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Russia’s military can only sustain its army in Ukraine for another two weeks before it is forced to pause its onslaught, a leading military analyst has said.
Moscow’s generals might also be holding back some of their advanced equipment, fearing it will be needed to protect against potential Nato involvement, said Dr Michael Kofman.
Russian military specialists also highlighted a large number of shortcomings in the fighting with a “phenomenal” number of vehicles abandoned.
After 12 days of hard fighting, in which they have suffered heavy losses with potentially more than 5,000 dead, it was getting to the point where Moscow’s offensive would need new troops and kit.
“They're probably going to need an operational pause within a couple of weeks as their military is going to get exhausted pretty soon,” said Dr Kofman of the US-based CNA, a think tank. “They've committed a large part of their force and at the current rate of attrition, they're likely going to be facing combat ineffectiveness in a couple of weeks. They will have to have a pause to reorganise and replenish.”
He added that even the battle-hardened veterans of Russia’s wars in eastern Ukraine and Syria were becoming disheartened. “If people feel they were lied to and they were thrown into a war without support, soldiers get disgruntled pretty fast.”
But he added that there was no way of telling how long the Ukrainian forces could similarly hold out.
The Russian Air Force, which has been notable by its absence, was potentially being held back for fear of losses with a view to the Nato threat, Dr Kofman told a webinar hosted by the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.
“They are concerned that the possibility of Nato intervention is escalating so they're not using them, so there must be a reason why they're doing that.”
He added that the military had fired more than 600 cruise missiles and other rockets, using up a “pretty sizeable” amount of their stockpile. “They're conserving them because they've likely grossly out-run what they expected to be the allocated number of expensive munitions,” he said.
The Russian plan was entirely focused on a lightning strike into Kyiv and other cities that would be lightly opposed, which had led infantry and airborne troops to push far ahead without the support of tanks and artillery. “They were operating as though they were still in their own country for the first 48 hours.”
The strong Ukrainian resistance ended President Vladimir Putin’s plan to decapitate the government and put his own puppet regime in place. “I do not believe they can any longer achieve their political objectives,” he said.
The site of many functioning vehicles being left on the side of roads was the result of Russian troops running away either from ambushes or breakdowns.
“You see them dump gear and run into the woods,” the expert in Russian armed forces said. “The ratio of destroyed vehicles to abandoned vehicles in this war is phenomenal.”
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Cars are left abandoned on a road as residents flee the town of Irpin, Ukraine after days of heavy shelling. Reuters -
A Ukrainian soldier helps a family fleeing from Irpin. Reuters -
A bus passes the Duke of Wellington statue, which has a traffic cone in the colours of the flag of Ukraine placed on top of it, in Glasgow, Scotland. AP -
Ukrainian children sleep at the reception point at the train station in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters -
Smoke rises as a Ukrainian soldier stands by the only escape route used by locals to flee from the town of Irpin. Reuters -
A man flees from Irpin. Reuters -
A screengrab from footage released by the Russian Defence Ministry shows a purported Russian tank unit advancement in the Kyiv region. AFP -
People walk on debris of residential buildings damaged by shelling in the Zhytomyr region. Reuters -
A damaged residential building after Russian multiple rocket launchers shelled the area in the southern city of Mykolaiv. AFP -
Ukrainian soldiers sit in their armoured vehicle after fighting against Russian troops and Russia-backed separatists near Zolote village, Luhansk region. AFP -
A woman offers accommodation for people fleeing Ukraine at the main railway station in Berlin, Germany. Getty Images -
A soldier holds a helmet as a wedding crown during the ceremony for members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces Lesia Ivashchenko and Valerii Fylymonov, at a checkpoint in Kyiv. AP -
Ukrainian soldiers carry a woman fleeing the town of Irpin. AP -
A factory and warehouse burn after being bombarded in Irpin. AP -
Ukrainian soldiers near Zolote. AFP -
A Ukrainian refugee boy, wearing a blanket on his shoulders, warms his hands with a gas heater shortly after crossing the Siret border into northern Romania. EPA -
People demonstrate against the Russian military operation in Ukraine in Buenos Aires, Argentina. EPA -
First responders work at the scene after a missile hit a building at Havryshivka Vinnytsia International Airport in Vinnytsia, Ukraine. Reuters -
A woman at a checkpoint on the road to Kyiv after her evacuation from a nearby town. AFP -
A placard in the Ukrainian colours is held up at an anti-war demonstration the Bebelplatz square in Berlin, Germany. Reuters -
A Ukrainian serviceman helps an elderly woman in Irpin, 20 kilometres north-west of the capital Kyiv. AP Photo -
Protesters cry during a demonstration in support of Ukraine at the Plaza Catalunya square in Barcelona. AFP -
A man walks past a machine gun at a checkpoint next to the last bridge on the road that connects the town of Stoyanka to the outskirts of Ukraine's capital Kyiv. AFP -
Ukrainian servicemen put a wounded man on a stretcher in Irpin. AP Photo -
People board a train to return to Ukraine after getting supplies in Zahony, Hungary. AP Photo -
Balloons in the colors of Ukraine during a demonstration against the Russian attack on Ukraine, in Mainz, Germany. AP -
A Ukrainian girl helps to weave a camouflage net for the Ukrainian army, in Odesa. EPA -
Molotov cocktails prepared by a group of volunteers in Odesa. Hundreds are made every day. EPA -
Ukrainian servicemen assist people fleeing the town of Irpin after crossing the Irpin River on an improvised path under a bridge that was destroyed by a Russian air strike. AP Photo -
A woman holds a dog while crossing the Irpin River on an improvised path under a bridge that was destroyed by a Russian airstrike, while assisting people fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine. AP Photo -
Marina Yatsko and her boyfriend Fedor comfort each other at a hospital in Mariupol after her 18-month-old son Kirill was killed by shelling. AP Photo -
Ukrainian civilians receive weapons training in a cinema in Lviv, western Ukraine. AP Photo -
Residents flee the town of Irpin, near Kyiv, Ukraine. AP Photo -
Ukrainian soldiers carry a sick woman as civilians flee Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, after Russian attacks. AP Photo -
Captured Russian soldiers at a press conference in the Interfax news agency in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP Photo -
Ukrainians beneath a destroyed bridge in Irpin. AP Photo -
A woman fleeing Ukraine on a bus near the border crossing in Korczowa, Poland. AP Photo -
A Ukrainian soldier and a militia man help a fleeing family on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 5, 2022. AP Photo -
Smoke rises after shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol. AP Photo -
People at a hospital during shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol. AP Photo -
Displaced Ukrainians at the Resurrection New Athos Monastery in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP
Part of the problem was that Russian forces were not trained for a “strategic ground offensive” but instead had a defensive mentality against the Nato threat.
Although the war was far from over, it is now clear that dissembling within Russia's government and military had created severe problems.
“They really didn't prepare the military for war,” Dr Kaufman said. “They've attempted to conduct a full-scale invasion of Ukraine without the military operation to do it.
"They didn't tell the troops as it's very clear that junior officers found out, at best, the night before, and they sent many of their soldiers into war under false pretences. Thi,s in some ways, explains the real issue they've had of morale-sporadic cases of desertion.”
