At the very beginning of the Syrian revolution, Egyptian attitudes towards the struggle were fairly positive – if cautious. That reticence had a lot to do with the perceived viability of the uprisings, given what was already known about the brutality of the Al Assad regime.
Three years on, the foreign policy of the Egyptian state appears to have undergone a number of mutations – as has its domestic policy when it comes to Syrians.Now, as the new Egyptian government begins to take shape, what has changed for those refugees?
On the domestic level, it is clear that when Mohammed Morsi was in power, he was very supportive of the Syrian uprising – as borne out by his infamous speech at a political rally in June 2013, when he called upon the Egyptian people to welcome Syrian refugees and to treat them like "brothers".
His decrees meant that Syrian refugees – thought to number 300,000 in 2013 – had a very privileged position during his period in power, when compared to other refugee populations in the country.
In the aftermath of the military removal of Mr Morsi last July, there was an immediate reaction against Syrian refugees – both on a government level and in society.
In terms of the latter, different parts of the Egyptian media began to pursue an ultranationalist line when Mr Morsi left office, which negatively impacted Syrians, who were painted, wrongly, as insurrectionary supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.
In terms of the response of government, automatic entry into Egypt by Syrians was stopped, and many started trying to leave the country illegally. That meant that the refugee population actually ended up decreasing by 50,000.
Syrian community activists report that when Syrian refugees are arrested in Egypt and if they are found to be unregistered or have incorrect paperwork, they are not being automatically deported – as they once were. Rather, they are more likely to be released and the individual will be encouraged to get his or her papers in order. Generally speaking, he or she stands a good chance of being granted official refugee status.
That is vital to the life of Syrian refugees who, if properly registered, continue to enjoy benefits from the Egyptian state, including education.
In that regard, Syrian refugees are still better off than many other refugee populations.
Crucially though, there is also no organised Syrian refugee representative body in Egypt.
On a local level, different individuals are trying to pick up the baton. On a national level, there are very few who have any real access to those in positions of authority – except, perhaps, one or two high-profile Syrian refugee activists.
But the lack of organised leadership nationally linking to Syrians on the ground locally, means that their position remains weak and vulnerable in terms of helping to shape government policy.
The summer is looming, August is likely – based on the experience of previous years – to be the peak month for people trying to leave Egypt illegally. There have been previous tragedies related to refugees leaving illegally: what happens when thousands of people try to do so this year?
The Egyptian public remains split on how to engage with the revolutionary uprising in Syria – and there are many concerns relating to Egyptians caught up in the conflict. There are Egyptians engaged in radical groups in Syria, such as the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant (one of the "amirs" of ISIL in Aleppo, for example, was an Egyptian). These sorts of issues will energise the Egyptian state in terms of counter-terrorism issues.
However, there is no evidence of the Syrian refugee population using their time in Egypt for anything beyond what any refugee would do – attempting to build a life, even a transitory one, for themselves and their families. They have left a country that has been torn apart by the butchery of the Al Assad regime, and the barbarism of its most radical opponents.
Decades ago, Egypt and Syria united, if only for a short while, in the spirit of Arab unity.
Egyptians and Syrians don’t need that sort of gesture – but in the interests of basic humanity, Syrian refugees should be able to feel that from the horror that Syria has turned into, they have found a home elsewhere, even if temporarily.
Egypt, and other countries, need to be that home, and not be another country that Syrians wish to take flight from.
Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Brookings Institution in Washington DC
On Twitter: @hahellyer
