Paul Hockenos
The trickle of upbeat news these days from the euro zone might tempt one to guarded optimism that Europe’s economy is out of the woods and the single currency is back on track. After all, the euro zone economies inched out of recession earlier this year, and the problem children Portugal and Ireland posted encouraging numbers for the first time in ages. The euro itself is stronger than ever against its arch rival, the dollar. And under the steady hand of the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi, the bloc members are piecing together a joint banking union, one of several new fundaments to support the euro.
But those who dare to hope are certain to have their expectations dashed, argues the widely published economics journalist and euro expert David Marsh in his new book, Europe’s Deadlock. “A grand new beginning” is highly unlikely, concludes Marsh. “The nightmare of a total euro collapse will be avoided, yet deadlock and discord will linger on.”
Marsh is not a euro-sceptic per se, in league with the likes of narrow-minded nationalists who heap disdain on the very idea of a single European currency – or, for that matter, of a common Europe. On the contrary, he believes that a common money could make sense in a tightly bound, economically integrated Europe in which the credo “all for one, and one for all” prevailed rather than “me-first” thinking. But that’s not the case today, he argues, and Germany, above all, has set a tone that damns the euro to a drawn-out purgatory of perennial bickering, crises and ever greater discrepancies between the EU’s wealthier and poorer nations. Why so grim a take when, it seems, things are just starting to look up?
To begin with, argues Marsh, the hard-nosed austerity measures that Germany has imposed on the southern Europeans will lay them low for years, if not decades to come. Marsh can see no way that countries such as Greece and Spain, with their weak domestic demand and soaring unemployment, will ever crawl out from under the mountains of debt heaped upon them. They’re trapped in a vicious circle of falling tax revenues and uncompetitive industry that will keep them down and out rather than helping them back on their feet.
In the old days, weaker economies, often but not always in southern Europe, would have devalued their currencies to make exports attractive on the world market. Today, however, this path is blocked. Monetary policy is no longer in their own hands but rather in those of the ECB, which is run according to the deflationary logic of Germany’s once mighty Bundesbank.
The euro’s seminal flaws, Marsh argues, were embedded in the monetary union at its founding for all to see – and indeed many did see them and called out. But political priorities trumped economic common sense. The French saw monetary union as perhaps their last chance to tie down a Germany that was rapidly outgrowing the Franco-German partnership that had underpinned postwar Western Europe. By curbing the power of the Bundesbank once and for all and banishing the Deutsche mark, the French hoped they could keep pace with their powerhouse neighbour. Knowledgeable and highly respected economists from across Europe warned that a common currency couldn’t work unless it was ensconced in a real political union – a United States of Europe – and bound together by tightly integrated economies. This, responded the euro’s champions, would come later; at the time, such notions of a united Europe didn’t have the slightest chance of approval anywhere in Europe. Indeed, they still don’t.
But talk of laying further foundations after the euro’s launch fell by the wayside when the euro took off with such verve in the early 2000s. The low-interest credit that every euro member could access fuelled high times in countries such as Greece that could now borrow on the same terms as Germany. The poorer European countries saw the chance to finally catch up with their wealthier counterparts in northern Europe; they were encouraged to try, not least enabling them to spend liberally on exports from northern Europe.
As Germany’s economy recovered later in the decade, thanks in part to euro-zone conditions, in part to a new competitiveness enhanced by domestic restructuring, its trade surpluses – and those of its northern neighbours – burgeoned while the zone’s peripheral countries, among them Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy, suffered ever widening deficits. When the credit markets finally woke up to the economic reality in the south, the cost of money and debt financing soared and the ostensible wunderkinder found themselves staring bankruptcy in the eye.
But rather than the full-scale reform called for, the euro members addressed the union’s shortcomings by taking the path of least resistance every time, agreeing much too late to one temporary stopgap measure after another. It appeared that no one was in charge. Rather than a central bank with real powers, the crises’ management was left, according to Marsh, to a “cacophonous collection of European states attempting to combine as much control as necessary with as many elements of national sovereignty and self-determination as possible”.
