The UK needs a “grand strategy” to counter Russia’s destabilising influence across the world, senior Tory MP Sir Bernard Jenkin told the Commons on Thursday.
Ukraine needs to gain the upper hand against Russia's invasion, which can be achieved by resupplying the country with arms more quickly, MPs were told.
Mr Jenkin, MP for Harwich and North Essex, said Russia’s global plans stood on a “knife edge”, as he opened a debate on the Kremlin’s strategy and the threat posed by President Vladimir Putin.
Looking ahead to a year which he suggested would be “crucial” for Ukraine, he said: “It would be an epic tragedy if we now allowed Russia the time to mass their forces so their brutal war of attrition could become overwhelming.
“It is crucial for the West to increase the tempo of its supply of weapons systems to Ukraine, so that Ukraine rather than Russia can be the first to develop the mobile formations necessary to break the current battlefield deadlock.”
Mr Jenkin said the UK needed its own grand strategy to face down Russia, telling MPs: “Without the right apparatus in government and the right culture in government, we will always be behind the curve of events as we seem to be now, mis-appreciating what is really happening.
“We need to find the right answers to the new evolving threats the UK and the whole of the free world must confront before it is too late.”
Drones and weapons supplied to Ukraine - in pictures
Tory defence select committee chairman Tobias Ellwood, meanwhile, claimed that the UK was “ill-prepared” for future threats from Moscow.
“We are heading into another Cold War, more dangerous than the last," he said. "And it saddens me to say this, but we are ill-prepared militarily for the threats that are coming over the horizon, particularly when it comes to the British Army.
“Three critical components of quantity and quality that contribute to our land warfare capability, and indeed more widely to the full spectrum of armed warfare, are the tank, the armoured fighting vehicle and the recce vehicle.
“Our tank, the Challenger 2, was introduced 25 years ago. Back then we had over 900, today we’ve cut our main battle tank numbers to just 148. These will now finally gain an upgrade, but that won’t be complete until 2030.
“Our armoured fighting vehicle, the Warrior, was introduced 30 years ago, a competent but now dated workhorse … all 700 are being axed, replaced by the Boxer, a wheeled not tracked vehicle, and we’re choosing the variant that has no turret, so no serious firepower."
Mr Ellwood went on to describe the relative suitability of recce vehicle, the Scimitar.
“This was introduced over 50 years ago," he said. "It should have been replaced by the Ajax three years ago, but a litany of procurement problems means it’s still unclear when this may or may not happen."
Russia and Ukraine conflict latest - in pictures
The former defence minister also suggested “a major Ukrainian armaments factory” should be established in eastern Poland.
“Gifting kit is the right call now, absolutely, but is not sustainable in the long term, so let Ukraine develop its own equipment,” he said.
Conservative former minister Mark Francois insisted the integrated review of defence and security published in spring 2021 had “clearly been overtaken by events”, stressing “the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a total game-changer in security terms”.
“Suffice to say that we now need to rethink our whole approach towards a shooting war with Russia, potentially, even some time this year and not in 10 years’ time," he added.
“That means having armed forces which are highly trained, brilliantly equipped and backed up with a clear political intent to use them if required.
“That means not just increasing our defence spending, though we must, but also our preparedness to fight tonight, with minimum further strategic or even operational warning.”
Everything you need to know about the Challenger 2 tank being sent to Ukraine - video
Responding to Mr Jenkin, parliamentary undersecretary Leo Docherty said: “He pointed out that we need to increase the tempo of our support to Ukraine, of course we would support that.
“He suggested that we were being too timid and too slow in terms of our support. Frankly, I would refute that, because I think our actions over the last year have shown, especially with our leadership on provision of lethal aid, that we have led the way and others have followed."
On the question of strategy, he said: “I think Putin’s failure to deliver his own policy in Ukraine has showed the failure of his strategy, and our success in supporting our Ukrainian friends has show the success of our collective strategy.
“We will continue to look at all options with regards to frozen Russian assets and their possible use in supporting Ukrainian reconstruction."
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Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”