Do not fool yourself: Syria's civil war has started and it could spiral into failed-state status
"The civil war in Syria has not only started, it is already getting worse," wrote Abdelbari Atwan, editor of the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi, in his front-page column this weekend.
A group affiliated with Bashar Al Assad's Alawite regime attacked the Sunni-dominated Karm Al Zaytoun neighbourhood in Homs last week, killing a family of 14, including five children, the youngest of whom was 8 months old. Sadly, a revenge attack by Sunni groups on an Alawite neighbourhood is to be expected, and the vicious circle will not stop.
Syria's various denominational groups lived together for decades under the repression and human-rights abuses that characterised the rule of Bashar Al Assad's father, Hafez. That "Syrian social contract" is coming apart now, the editor argued.
While the situation in Syria remains highly volatile, this much is certain: the regime's once-daunting aura has crumbled before the people's eyes.
Mr Al Assad cannot even ensure control over the outskirts of the capital Damascus anymore, let alone the fuming provinces of Homs, Hama and Idlib, the editor said.
"Syria is slipping down the Iraqi slope, where the sense of an all-inclusive national unity is eroding, giving way to sectarian, denominational and ethnic interests. Just listen to the strongman of Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, who proclaims he is Shiite first and Iraqi second, prioritising his sect over his national identity."
Before you know it, Syrians will be doing the same, the editor went on. "Let's be honest, the sectarian rift in Syria is deepening at a phenomenal speed, and both the regime and the opposition … share responsibility for this disastrous situation."
This doesn't mean both parties are equally accountable for the Syrian mess. Obviously, most of the blame goes to the Assad regime, which believes that the most efficient way to quell any insubordination is army intervention, the editor added.
Remember the 1982 uprising in Hama which was crushed by Mr Al Assad Sr, leaving thousands dead.
"I'm afraid we will lose Syria just like we've lost Iraq and are losing Libya as we speak. And soon enough, you will look around and see that most Arab nations have turned into 'failed states'," the editor said.
"Trading accusations about who's responsible and glossing over this catastrophic prospect is a way of sticking one's head in the sand and conniving in the criminal plot to tear us apart as an umma (pan-Arab nation)."
The Syrian regime is committing crimes against its people, that is a fact, the editor said. But Syrian issues must be solved from within, not through foreign intervention that, recent history shows us, solves nothing in the long term.
Kuwaitis go to polls in a special context
Kuwaiti voters are going to the polls this Thursday to elect representatives in the 50-member Umma Council (parliament) for the fourth time in five years, but this time the context is a bit different, wrote columnist Saad Al Ajami in the UAE newspaper Al Ittihad.
"The elections this year come on the heels of an unprecedented popular mobilisation in Kuwait."
It all started before the Arab Spring, with members of the opposition calling for the prime minister to step down and, later, for parliament to be dissolved.
The former prime minister, Sheikh Nasser Al Mohammed Al Ahmed Al Sabah, was indeed grilled before a parliamentary committee. Then February 28 happened, marking the largest demonstration in the country's history, with about 100,000 people out on the street - a 10th of the Kuwait population. That event pushed the cabinet to resign and the country's ruler to dissolve parliament.
"The elections this time were called under pressure from the Kuwaiti people … who were offended by reports of million-dinar (Dh13.2mn) transfers made to the bank accounts of some MPs."
The elections also come amid fierce competition in constituencies where both Sunni and Shiite candidates are running. And the cabinet has for the first time approved a measure that was constitutionalised in 1962: to allow local and international monitors.
Row in Lebanon over Lara Fabian concert
A campaign against Lara Fabian, the Belgian-Italian singer who was controversially scheduled to sing in Lebanon on Valentine's Day, was relaunched after Lebanese authorities decided to grant her an entry visa last week, Sawsan Al Abtah reported in the London-based newspaper Asharq Al Awsat.
Fabian, who holds Canadian citizenship, is reported to have sung for Israel's 60th Independence Day celebrations, which is the main reason campaigners are working to prevent her concert in Lebanon.
But the organisers of the show have confirmed that they are proceeding with ticket sales and preparations.
Campaigners described Fabian's decision to sing in Lebanon as "a provocation" they won't accept in their "Campaign to Boycott Israel Supporters." They also called for a meeting with the Lebanese president, Michel Suleiman, to denounce "a singer who wants to promote Zionism in Lebanon."
The Lebanese people consider Israel an enemy state and the two countries do not hold diplomatic relations, the writer noted.
On her Facebook page, Fabian wrote that she was "against threats," and that she believes in "tolerance" and "truth." She is widely known for hit songs like Je t'aime.
* Digest compiled by Achraf El Bahi
aelbahi@thenational.ae
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
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What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”