Liz Truss, the British Foreign Secretary, could be under threat of elimination from the Tory leadership race on Tuesday, with insiders suggesting tactical voting could be used to oust her.
Monday’s fourth-placed candidate Kemi Badenoch gained the most momentum in that poll, with an 18 per cent increase in her votes to 58 — just 13 behind Ms Truss on 71.
There is now speculation that for the fourth ballot some MPs will vote her in ahead of the Cabinet minister.
It is also understood that for this round only, some of the 31 supporters of Tom Tugendhat, who was knocked out on Monday, will “lend” their votes to Ms Badenoch in order to supplant Ms Truss.
They would then back Penny Mordaunt, with whom One Nation Tories ― followers of a form of Conservatism that favours preserving established institutions and traditional principles — are more politically aligned.
This would be in the fifth and final round on Wednesday, that will see the contest reduced to the final pair.
This is almost certain to feature the former chancellor, Rishi Sunak. He has already secured the backing of 115 Conservative MPs, just five short of the 120 required to clinch a place in the final run-off.
He would likely be joined by either Ms Truss or the early favourite, Ms Mordaunt. On Monday, Ms Mordaunt received 82 votes, one down on the previous round.
But before then there will be a few nervous moments for the remaining three women candidates.
One of the key players will be the International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan who was a key supporter to Mr Tugendhat. She is an ardent Brexiteer and influential within the Conservative parliamentary party, having served on the backbenches and as a parliamentary private secretary.
If she is able to move a large number of Mr Tugendhat’s votes to Ms Badenoch today, this would put Ms Truss in real danger of elimination.
There is a suggestion that because Ms Badenoch was a “true” Brexiteer rather than Ms Truss who originally voted remain, the former would be trusted more by the Brexit wing.
However, on Monday she appeared to back down on her arguments that it was not necessary to get Britain to net carbon zero by 2050, which would displease some supporters on the right.
But if, as likely, Ms Badenoch is eliminated on Tuesday, then there will be a major battle to pick up her block vote for Wednesday’s final round.
Mr Tugendhat’s block will likely take Ms Mordaunt to around 110 votes, just ten short of the 120 required to guarantee a place in the final pair.
But the former defence secretary suffered a blow after her supporter Tobias Ellwood had the whip removed — effectively expelled from the Conservative Party — for abstaining in the government's confidence vote on Monday.
He has been an outspoken critic of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government.
If Ms Badenoch is eliminated, Ms Truss, a fellow right-winger, would seek to pick up a large number of her votes to get past Ms Mordaunt.
But equally, Ms Badenoch’s caucus could divide, with a number going for Mr Sunak and a handful to Ms Mordaunt, leaving Ms Truss trailing in third and eliminated.
UK Conservatives on the leadership campaign trail - in pictures
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Candidates Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss at the Conservative Party leadership election hustings at Wembley Arena, London. This was the final hustings attended by Tory Party members who will vote for the new leader and next prime minister. EPA -
Liz Truss addresses Conservative Party members at Wembley Arena. AP -
Mr Sunak puts forward his case to be leader while speaking at Wembley Arena. Bloomberg -
Mr Sunak visits his family's old business, Bassett Pharmacy in Southampton, while on the campaign trail. Reuters -
Ms Truss speaks to staff at Condimentum Ltd at the Food Enterprise Park in Norwich. Getty Images -
A Rishi Sunak supporter at a hustings event in Norfolk. PA -
Mr Sunak greets people at a leadership hustings in Manchester. Bloomberg -
Ms Truss poses for a selfie with a supporter as she arrives for the event in Manchester. Getty -
Rishi Sunak looks through the sights of an anti-tank missile launcher, supplied to Ukraine, during a visit to the Thales Defence System plant in Belfast, Northern Ireland. AP -
Liz Truss at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event in Belfast. Getty -
Liz Truss meets supporters before a hustings in Perth, Scotland. Getty -
Rishi Sunak speaks during a campaign visit to Cluny Castle in Inverurie, Scotland. Getty -
Police hold back protesters outside Perth Concert Hall, Scotland, where Conservative leadership candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak were speaking. PA -
A mural showing the two leadership contestants appears on a wall in Belfast, Northern Ireland. AP -
Rishi Sunak during a visit to St John's Wood Synagogue, north London. PA -
Liz Truss at the Conservative Party leadership election hustings in Cheltenham. EPA -
Rishi Sunak during a hustings event in Cheltenham. Reuters -
Liz Truss speaks to scientists during a campaign visit to a life sciences laboratory at Alderley Park in Manchester. PA -
Rishi Sunak during a campaign hustings in Darlington, England. Bloomberg -
Liz Truss meets party members before she speaks at the Darlington campaign hustings. Getty -
Rishi Sunak arrives for the Darlington hustings. Getty -
Liz Truss plays pool during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak looks at a book with Teddy Openshaw, 4, as his father, Henry, looks on after a Conservative leadership campaign event in Ribble Valley, Lancashire, England. Getty -
Liz Truss plays table tennis with former Conservative party leader Iain Duncan Smith during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London. Reuters -