The array of half-hearted reforms, argues Marsh, simply don’t add up to the kind of wholesale revamping necessary to make a currency union work. The ECB, for example, still lacks the powers necessary to function as a real central bank, like the Bundesbank did or the Federal Reserve in the US does today. When Draghi took over the reins in 2011, he declared with bombast that: “The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.” These words echoed around the world, instilling confidence again in the euro. But, as Marsh argues, the ECB remains a weak hybrid of vastly different conceptions. A new lever in the arsenal of the ECB was the means to intervene to buy the bonds of hard-hit, debt-strapped countries. Yet, according to Marsh, the effect of this proclamation was probably more psychological than real. The ECB cannot intervene at will to stabilise a country as other national central banks can to bolster regions. The ECB cannot engage in direct support on domestic bond markets to lower interest rates and ease credit commotions. The ECB, claims Marsh, is thus “the prime symbol of the unfinished state of monetary union – a single monetary body facing not just one political counterweight, but 17 different nations with more or less sovereign powers”.
And then there are the new powers of the EC to proctor the budgets of euro-zone members. But these, too, argues Marsh, may yet turn out to be fig leaves; certainly, they are no alternatives for a genuine common fiscal policy. Indeed, the commission possesses no recourse to remedial measures should an offending nation state, say with higher-than-specified spending, buck its authority. Likewise, the permanent rescue fund, called the European Stability Mechanism, has only €500 billion (Dh2.47 trillion) at its disposal. This is unlikely to be anywhere near enough should bigger economies such as Italy and Spain go down the tubes.
The banking union, which is currently under construction, will likely also prove a half measure.
The purpose is to merge Europe’s regulations on banking and finance to create a secure, efficient European banking system.
This makes all the sense in the world, says Marsh, as it would “reduce the threat of financial flare-ups, restart credit flows to hard-up countries, and enable better services for consumers and businesses”. But again, the will is lacking. Today’s nation states are reluctant to give away their rights to supervise their own banks.
Not surprisingly, adds Marsh, Germany is the most reluctant of all, insisting in this case as well on having its cake and eating it, too. Indeed, Germany has not stepped up to be a real leader rather than a co-antagonist in the crisis. With Merkel at the helm, there won’t be a real fiscal union based on genuine power-sharing anytime in the near future. The likes of Eurobonds, the pooling of debt and a taxed euro bloc budget are all ideas that Germany rejects out of hand.
Marsh predicts a drawn-out decline for Europe, which will see up-and-coming continents such as Asia surpass it. Since a “return to national currencies would be a journey of horror”, argues Marsh, “muddling through is the preferred option”.
The titbits of good news of late are only blips on the radar screen, Marsh would argue, not the turning point that Europe’s overwhelmed politicians are trying to sell their citizens.
Paul Hockenos is the author of Joschka Fischer and the Making of the Berlin Republic: An Alternative History of Postwar Germany.
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
RESULT
Al Hilal 4 Persepolis 0
Khribin (31', 54', 89'), Al Shahrani 40'
Red card: Otayf (Al Hilal, 49')
Match info
Manchester City 3 (Jesus 22', 50', Sterling 69')
Everton 1 (Calvert-Lewin 65')
The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 540hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 2,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Kerb weight: 1580kg
Price: From Dh750k
On sale: via special order
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Hales' batting career
Tests 11; Runs 573; 100s 0; 50s 5; Avg 27.38; Best 94
ODIs 58; Runs 1,957; 100s 5; 50s 11; Avg 36.24; Best 171
T20s 52; Runs 1,456; 100s 1; 50s 7; Avg 31.65; Best 116 not out
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Ten10 Cricket League
Venue and schedule Sharjah Cricket Stadium, December 14 to 17
Teams
Maratha Arabians Leading player: Virender Sehwag; Top picks: Mohammed Amir, Imad Wasim; UAE players: Shaiman Anwar, Zahoor Khan
Bengal Lions Leading player: Sarfraz Ahmed; Top picks: Sunil Narine, Mustafizur Rahman; UAE players: Mohammed Naveed, Rameez Shahzad
Kerala Kings Leading player: Eoin Morgan; Top picks: Kieron Pollard, Sohail Tanvir; UAE players: Rohan Mustafa, Imran Haider
Pakhtoons Leading player: Shahid Afridi; Top picks: Fakhar Zaman, Tamim Iqbal; UAE players: Amjad Javed, Saqlain Haider
Punjabi Legends Leading player: Shoaib Malik; Top picks: Hasan Ali, Chris Jordan; UAE players: Ghulam Shabber, Shareef Asadullah
Team Sri Lanka Cricket Will be made up of Colombo players who won island’s domestic limited-overs competition
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Adele: The Stories Behind The Songs
Caroline Sullivan
Carlton Books
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,200 metres
Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Younis Kalbani (trainer)
5.30pm: UAE Arabian Derby (PA) | Prestige | Dh150,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Octave, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round 3 (PA) | Group 3 Dh300,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Harrab, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Ali
6.30pm: Emirates Championship (PA) | Group 1 | Dh1million | 2,200m
Winner: BF Mughader, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (TB) | Group 3 | Dh380,000 | 2,200m
Winner: GM Hopkins, Patrick Cosgrave, Jaber Ramadhan
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) | Conditions | Dh70,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF La’Asae, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
Health Valley
Founded in 2002 and set up as a foundation in 2006, Health Valley has been an innovation in healthcare for more than 10 years in Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
It serves as a place where companies, businesses, universities, healthcare providers and government agencies can collaborate, offering a platform where they can connect and work together on healthcare innovation.
