Libya's election results signal brighter future

The voters' choices and Libya's economic prospects, taken together, are encouraging. But the country's leadership still has a lot to do to include all Libyans.

The final results in Libya's first democratic election for decades are in. There is a surprise in the mix, and much cause for optimism.

First, the surprise. While Islamists have made political gains in every other post-Arab Spring election, their gains were limited in Libya. The centrist National Forces Alliance (NFA) took 41 seats in the new parliament, with the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Justice and Construction party trailing with 17.

That may speak more to Libya's particular circumstances than to any retreat of the Islamist trend in North Africa. The head of the NFA, Mahmoud Jibril, pushed a pro-business agenda - with unemployment running at 20 per cent in the run-up to the revolution, it is likely that restarting the economy is greater priority for Libyans than societal issues.

Beyond elections, there is great cause to be optimistic about Libya's future. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that Libya's economy is likely to rebound much more quickly than other post-Arab Spring countries. The IMF suggested 116 per cent growth for this year, followed by an average of 13 per cent year on year.

The biggest driver of that is oil, which Libya is currently pumping at practically the same level as before the revolution. And there is much more in the ground, perhaps 50 billion barrels. With a small population of barely seven million, Libyans are on course to be as wealthy as their Arabian Gulf cousins.

Like the countries of the Gulf, the Libyan economy also needs to be diversified away from oil, but the black stuff provides considerable cushioning, as well as offering easy access to money to build new (and rebuild old) infrastructure - not to mention institutions - neglected for too long under the regime of Muammar Qaddafi. Libyans abroad are already returning and foreign companies will be looking to invest in the country as soon as the situation stabilises.

Stability and inclusion remain the biggest obstacles to prosperity. The rule of Qaddafi brought stability, but little development. Solving disagreements between different parts of the country, and incorporating tribal fighters into the national political framework, will prove the most immediate challenges. As The National reported yesterday, the men of Zintan, in Libya's western mountains, in particular are running out of patience. The country's new leaders will need to address these and other grievances, and swiftly, to keep the positive momentum moving in the right direction.