GCSE results: number of top grades set to fall as pupils collect results

Expert predicts there will be 230,000 less top grades in the UK compared with 2021

Pupils compare their results. Getty

Students will receive their GCSE results on Thursday after sitting exams for the first time since the pandemic.

It is expected that grades will drop below last year but remain above those from 2019, similar to the A-level results published last week.

One education expert has predicted that, in line with the move back towards pre-pandemic grading, there could be about 230,000 less top grades in the UK compared with 2021, but 230,000 more than 2019.

Prof Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, said he expected top grades to fall, with more pupils failing and a slight narrowing of the girls’ lead over boys.

The Association of School and College Leaders said this week’s results were likely to be “uneven” across different schools and areas, and reflect the “turbulent circumstances” of the pandemic.

ASCL general secretary Geoff Barton appealed to schools watchdog Ofsted to bear these factors in mind and not to “rush to judgments”.

Mr Barton said that, despite schools’ best efforts to support pupils with remote education and to plug learning gaps, there would “inevitably” have been an effect on learning.

He said the government had a “lacklustre and chaotic support for education recovery”.

“It is important to understand this year’s results at school and pupil level in this context and we would urge Ofsted and regional schools commissioners in particular not to rush to judgments.”

Pupils receive their A-level results in Britain - in pictures

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  Millie Clark hugs a friend after receiving her A-level results at Norwich School in England. PA

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  Yasmin Adan, left, and Asmaa Ali receive their A-level results at Oasis Academy Hadley in Enfield, north London. PA

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  Holly Robinson hugs her friend after receiving her results at Ffynone House School in Swansea, Wales. Getty Images

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  Pupils with their A-level results at Norwich School. Getty Images

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  A pupil looking at her A-level results at Norwich School. PA

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  Sarim Rafique receives a kiss from his father as his mother and sister look on, after he received his results at Ffynone House School in Swansea, Wales. Getty Images

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  Yasmin Adan poses for a photo after receiving her results at Oasis Academy Hadley in north London. PA

Ofsted said it did not base its judgments on exam results and test scores but uses data “in context, as a starting point for our discussions with school leaders about what they are teaching children and how they are running their school”.

"We have set out a range of measures to help level up education across England, including targeted support both for individual pupils who fall behind and whole areas of the country where standards are weakest," a spokeswoman for the Department for Education said.

“This is alongside £5 billion ($5.9bn) to help young people recover from the impact of the pandemic, including £1.5bn for tutoring programmes.

“Pupil Premium funding is also increasing to more than £2.6bn in 2022-23, whilst an additional £1bn is allowing us to extend the Recovery Premium for the next two academic years – funding which schools can use to offer targeted academic and emotional support to disadvantaged pupils.”

UAE pupils get their A-level results - in pictures

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  Students celebrate after receiving their A-level results at Gems Metropole School in Motor City, Dubai. All photos: Pawan Singh / The National

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  Ibrahim Ismaeili and Mikail Sheikh receive their results.

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  Students check their results.

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  Ibrahim Ismaeili, centre, celebrating with other students after receiving his exam results.

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  Julia and Kateryna after receiving their A-level results.

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  Kateryna with her father Denys and mother Olena after receiving her A-level results at the Gems Metropole School in Motor City, Dubai.

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  Kateryna celebrating with her father, Denys, after receiving her A-level results.

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  From left to right, Mohammed Soufi, Ibrahim Ismaeili and Mikail Sheikh after receiving their results.

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  Daniella Aschettino, Head of Secondary at Gems Metropole School presenting A-level results to student Kateryna.

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  Muneeb Alvi, a pupil at Pristine Private School Dubai who received three A*, with his parents Hina Nihal and Nihal Alvi Courtesy: Muneeb Alvi

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  Muneeb Alvi, a pupil at Pristine Private School Dubai who received three A*, with his parents Hina Nihal and Nihal Alvi Courtesy: Muneeb Alvi

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  Ashna Chaturvedi, 18-year-old Indian at Brighton College Abu Dhabi will be heading to Oxford University to study law after securing four A* in Biology, Chemistry, Mathematics, and Economics.

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  Ahmed Mohamed, a Sudanese 18-year-old pupil at British School Al Khubairat will be pursuing a degree in medicine at Imperial College London.

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  Isabelle Darling an A-level pupil with her brother.

Last year, the proportion of GCSE entries awarded top grades surged to an all-time high after exams were cancelled for the second year in a row and pupils were given results determined by their teachers.

While traditional A*-G grades are used in Northern Ireland and Wales, in England these have been replaced with a 9-1 system, where nine is the highest.

A 4 is broadly equal to a C grade, and a 7 is broadly equal to an A.