Boris Johnson called off his comeback after failing to persuade vulnerable Conservative MPs that he could save them at the next general election.
At the heart of Mr Johnson’s case to colleagues was the belief that only he could rescue the Tories from their dire standing in the polls.
But data compiled by The National shows MPs with fragile majorities did not embrace Mr Johnson’s argument.
Lacking enough support to govern, Mr Johnson announced late on Sunday that he would not seek to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister.
“I believe I have much to offer but I am afraid that this is simply not the right time,” he said.
Of 34 Conservative MPs with a majority below 5 per cent, only four came out in support of a Johnson comeback.
Those MPs would be almost certain to lose their seats if the Labour Party wins the next election, expected in 2024.
Many of them turned their backs on Mr Johnson despite owing their seats to his landslide general election victory in 2019.
James Daly, who won his Bury North seat by just 105 votes at the last election, was among at least 15 vulnerable MPs who favoured Rishi Sunak.
“This is not a game. This is about people’s lives, and that’s why I’m backing Rishi Sunak,” said Mr Daly, the most vulnerable Conservative MP in the country.
“We cannot risk bringing chaos and confusion at a time of economic crisis.”
Boris Johnson as UK prime minister — in pictures
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Boris Johnson became UK prime minister in July 2019, left, and resigned three years later in July 2022, right. Here 'The National' looks back at his colourful time as leader of the country. Getty Images / Reuters -
Boris Johnson reads a statement outside 10 Downing Street, formally resigning as Conservative Party leader. PA -
Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie Johnson attend the National Service of Thanksgiving to celebrate the Platinum Jubilee of Queen Elizabeth at St Paul's Cathedral in June 2022. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson addresses the media after surviving a confidence vote in his leadership, in June 2022. PA -
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, announcing that Mr Johnson had survived a confidence vote in his leadership at the Houses of Parliament in June. PA -
Mr Johnson chats with residents in a Diamond Jubilee-themed room as he makes a constituency visit to Sweetcroft care home in Uxbridge, in May 2022. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson reads the findings of the Sue Gray report into gatherings on government premises while Covid-19 restrictions were in place, in his office in No 10, Downing Street in May 2022. Photo: Downing Street -
An image of a gathering in the Cabinet Room in No 10, Downing Street in June 2020 on the prime minister's birthday was released alongside the Sue Gray report. Photo: Cabinet Office -
Boris Johnson with a Mark 3 shoulder launch missile system at Thales weapons manufacturer during a visit to Northern Ireland for talks, in May 2022 in Belfast. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson having a turban placed on his head at Gujarat Bio Technology University, during his two-day trip to India in April. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson after apologising to MPs for the 'partygate' fine he had received, in the House of Commons in April. AFP -
Mr Johnson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy walking in central Kyiv, in April. AFP -
Mr Johnson arrives for a media interview at the Emirates Palace hotel in Abu Dhabi, in March 2022. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson speaks with officers as he makes a constituency visit to Uxbridge police station in December 2021. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson observes an early morning Merseyside Police raid on a home in Liverpool as part of 'Operation Toxic' to infiltrate county lines drug dealings in December 2021. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson during a visit to Westport Care Home in Stepney Green, ahead of unveiling his long-awaited plan to fix the social care system, in September 2021. Getty Images -
Prince Charles looks on as Boris Johnson attempts to open his umbrella at the National Memorial Arboretum in Stafford, in July 2021. Getty Images -
President of the European Council Charles Michel, US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Mr Johnson and Italian PM Mario Draghi pose for the leaders' official photo during the G7 summit in Cornwall, in June 2021. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson poses with his wife Carrie in the garden of No 10, Downing Street following their wedding at Westminster Cathedral, in May 2021. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson visits Hartlepool after the Conservative Party candidate Jill Mortimer won the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson receives his first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine at St. Thomas' Hospital in London, in March 2021. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson smiles during a televised press conference at No 10, Downing Street in February 2021, as he announces a phased exit from the country's lockdown measures. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson gives a thumbs-up gesture after signing the Brexit trade deal with the EU in No 10, Downing Street, in December 2020. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meet for a dinner to try to reach a breakthrough on a post-Brexit trade deal, in December 2020 in Brussels. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson with a vial of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 candidate vaccine, known as AZD1222, at Wockhardt's pharmaceutical manufacturing facility, in November 2020, in Wrexham, Wales. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson drills during his visit to Exeter College in September 2020. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson holds crabs caught on the Carvela at Stromness Harbour in July 2020, during a visit to Scotland. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson holds a painting of a ladybird during a visit to The Discovery School in West Malling, in July 2020. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds applaud for key workers outside No 10, Downing Street, in May 2020. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson appears on monitors for a meeting in London. The prime minister chaired the morning update meeting remotely as he was self-isolating after testing positive for Covid-19. Reuters -
