Afghan riots fit in a pattern of blunders

When US forces create problems for themselves by burning copies of the Quran, it is hard to understand how they can expect to win Afghan hearts and minds.

The Taliban wasted no time in exploiting the latest example of American error, the burning of copies of the Quran at the "detention facility" at US-run Bagram airbase, north of Kabul. And even before their incitement, riots had killed at least nine.

"You should bring the invading forces' military bases under your brave attack, their military convoys [as well]," the insurgent movement told Afghans through an email sent by their propaganda bureau. "Kill them, capture them, beat them and teach them a lesson."

And yet the Taliban modulated its own outrage, confirming to reporters that so-called confidence-building contacts with the US in Qatar will not be interrupted because of the incident. This combination of rhetoric and back-room pragmatism reveals rising Taliban political confidence as the 2014 withdrawal of foreign troops approaches.

It remains to be seen if this week's protests, by thousands of people at several places across four eastern provinces, will continue to spread and grow more violent.

When the Quran-burning incident became public knowledge, senior US officials rapidly showed themselves to be sincerely contrite; this appears to have been a case of insensitivity rather than a deliberate insult. And yet, after a decade in Afghanistan, Americans' casual dismissal of the veneration for the Quran is insulting in itself.

The Taliban's ability to exploit this incident is another demonstration of how US and allied forces have completely failed to win Afghan hearts and minds. Public opinion in Afghanistan is often divided and can be hard to measure, but angry, stone-throwing mobs are certainly one indicator.

Of course, public opinion may not matter as much as firepower. President Hamid Karzai (who denounced the Quran burning but urged protesters to keep the peace) is already known, with derision, as "the mayor of Kabul" because the government he leads has so little authority anywhere else.

Once western troops are gone, the Taliban will still be part of the Afghanistan; politics and the uncertain Afghan army will determine the extent of their influence. Many different measures are still urgently needed to strengthen more reasonable forces. A good place to start would be to find some cultural sensitivity.