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The West needs to prepare for a major cyber attack from Russia in retaliation for the severe sanctions it has imposed, a former US Under Secretary of Defence has said.
Michele Flournoy also warned that with Nato war planes patrolling Eastern Europe’s borders there is potential for an “accident or incident and that can lead to miscalculation and escalation” between nuclear powers.
There are also growing concerns that Russia might strike at lorry convoys carrying weapons from Nato into Ukraine, further intensifying the crisis, the Chatham House webinar heard.
Western strategists are worried that tensions could lead to a nuclear strike especially given Russia’s “doctrine of escalating,” Ms Flournoy said.
But it was thought much more likely that President Vladimir Putin would use his significant cyber warfare firepower to strike back at wide-ranging western sanctions which have seen banks, companies and individuals targeted.
“If Putin’s going to use his traditional playbook and as the sanctions bite we can expect him to launch major cyber attacks against the US and Nato countries,” she told the London-based think tank.
President Joe Biden’s administration was showing “discipline and the restraint” to ensure the conflict “doesn't trigger a broader European war with Nato and Russia directly in conflict”, but that could quickly change with a Russian attack.
The former politician, who is chairwoman of the Centre for a New American Security, said the war could spill into the alliance’s territory.
“There's the continued risk of escalation if Putin gets increasingly frustrated with western and Nato efforts to arm the Ukrainians, the Russians will try to hit convoys coming across the border and potentially miscalculate, hitting them inside Nato territory.”
With Nato’s air policing operations close to the border and with the Russian air force possibly moving into western Ukraine “you could have real potential for some kind of accident or incident” that could lead to a major escalation.
This could create a “Nato dimension to the conflict” and with it the risk of a nuclear war.
Putin had put “the nuclear threat on the table” and while it was “more bluster at this point than not … the nuclear shadow is always going to be there when we're talking about Russia given its doctrine of escalating.”
With sanctions beginning to bite across all Russia society there are suggestions from some analysts that an attempt might be made to remove Mr Putin from office.
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This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows destroyed and burning warehouse buildings in Stoyanka, Ukraine, in the western Kyiv region, during the Russian invasion. AP -
Children shelter in a metro station in Kharkiv. Moscow said on March 10, 2022, that it will open daily humanitarian corridors to allow civilians fleeing fighting in Ukraine to reach Russian territory, despite Kyiv insisting that no evacuation routes should lead to Russia. AFP -
Russian President Vladimir Putin during a videoconference meeting with government members at the Kremlin in Moscow. The meeting focuses on minimising the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian troops entered Ukraine on February 24, prompting the country's president to declare martial law and triggering a series of severe economic sanctions imposed by western countries. EPA -
Rescuers work among remains of buildings damaged by an air strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, as Russia's attack on the country continues. Reuters -
Members of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksandr and Olena, listen to a priest at their wedding in Ukraine. Reuters -
People fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine warm up by a fire near the train station in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian forces rolled their armoured vehicles up to the northeastern edge of Kyiv, edging closer in their attempts to encircle the Ukrainian capital. AFP -
A woman covers herself with a blanket near a damaged fire truck after shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP Photo -
A Ukrainian soldier hides from a helicopter air strike near Demydiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Ukrainian soldiers walk past a monument of the city founder Duke de Richelieu, covered with sand bags for protection, in Odessa, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, centre, and Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. EPA -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in talks with Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba during a tripartite meeting chaired by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, in Antalya, Turkey. AP -
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova speaks to the media as the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia and Turkey hold talks in Antalya, 15 days after Russia launched a military invasion on Ukraine. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman says goodbye to his girlfriend before departing in the direction of Kyiv at the central train station in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP -
Valerii Sushkevych, president of the Ukraine National Paralympic Committee, and the Ukraine delegation raise their fists and pose with a banner at the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. Reuters -
A member of the Ukrainian team cries during a moment of silence at the Zhangjiakou athletes village during the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. AFP -
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, right, and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela, second left, in Antalya, Turkey. AFP -
A man is supported after crossing the Irpin river while fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine. AP -
People are helped out of a damaged children's hospital following a Russian air strike in the southeastern city of Mariupol, Ukraine. AFP -
A man rides a bicycle in front of an apartment building that was damaged by shelling in Mariupol. AP -
A woman carries two babies after arriving at a triage point in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
A man hugs an elderly woman after crossing a damaged bridge as they flee from the frontline town of Irpin, near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. EPA -
Local residents cook at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA -
Ukrainian men chop wood at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA -
A member of the Territorial Defence Forces learns how to use a Javelin missile during a training session in Kyiv. EPA -
Members of the Territorial Defence Forces learn how to give first aid during the training session. EPA -
A woman rescued from the outskirts of Kyiv holds a plate of food after arriving at a triage point in the Ukrainian capital. AP -
A woman cries after arriving at the triage point in Kyiv. AP -
Civilian vehicles drive past a destroyed Russian tank as they leave Irpin. AP -
Ukrainian servicemen stand in a foxhole in Irpin. AP -
People gather on a platform to board a train leaving Odesa after the US said Russian troops are making preparations to attack the city. AFP -
A Ukrainian woman looks for food in a bin in Odesa's city centre. AFP -
Ukrainian servicemen look towards Russian positions outside the city of Brovary, east of Kyiv. AFP -
A man walks past a shelled house at the village of Velyka Dymerka, east of Kyiv. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman stands at a check point in the vilage of Velyka Dymerka east of Kyiv. AFP -
A Ukrainian woman plays with her child in a temporary refugee shelter in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters -
A woman waits outside a maternity and children's hospital damaged by shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP -
A pregnant woman leaves the hospital after she was wounded when it was bombed. AP -
A woman waits outside the damaged hospital in Mariupol. AP -
A man wounded by shelling in Mariupol. AP -
A car burns after the destruction of the children's hospital in Mariupol. Reuters -
A mortuary worker wheels a stretcher used to move dead bodies before they are buried on the outskirts of Mariupol. AP
But the former Pentagon official, who was in charge of defence policy under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2012, said there was “a very remote chance that Putin loses his power in this scenario, but it's not impossible”.
Historically it has been a combination of “popular discontent and elite discontent” that had brought down autocrats, she argued. “But it's not impossible, particularly if he continues to double down on a strategy that neither his oligarchs nor the people really support. And they will continue to experience increasing pain.”
She said conversations with Washington insiders had informed her that the US government was trying “to wrestle with how could they hasten the point of stalemate. How could they set the table for a more productive negotiation than what they've had so far.”
