off
- Make sure you have plenty of water
- Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
- Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
- Take your litter home with you
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Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20several%20factors%20for%20landlords%20to%20consider%20when%20preparing%20to%20establish%20a%20holiday%20home%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3ERevenue%20potential%20of%20the%20unit%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20location%2C%20view%20and%20size%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%3A%20furnished%20or%20unfurnished.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Is%20the%20design%20up%20to%20standard%2C%20while%20being%20catchy%20at%20the%20same%20time%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20model%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20will%20it%20be%20managed%20by%20a%20professional%20operator%20or%20directly%20by%20the%20owner%2C%20how%20often%20does%20the%20owner%20wants%20to%20use%20it%20for%20personal%20reasons%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuality%20of%20the%20operator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20guest%20reviews%2C%20customer%20experience%20management%2C%20application%20of%20technology%2C%20average%20utilisation%2C%20scope%20of%20services%20rendered%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Adam%20Nowak%2C%20managing%20director%20of%20Ultimate%20Stay%20Vacation%20Homes%20Rental%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
WHEN TO GO:
September to November or March to May; this is when visitors are most likely to see what they’ve come for.
WHERE TO STAY:
Meghauli Serai, A Taj Safari - Chitwan National Park resort (tajhotels.com) is a one-hour drive from Bharatpur Airport with stays costing from Dh1,396 per night, including taxes and breakfast. Return airport transfers cost from Dh661.
HOW TO GET THERE:
Etihad Airways regularly flies from Abu Dhabi to Kathmandu from around Dh1,500 per person return, including taxes. Buddha Air (buddhaair.com) and Yeti Airlines (yetiairlines.com) fly from Kathmandu to Bharatpur several times a day from about Dh660 return and the flight takes just 20 minutes. Driving is possible but the roads are hilly which means it will take you five or six hours to travel 148 kilometres.