After Kiev, will Russia continue meddling in Syria?

Will Moscow now step back from its policy in Middle East, asks Oraib Al Rantawi in the Jordanian newspaper Addustour. Other topics: security and stability in the GCC, and the Brotherhood in Egypt.

The unfolding events in Ukraine are reminiscent of the Arab Spring – including some of its bloody chapters, wrote Oraib Al Rantawi in the Jordanian newspaper Addustour.

The developments in Kiev have been fast and dramatic. The agreement that has been signed between the government and the opposition, which was deemed to be a hard blow to Moscow, is now history, amid reports that President Viktor Yanukovich had fled Kiev to Russia or to the northeastern Ukranian city of Kharkiv.

There have also been reports that President Yanukovich agreed to step down, that the imprisoned opposition figure Yulia Tymoshenko has been freed from detention and that key government figures keep falling.

The army has pledged to remain neutral in the crisis and the police have paid tribute to the martyrs who died in clashes with security forces.

These events evoke pictures of the Arab Spring, the writer said.

But the question is, will the turmoil in Kiev have any impact on Russia’s Middle East policies, especially regarding the Syrian conflict?

Ukraine holds paramount importance in Russia’s geopolitical and security calculations, and losing it would be a heavy blow to the “Tsar’s dreams”.

As a neighbouring country where Russia has invested billions of dollars, the status of Ukraine is hanging in the balance.

The image Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought hard to cultivate about himself and his country has been severely harmed.

Ukraine has not been a priority in US foreign policy but it has been for the Kremlin. Yet Washington’s interests prevailed and Russia’s did not. Likewise, Syria is not top of the American agenda but it is important to Moscow. So, will Russia face in Syria what it has faced in Ukraine? Or will a loss in Ukraine only make Moscow more determined to succeed in Syria and the Middle East?

These questions are difficult to answer, especially because events have been unfolding at a remarkably fast pace in Kiev.

The rapid collapse of the system there is similar only to that of Zine El Abidine of Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.

All Syrian eyes must be on the developments in Kiev. The events there are absolutely bad news for the Assad regime and its allies, as they prepare for decisive battles in Yabroud and Deraa.

And yet, Syria is not Ukraine. The Syrian regime is in a fight to the death. The government in Kiev seemed fragile but the Assad regime in Syria is still unbroken. The opposition in Kiev is coloured in orange while Al Qaeda’s black flags fly over much of the Syrian opposition, causing panic among western nations.

The coming weeks will tell whether there will be a repeat of Ukraine’s experience in Syria.

GCC states lead way in securing stability

States can only benefit from finding the path to stability and development, with the view to providing welfare and happiness to the people. “Identifying external enemies such as states and coalitions at both regional and international levels reveals itself less beneficial than identifying internal enemies that spread like an epidemic,” wrote Abdullah Al Otaibi in The National’s sister Arabic newspaper Al Ittihad.

Declared enemies are easy to deal with, because their methods are known and diplomatic channels simplify the procedures. As for dealing with enemies on its own soil, a country’s leadership requires deep insight and careful consideration, which leads to the enactment of clear laws.

Such laws regulate and define crime and punishment, giving way to accountability for crimes committed against a state. GCC countries have taken several steps to protect their security and stability as nations and as a regional alliance.

GCC countries, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia in the lead, have realised the absurdity of Western support for the Muslim Brotherhood in the region and for political Islam in general. Western countries mistakenly though this would halt religious terrorism from movements like Al Qaeda. This backfired and resulted in the emergence of new extremist movements and organisations under the banner of fundamentalism in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the paper said.

Brotherhood’s move may end Egypt crisis

If the last move leaked by the Muslim Brotherhood has the approval of the real leaders of the organisation, we can say that there is light at the end of the tunnel in Egypt, Emad Eddine Hussein wrote in an article in the Cairo-based news­paper Al Shorouk.

On Saturday, the paper reported that a source has said the Brotherhood was willing to accept the road map in return for retribution against its martyrs’ killers, international election observation and the release of the Brotherhood’s leaders including former president Mohammed Morsi.

This, if true, signals that the Brotherhood has started to deal with the reality of the new Egypt, the writer said.

For the first time since July last year when Mr Morsi was removed, the Brotherhood have given up on three big conditions: the return of Mr Morsi to power, and reinstatement both of the 2012 constitution and the dissolved parliament.

The new conditions are not unrealistic and can be negotiated. Leaders and members who have not been involved in criminal acts can be released as per the law; punishment of those who killed protesters and compensation for martyrs’ families are not a moot point; and international monitoring of elections is also an attainable demand, the paper said.

* Digest compiled by Translation Desk