In the world of arms deals, $200 million (Dh7.34bn) doesn't buy you much. A few tanks, some mortars and perhaps some ammunition. Yet the deal that Iraq has signed with Iran has political repercussions far beyond the monetary value.
Under the terms of a UN embargo, which proscribes Iran’s ability to sell weapons to any third party, the deal is probably illegal. But the fact that Iraq doesn’t care highlights three aspects of the complicated relationship between the US and the region: the lack of influence of the United States with Baghdad (it is, after all, only two years since its troops left Iraq); the warming ties between Iran and its neighbour; and the repercussions of the sudden warming of relations between the US and Iran.
Iran’s expanding influence in the region has long been a source of contention in the Arab world and especially among the Gulf states. Despite – indeed, because of – America’s toppling of Saddam Hussein and its privileging of the Iraqi Shia community, Iran has been able to wield considerable influence in Baghdad. Few big decisions get made inside the Green Zone these days without Tehran’s approval. But selling arms to Iraq takes this relationship to another level. True, America is still Baghdad’s top arms supplier. But America is far away. Iran is next door.
The warming of ties between the US and Iran, after decades of enmity, as evidenced in the deal over Iran’s nuclear programme, has created a culture of normalisation of ties between Iran and the international community. Many feel this normalisation is premature, and indeed the US is concerned by it, but it is clear that the genie has firmly exited the bottle.
Iran is a big prize: tens of millions of people hungry for consumer goods, a vast infrastructure in need of renovation, energy reserves to pay for them, and a scientific and military complex that is eager to export its technology. No wonder, then, that France led a delegation last month to Tehran with representatives of more than 100 of its companies in tow. The US expressed unhappiness, but there is little it can do: as the international embargo against Iran crumbles, countries like France and Iraq are scrambling to take advantage.
The arms deal is a small prize for Iran. The bigger prize is normalisation with the outside world and an expanded role in the region. And piece by piece, aided rather than blocked by the US, it is moving towards that ambition.
