No new strongman for Ivory Coast

It is not just when Laurent Gbagbo falls, but how the victor – Alassane Ouattara – treats his defeated enemy that will determine Ivory Coast's road forward.

Laurent Gbagbo has clung on to power far longer than many would have believed possible after losing elections in November. In the past few days, his loyalists have fought a last-ditch defence in the commercial capital of Abidjan in what has been a wholly unnecessary civil conflict. Mr Gbagbo will go, as he should have done months ago before inflicting such damage on his country.

It is not just when Mr Gbagbo falls, but how the victor treats his defeated enemy that will determine Ivory Coast's road forward. His rival Alassane Ouattara has enjoyed considerable international support since he was robbed of the presidency, relying on UN military protection after the election. In the past few days, French commando and helicopter strikes have been targeting Mr Gbagbo's forces.

After the international intervention in Libya, Ivory Coast had been called the forgotten crisis, another example of the world turning its back on Africa. But in fact, Mr Gbagbo has been under unrelenting pressure, particularly from Ivory Coast's neighbours in West Africa.

The support for Mr Ouattara has ostensibly been in defence of the democratic principle. He did win the election. But this ugly war has raised a host of new concerns; Mr Outtara's own forces are accused of a massacre in the west of the country.

As in the 2002 civil war, battle lines have been drawn along ethnic and regional divisions. The 2010 election was supposed to definitively put that conflict to rest and instead opened new wounds. As president, Mr Ouattara will govern a polarised country, even if he forgoes settling scores from the fighting of the last few months.

Mr Ouattara's ability to bind his nations wounds will affect Ivory Coast, West Africa's stability and the countries that have intervened. "His actions and words in the coming days are critical to the future of Cote d'Ivoire," said the former South African archbishop Desmond Tutu. "The people need reconciliation, not retaliation."

For all of Mr Gbagbo's obstinacy - and the blood that is on his hands as a result - he did win nearly 46 per cent of the vote in November. But he broke the democratic institutions that were meant to resolve this kind of crisis. As he leaves office, those institutions must be repaired so that his supporters have a stake in the peace.

Even as the battle of Abidjan nears an end, Mr Ouattara's challenges are just beginning: to restore stability, restart the economy and reach out to his former enemies. And, when his term expires, to leave office without a fight.