Arab countries face elections that will determine the region’s course


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What the Arabic press is saying about elections due this year across the region. Translated by Carla Mirza

The year 2014 is a crucial year for the Arab peoples, featuring a series of legislative and presidential elections across the region. Elections are scheduled for Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Mauritania – and possibly Libya as well.

In the UAE daily Al Bayan, Hussein Al Odat remarks that the refusal of the authorities in these countries to conduct an in-depth dialogue between the candidates before the elections, the lack of freedom of expression and freedom of information, and the lack of protection for voters during the electoral process to ensure transparency of the process are all elements that dissociate these elections from the notion of genuine democracy.

“Before even voting, Arab voters know the name of the upcoming president, and not once were they surprised by the outcome (except for the partial exception of the Lebanese presidential elections),” observed Al Odat.

“It is the season of Arab electoral carnivals”, wrote Abdel Rahman Al Rashed, former chief editor of the pan-Arab daily Asharq Al Awsat. Elections have long been used by dictators as pretexts to remain in power, he remarked.

Arab republics like Syria, Mauritania and Southern Sudan are the products of a combination of religious and military institutions that have always had the upper hand in the region, he observed. He stressed that “the hope of seeing countries in the region turn into developed civil societies seems rather utopian”.

In Libya, groups of religious extremists who are yet to experience political evolution are attempting to seize the reigns of power by terrorising members of parliament, ministers and diplomats.

They have somewhat succeeded in sabotaging the situation by trying to rule the way Muammar Qaddafi did – through the reign of militia, observed Al Rashed.

The editorial of the UAE daily, Al Khaleej, described the situation in the country this way: “Libya is oppressed, its people are oppressed as they believed the nonsense they were told and found themselves trapped, like other peoples, turning into tools for various regional and international conflicts.”

Left to the reign of anarchy, “Libya has turned into a source of danger to peace and security, both regionally and internationally. The world has already seen what happened to Iraq, Syria and others and is watching yet another open wound where the future is unknown”.

The newspaper called on Arabs to understand what is happening in their own countries and in the region around them, as devastation reigns, with bad results. It called for a unified position that might save whatever remains.

As for the Iraqis, they are soon heading to the polls to cast their votes for a new parliament and government.

“As the elections approach, the gravitation of conflicting forces has become a threat to the country’s unity”, writes Georges Semaan, columnist in the pan- Arab daily Al Hayat.

“Al Maliki succeeded in investing all his financial, military and security capabilities,” Semaan added.

“He is still subject to multiple accusations from most political forces.

“The most important question remains whether Maliki will accept a defeat before a ‘political majority’ other than that his own? What will his opponents do if his ‘majority’ wins and maintains its current policies?”

Doubtlessly, he concluded, the revival of politics in Baghdad as a substitute for military force will contribute to the revitalisation of politics in the Levant. There it could act as a substitute for bloody confrontations, which is like a fire waiting for the wind to blow.

cmirza@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The biog

Date of birth: 27 May, 1995

Place of birth: Dubai, UAE

Status: Single

School: Al Ittihad private school in Al Mamzar

University: University of Sharjah

Degree: Renewable and Sustainable Energy

Hobby: I enjoy travelling a lot, not just for fun, but I like to cross things off my bucket list and the map and do something there like a 'green project'.