Al Sadr's role will shape Iraq's political future

If Muqtada al Sadr can keep his followers from returning to bloodshed, it is very possible that his political star will continue to rise.

For millions of Shiite Iraqis, Muqtada al Sadr is a hero and the heir to a legitimate resistance. For many of their compatriots, he was master of a sectarian militia and a tool of Iranian influence. In 2006, the Americans called him the single greatest threat to Iraq's unity.

Which Mr al Sadr landed in Najaf on Wednesday after three years in Iran? Opinions will vary, and it is unlikely that Mr al Sadr himself will be forced to show his hand any time soon.

From questionable successor to his father's theological mantle, to commander of the Mahdi Army, Mr al Sadr remains a power-broker in Iraq's politics. Despite exile in Qom, his political bloc won about 40 seats in the last elections. His support of Nouri al Maliki appeared to cement the incumbent's hold on another term as prime minister.

In the long months of horse-trading after the election - indeed, since the Mahdi Army was ostensibly disbanded in 2008 - Mr al Sadr's leadership has taken on a decidedly more political tone. Transformation, however, might be too strong a word. It is far too early to describe the Mahdi Army as a spent military force, and the dour cleric rarely inspires confidence with his sporadic public statements.

The skeleton in his closet is not his anti-American stance, but actions of his supporters that contributed to the outbreak of sectarian violence in 2004. Now, the 2010 vote has provided Mr al Sadr a role in the new Iraq, and at least seven seats in the fragmented cabinet. At present, those do not include the key defence or interior portfolios. "The minister [for each of the two ministries] will only be independent, non-partisan, nonsectarian and with no ties to militias and serving solely Iraq," Mr al Maliki recently told the Wall Street Journal. Few would argue that Mr al Sadr meets those criteria.

But his allies have claimed the ministries of housing and construction, water resources, and labour and social affairs, among others. Undoubtedly the bloc will be a conservative Shiite voice in government, and Mr al Sadr will continue to be a divisive figure.

That is preferable to any other alternatives. This government's litmus test will not be whether it resolves sectarian differences, but whether it contains them. And if Mr al Sadr can keep his followers from returning to bloodshed, it is very possible that his political star will continue to rise.