Boris Johnson eyes Gulf visit to restore security and increase energy supplies

Concerns over US distancing from the region to be addressed with trip to UAE and Saudi Arabia

Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, is scheduled to visit the UAE and Saudi Arabia this week. AP

Gulf states can be expected to seek security guarantees from the West when the UK prime minister visits the Arabian Peninsula this week, analysts have told The National.

Boris Johnson will travel to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to listen to region concerns as well as press an output request on oil producing nations after a huge run up in global prices after Russia launched a war in Ukraine.

Energy prices across Europe have soared since the February 24 attack. Households in Britain were already facing high bills, which are now expected to peak at £3,000 ($3,920) a year.

While the countries of the Arabian Gulf boast the capacity to substantially increase production there are an array of considerations requiring delicate diplomacy.

America’s distancing from the region, which traces from President Barack Obama and on through Donald Trump, is a concern felt in London. Iran-backed attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have escalated in the face of the US position.

Veteran military experts from the Middle East pointed to the “very quiet response from the Americans” after the attacks on oil production plants in the kingdom in 2019 and the drone attacks on Abu Dhabi this year.

“There was a real feeling across the region, not just in those two countries, that expected the US to do something and they didn’t,” a senior British military source told The National. “They’re saying ‘We’ve got this relationship with you and you haven’t really lived up to our aspirations. Why is that?’”

Middle East expert Tobias Borck, of the Rusi think tank, also suggested there were “questions over the US as a security provider” and that there had been “hope that Russia could be a counterweight to Iran”.

The current Washington administration had been “distant” towards Saudi Arabia, causing “frustrations in Riyadh” that reported led US President Joe Biden failed to connect with regional leaders.

Saudi King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud shaking hands with Boris Johnson, who was then British foreign secretary, in Riyadh in 2016. EPA

“Ultimately, the big driver of tensions is security interests,” said Dr Sanam Vakil, Middle East deputy director at the Chatham House think tank.

“The Saudis are looking for greater assurances and protection and it will be important that those assurances are given to Riyadh to justify any sort of shift in position,” she said.

The military source said Britain could potentially play a “convening role as an honest broker” to help with the relationship, given its “extraordinary bond with the Americans”.

“People are doing bad things to the Saudis. They’ve got a cyber threat and Iran which has got weapons pointed at them and is interfering with them every day and the Americans haven’t done that much to really say ‘we've got your back’,” the officer added.

Mr Borck also believed that with the Iran nuclear deal still being addressed there was a need for “more regional dialogue to address the security issues” with Yemen prominent too.

“This visit is much more about getting global petrol prices down,” he said

It was also important for Mr Johnson to reset its relationship with the Gulf after Britain had become “consumed with itself over Brexit” since 2014. “Now it’s about what does global Britain mean in the Middle East?” Mr Borck said.

The senior military figure suggested it was now important that western powers recognised the UAE’s “role in the global stage” in that the country should be “respected for the role that they have played and can play”.

“In this time of a crisis, there is less willingness from policymakers in the kingdom to give way to Washington’s demand and it’s connected, obviously, to the killing of Jamal Khashoggi and the rebalancing around that,” said Ms Vakil.

There were also concerns at America’s withdrawal of the terrorist designation of the Houthis in Yemen.

“The Saudis are looking to operate in a balanced way,” she said. “This is a multipolar world so they don’t want to put all their eggs in one country’s basket. They’re also not yet willing to throw the Russia relationship under the bus.”

Analysts believe that following the prime minister’s trip the region will be judged on progress toward London's desire to oil output hikes, potentially of more than one million barrels a day.

But a lot will depend on progress made in the US relationship, and the Mr Johnson’s travel and engagement could be helpful.