Its partners work on technological innovation, new forms of diagnostics and other methods to make a difference in healthcare.
Its agency consists of eight people, four innovation managers and office managers, two communication advisers and one director. It gives innovation support to businesses and other parties in its network like a broker, connecting people with the right organisation to help them further
Teams
India (playing XI): Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Hanuma Vihari, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ishant Sharma, Mohammed Shami
South Africa (squad): Faf du Plessis (c), Temba Bavuma, Theunis de Bruyn, Quinton de Kock, Dean Elgar, Zubayr Hamza, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Senuran Muthusamy, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Vernon Philander, Dane Piedt, Kagiso Rabada, Rudi Second
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBhuvan%20Bam%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fbhuvan.bam22%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%2016.1%20million%3Cbr%3EBhuvan%20Bam%20is%20a%2029-year-old%20comedian%20and%20actor%20from%20Delhi%2C%20who%20started%20out%20with%20YouTube%20channel%2C%20%E2%80%9CBB%20Ki%20Vines%E2%80%9D%20in%202015%2C%20which%20propelled%20the%20social%20media%20star%20into%20the%20limelight%20and%20made%20him%20sought-after%20among%20brands.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKusha%20Kapila%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkushakapila%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%203.1%20million%3Cbr%3EKusha%20Kapila%20is%20a%20fashion%20editor%20and%20actress%2C%20who%20has%20collaborated%20with%20brands%20including%20Google.%20She%20focuses%20on%20sharing%20light-hearted%20content%20and%20insights%20into%20her%20life%20as%20a%20rising%20celebrity.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDiipa%20Khosla%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fdiipakhosla%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EDiipa%20Khosla%20started%20out%20as%20a%20social%20media%20manager%20before%20branching%20out%20to%20become%20one%20of%20India's%20biggest%20fashion%20influencers%2C%20with%20collaborations%20including%20MAC%20Cosmetics.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKomal%20Pandey%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkomalpandeyofficial%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EKomal%20Pandey%20is%20a%20fashion%20influencer%20who%20has%20partnered%20with%20more%20than%20100%20brands%2C%20including%20Olay%20and%20smartphone%20brand%20Vivo%20India.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENikhil%20Sharma%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fnikkkhil%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.4%20million%3Cbr%3ENikhil%20Sharma%20from%20Mumbai%20began%20his%20online%20career%20through%20vlogs%20about%20his%20motorcycle%20trips.%20He%20has%20become%20a%20lifestyle%20influencer%20and%20has%20created%20his%20own%20clothing%20line.%3Cbr%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Hireinfluence%2C%20various%3C%2Fem%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WE%20NO%20LONGER%20PREFER%20MOUNTAINS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Inas%20Halabi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENijmeh%20Hamdan%2C%20Kamal%20Kayouf%2C%20Sheikh%20Najib%20Alou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More on animal trafficking
Tour de France Stage 16:
165km run from Le Puy-en-Velay to Romans-sur-Isère
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20ASI%20(formerly%20DigestAI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Quddus%20Pativada%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Artificial%20intelligence%2C%20education%20technology%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%243%20million-plus%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GSV%20Ventures%2C%20Character%2C%20Mark%20Cuban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.6-litre turbo
Transmission: six-speed automatic
Power: 165hp
Torque: 240Nm
Price: From Dh89,000 (Enjoy), Dh99,900 (Innovation)
On sale: Now
Brief scores:
Toss: Kerala Knights, opted to fielf
Pakhtoons 109-5 (10 ov)
Fletcher 32; Lamichhane 3-17
Kerala Knights 110-2 (7.5 ov)
Morgan 46 not out, Stirling 40
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law