Moderate Tories eye power after Liz Truss downfall

UK leadership shifts amid tribal warfare engulfing ruling Conservative Party

House of Commons leader Penny Mordaunt in Downing Street. Reuters

The first scent that something was amiss came as Liz Truss's Downing Street team revealed on Thursday that the prime minister was huddled with Conservative kingmaker Sir Graham Brady.

An hour later, she emerged to announce that she would be gone within a week.

After a market crisis and the loss of two of her most senior Cabinet ministers, the returning influence of moderates like Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Home Secretary Grant Shapps had already shifted the balance of power.

Now she was paying the price.

With Truss's departure and Wednesday's resignation of Suella Braverman as home secretary, the right of the party is a diminished force in the tribal balance of the Conservatives.

The key figures in the frame to take over are the centrist ex-chancellor and runner-up in the last contest, Rishi Sunak, plus Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt.

The new leader will not only face the judgment of the markets but must hold the Conservatives together.

Historically the party’s success has been in its ability to host a range of tribes, whose views can sway from the hard right to the moderate centrist one nation group.

These factions usually manage to remain under the same roof with — aside from the odd baiting — each tolerating the other.

With the six weeks of chaos under Ms Truss, the cork has popped from the bottle. The short, sharp leadership contest that will follow is likely to see someone acceptable to the nervous markets take the reins in No 10 Downing St.

Britain's former home secretary Suella Braverman who resigned on Wednesday, leading to a day of chaos further undermining Prime Minister Liz Truss. AFP

In truth, the party has been steadily fracturing since the 2016 Brexit referendum — in which the UK voted to leave the EU — and this continues to eat the party from within.

When Boris Johnson unseated Theresa May to become prime minister in 2019, the Brexiteer tribe was dominant.

It might have “got Brexit done” — sort of — but for some that did not go far enough, and the hardline Brexiteers began spearing those who were less zealous.

Losing their support was a factor in Mr Johnson’s downfall. Ms Truss, who had been a Remainer, knew she had no chance of becoming leader without changing her views to those of the Brexit tribe.

Brexit MPs may feel that their dreams of consigning the EU to the dustbin are now threatened. But that also means they could very promptly withdraw support for Ms Truss, leaving her with few allies.

Danger ahead

Freed from government duties Ms Braverman will now lead the challenge from the right. Given her confrontation with Ms Truss and disillusionment over the ailing Brexit project, she may well embark on a path to self-destruction.

It could also be that the Tories descent into self-harm may lead MPs to decide a general election is the only way out.

Many acknowledge that that would truly be an act of self-immolation, as the opposition Labour Party would almost certainly win by a landslide, such is their lead in the polls.

But such is the disillusion among Tory MPs that they may no longer care about the consequences. That disenchantment was further enhanced after the fractious scenes at the vote on fracking on Wednesday, in which Tory MPs were allegedly physically jostled to vote for the government.

Westminster awaits what happens next.

It is true that with the moderates commanding the government stability would take priority and the markets hopefully steady. It is equally true that another bout of infighting could follow very swiftly.

British politics, once the epitome of dull stability, has demonstrated that it has the ability for an enduring tragicomedy.