Britain could have a new prime minister by September 5 after a rapid round of voting by MPs in the next two weeks.
With a widespread desire to see Boris Johnson removed from office at the earliest opportunity, Conservative MPs are expected to whittle down the field to the last two candidates before Parliament's summer break on Thursday next week.
It is understood the remaining pair will provide a written undertaking to put themselves before the ballot of 200,000 Conservative Party members who will vote for Britain’s next leader.
This is to avoid any back-room deal between the candidates, as happened when Theresa May became prime minister in 2016 after Andrea Leadsom dropped out, without the pair being scrutinised by a series of nationwide hustings.
Late on Monday the precise timetable and election rules will be set out by the 1922 Committee that sets Conservative Party rules. The National understands there is now a provisional working timetable.
Monday, July 11
Shortly after 7pm the 1922 Committee will agree on the precise rules for the race and the number of supporters required to proceed to the first round of votes, potentially 20 MPs.
Tuesday, July 12
Currently 11 candidates have put themselves forward as the next Conservative Party leader. This could expand to 12 or 13 — in 2019 there were initially 10 — who must submit their nominations to the 1922 Committee by 6pm.
Any contender not backed by 20 MPs — including a proposer and seconder — will be out.
Wednesday, July 13
Boris Johnson will attend his first Prime Minister’s Questions in the knowledge that many sat behind him wielded the knives that led to his resignation on Thursday last week.
The first round of voting with take place in a large committee room in the Commons between 1.30pm and 3.30pm. MPs unable to attend in person — because they are banned from Parliament or are on official overseas trips — can ask a fellow MP to make a proxy vote.
The results will be announced on Wednesday evening.
Thursday, July 14
Contenders who do not have the support of 10 per cent of the parliamentary party’s 358 MPs will bow out. If a dozen candidates are standing this could well shrink the field at this stage by half.
Votes will be eagerly sought by the remaining candidates — with possible deals struck for places in the next government — before Thursday’s second round of voting.
The candidate placed last will then be removed from the contest.
There will also be a hustings, in which contenders are questioned by colleagues, possibly on Thursday morning.
Sunday, July 17
The first of the televised debates of the remaining candidates will be broadcast live at 7pm on ITV. Performances before a studio audience could have a significant effect on the outcome.
Monday, July 18
This is being labelled “Super Monday”, when the future potential prime ministers will be grilled by three different Tory MP groups – the 1922 Committee, the anti-woke Common Sense Group and a grouping of senior MPs. Meanwhile, Sky television is expected to host a debate in the evening.
Tuesday, July 19
A third and potentially fourth round of voting will take place, allowing for two ballots in a single day. This could whittle the candidates down a final three.
Wednesday, July 20
The last day of voting should reveal which two people will go forward to be elected by the Conservative Party membership. This will also be the day of Mr Johnson’s last PMQs.
Parliament will close on Thursday although that could be used as a reserve for any voting still required.
August
Conservative Central Office will organise a number of hustings around the UK in which various Conservative Associations will be able to directly question the remaining two candidates.
In 2019 these took place in Belfast, Cardiff, Darlington, Nottingham, Perth and York.
Members will be balloted by a postal vote with a deadline potentially set for Tuesday, August 30, the day after the bank holiday.
Monday, September 5
Conservative headquarters in London will announce the winner, who will become next Tory party leader and hence Britain’s new prime minister.
Two days later he or she will be in the Commons for their first PMQ battle with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.
Conservative leadership candidates – in pictures
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Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
COMPANY PROFILE
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Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
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The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
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First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
What is a black hole?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
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