Liz Truss with supporters at a campaign event in Solihull, England. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak attends a campaign event held by his party in Bexhill, England. Reuters -
A protester is removed as Ms Truss speaks during the Conservative Party leadership hustings in Eastbourne. Bloomberg -
Mr Sunak speaks at an event in Edinburgh. PA -
Ms Truss leaves the hall in Exeter, south-west England, after her speech to a Conservative Party membership hustings. Getty -
Mr Sunak speaks at the University of Exeter in south-west England. AP -
A supporter of Ms Truss at a Conservative Party hustings in Exeter, south-west England. Getty -
Ms Truss at a hustings event at the Pavilion conference centre at Elland Road in Leeds. PA -
Mr Sunak in Salisbury watching a screening of the Uefa Women's Euro 2022 final between England and Germany at Wembley stadium. England won 2-1 in extra time. PA -
Ms Truss before the Uefa Women's Euro 2022 final at Wembley stadium in London. AFP -
Mr Sunak meets Tory members at Fontwell Park Racecourse. Reuters -
Ms Truss at an event in Dereham, Norfolk. AFP -
Mr Sunak in Ropley, near Winchester, Hampshire. PA -
Ms Truss speaks as Conservative Member of Parliament Tom Tugendhat looks on at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event at Biggin Hill Airport. Getty -
Ms Truss on the campaign trail in Woodford Green, on the outskirts of London. Reuters -
Mr Sunak at a Conservative Party hustings event in Leeds. AFP -
Ms Truss speaks at the hustings event in Leeds. AFP -
Sunak and Truss-themed souvenirs at a stand during the Leeds hustings event. Reuters -
Ms Truss, and her mother, Patricia, arrive for the hustings event. Getty -
Ms Truss poses with supporters in Morley, England. Getty -
Mr Sunak delivers a speech during a campaign event in Newmarket. AFP -
Ms Truss and Jake Berry, MP for Rossendale and Darwen, during a visit to a broadband interchange company in Leeds. PA -
Mr Sunak answers questions as he takes part in the hustings in Leeds. AFP -
Ms Truss speaks at an event at a private house with members of the Conservative Party in Woodford Green. PA -
Ms Truss and Mr Sunak pose for a picture before a BBC leadership debate at Victoria Hall in Hanley. Getty -
Ms Truss addresses Mr Sunak during the televised debate. Getty -
Mr Sunak, with daughters Krishna and Anushka, and wife Akshata Murthy, during a visit to Vaculug tyre specialists at Gonerby Hill Foot, Grantham. PA -
Ms Truss speaks to people while campaigning in Marden. Getty -
Ms Truss celebrates after being named, along with Mr Sunak, one of the final two candidates in the race to become the UK's next prime minister. PA -
Mr Sunak outside his campaign office in central London. EPA -
Ms Truss outside Downing Street in London. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak meets Conservative Party members and activists, in Teesport, Redcar. Reuters -
Conservative leadership candidates Mr Sunak, Ms Truss, Kemi Badenoch, presenter Julie Etchingham, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt during 'Britain's Next Prime Minister: The ITV Debate' in London. EPA -
Ms Badenoch arrives at Here East studios in Stratford, east London, before a live television debate. PA -
Mr Sunak arrives at a London event to launch his campaign to be the next Conservative Party leader and UK prime minister. Reuters -
Mr Tugendhat appears on the BBC One current affairs programme, 'Sunday Morning'. PA -
Ms Badenoch, Ms Mordaunt, Mr Sunak, Ms Truss and Mr Tugendhat before the live television debate. PA -
Ms Mordaunt arrives for the launch of her Conservative leadership campaign at the Cinnamon Club in Westminster. PA -
Ms Truss speaks at the launch event for her campaign to become the next leader of the Tory Party and Britain's prime minister, in London. EPA -
Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi, one of the candidates who has been knocked out of the race, giving a speech at the Churchill War Rooms. PA -
Former leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt appearing on the BBC One current affairs programme, 'Sunday Morning'. PA -
Sajid Javid attending the launch of his campaign to be Conservative Party leader and prime minister, at the Cinnamon Club in London. He has since been knocked out of the contest. PA -
Rehman Chishti is interviewed after announcing his bid to become the next prime minister. Mr Chishti is no longer in the race. Getty -
Mr Tugendhat speaking at the launch of his campaign. PA -
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries and Conservative MP Iain Duncan Smith arrive for the Truss campaign launch event. Getty -
Former leadership candidate Attorney General Suella Braverman at the Churchill War Rooms in central London. PA -
Supporters of Mr Sunak wait for his arrival ahead of the campaign launch. Bloomberg -
Mr Tugendhat makes a speech at the launch of his campaign. PA -
Mr Javid mops his brow while launching his campaign. Getty -
Ms Truss leaves for work after her announcement that she would be running for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Getty
Equally, Mr Sunak’s camp could “lend” a large chunk of votes to the candidate he would rather face in the final run-off. The 160,000 Conservative Party membership will vote on these final candidates, deciding who will become their next leader — and Britain's next prime minister.
In 2019, Jeremy Hunt just beat Michael Gove in the final round by two votes. Mr Hunt was seen as the weaker of the two candidates in the battle against Mr Johnson, leading to allegations that MPs in Mr Johnson’s camp voted for him for tactical reasons.
“There are weird things going on in Westminster and the next two days are going to be tense,” said a Conservative insider.
“This is a game of attrition and smoke and mirrors where the only certainty is the final ballot tally.”
