Band-aids won't stop bleeding in this debt crisis


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Politicians as well as bankers led the world into this maze of sovereign debt troubles, but only politicians can lead the world out of it. Yet it is far from clear that the leaders who matter have the courage, wisdom and political capital that the crisis demands.

While Greeks prepare for Sunday's elections - and a possible exit from the euro zone - the spotlight has shifted to Spain, which has just been promised loans of €100 billion (Dh459 billion) to prop up its troubled banks.

This crisis is not just European: the International Monetary Fund warned on Saturday that the UAE and the whole GCC also face risk if the debt crisis overflows the euro zone and spills around the world. Already, southern Europeans are withdrawing cash from troubled banks. Interbank lending is drying up. Nothing is quite as contagious as fear.

The day after the Greek vote, when G20 leaders assemble in Mexico, they will certainly have plenty to talk about. And they may raise their voices. Governments worked together in the markets crisis of 2008-9, but there is now much less accord.

And what is the solution? Some in Europe are talking about a "redemption fund" of pan-European bonds; debtor states would use their gold reserves as collateral. But the formation of a single European finance ministry, which the euro logically requires, is still politically impossible.

There are two approaches that deserve attention, both of them global, not merely European. The obvious one is economic growth. Inflation would reduce the real value of the debt, but it is destructive. Much better to spur growth by opening labour markets, encouraging competition, ending import restrictions and otherwise facilitating free trade.

Entrenched interests will fight such measures fiercely; political leaders will have to explain to voters that these growth policies can serve all.

The other approach is inspired by the Club of Paris, a still-functioning but little-noticed group of richer countries that has helped developing countries restructure their debts to avoid default since 1956. The Club proved its value during the 1980s Latin American debt crisis.

Now that so many governments are in debt trouble, a new self-help version of the Club might prove useful. This would take the form of a grand bargain of most or all major economies, with "haircuts" all around and some kind of enforceable guarantees to limit future sovereign borrowing. This would amount to one enormous "reset" of global debts.

Hard to imagine? Harder to orchestrate? Unjust to some? Unpopular with voters and banks alike? No doubt. But drastic problems call for drastic measures.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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