Boris Johnson makes a televised address to the nation from inside No 10, Downing Street, with the latest instructions to stay at home to help contain the Covid-19 pandemic, in March 2020. AFP -
Mr Johnson attends the launch of the UK-hosted COP26 Summit at the Science Museum in London, in February 2020. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson is greeted by staff at No 10, Downing Street, after meeting Queen Elizabeth II and accepting her invitation to form a new government in December 2019. PA -
Mr Johnson and his partner Carrie enter Downing Street as the Conservatives celebrate a sweeping election victory in December 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson drives a digger with the words 'Get Brexit Done' inside the digger bucket through a fake wall emblazoned with the word 'GRIDLOCK', during a general election campaign event in December 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson eats pie on the campaign bus in Derby, on the final day of campaigning before the general election in December 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson takes a turn in goal during the warm up before a girls' football match between Hazel Grove United JFC and Poynton Juniors in December 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson poses with workers as he is given a tour of Wilton Engineering Services as part of an election campaign trail stop in November 2019, in Middlesbrough. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson poses for a photo wearing boxing gloves during a stop on his general election campaign trail in Manchester, in November 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson eats a rock sweet which reads 'Back Boris' during a general election campaign trail stop in Blackpool, in November 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson leads a bull around a pen as he visits Darnford Farm near Aberdeen, Scotland, in September 2019. Getty Images -
Former US president Donald Trump and Mr Johnson arrive for a bilateral meeting during the G7 summit in August 2019, in Biarritz, France. Getty Images -
Queen Elizabeth welcomes Mr Johnson as the newly elected leader of the Conservative party and invites him to become prime minister and form a new government, at Buckingham Palace in July 2019. Getty Images
Although Mr Johnson had support from barely 10 per cent of the most vulnerable MPs, he claimed that almost 30 per cent of all Tory MPs were willing to back him.
But he said it would be impossible to govern with Tory MPs so divided.
Richard Holden, defending a majority of 1,144 votes in North-West Durham, spurned Mr Johnson after working on his leadership campaign in 2019.
“It isn’t his moment and he’s made the right call,” he said, after Mr Johnson called off his comeback.
Anthony Browne, who defeated the Liberal Democrats by 2,904 votes in South Cambridgeshire, said Britain needed “someone with economic credibility, who is popular with voters, and who hasn’t already been forced to resign as PM”.
At least four MPs in the 34 most marginal seats supported rival candidate Penny Mordaunt, but she was trailing Mr Sunak in total nominations.
The most vulnerable Conservative MP to back Mr Johnson was Ian Levy, whose victory by 712 votes in Blyth Valley was symbolic of the Tories’ success in former Labour heartlands in 2019.
Mr Johnson was the most popular choice in emails and messages he received from his constituents, Mr Levy said.
Other MPs with small majorities kept their preferences to themselves, or endorsed Mr Sunak only after Mr Johnson was out of the picture.
Mr Johnson said he was tempted by a comeback “because I led our party into a massive election victory less than three years ago — and I believe I am therefore uniquely placed to avert a general election now”.
Allies said Mr Johnson’s charisma and campaigning skills meant he was the man Labour would most fear.
“Boris is a winner,” was the refrain of one Johnson loyalist, Scott Benton.
Polls gave a mixed verdict on whether this was true. The Sunak camp seized on one survey showing 45 per cent of the public would prefer Mr Sunak as prime minister, compared to 27 per cent for Mr Johnson.
But another poll showed Labour leading the Tories by only 10 points if Mr Johnson were back in Downing Street, compared to 17 points if it faced Mr Sunak.
Labour has built up vast poll leads not seen since the 1990s, after the bungled mini-budget that unleashed economic chaos and led to the downfall of Ms Truss.
The next election is not expected until 2024 and could theoretically be as late as January 2025, but Labour is calling for an early vote.
Johnson supporters said a comeback would have neutralised Labour’s argument because he would have resumed his mandate from 2019.
Supporters of Mr Sunak said voters would want stability and honesty after the chaos of the past few years.
He promised in his only public remarks since Ms Truss resigned that there would be “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of the government I lead”.
Mr Johnson’s credibility was again in question after he claimed to have 102 supporters when the tally of public backers was considerably lower.
“If he had 102 he’d have run and won,” said Labour MP Andrew Gwynne.
