Russian forces could be 'combat ineffective' within a fortnight

Morale depleted footsoldiers abandoning a 'phenomenal' amount of vehicles

A Ukrainian serviceman walks past the vertical tail fin of a Russian Su-34 bomber lying in a damaged building in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo

An apartment building damaged after shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo

A woman puts her head in her hands as she sits on a cot in a shelter, set up for displaced persons fleeing Ukraine, inside a school gymnasium in Przemysl, Poland. AP Photo

Belarussian and suspected Russian helicopters on the flight line at Machulishchy Air Base outside Minsk, Belarus. AP Photo

Children look on as people fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine shelter in a school, in Drohobych, Ukraine. Reuters

Families eat in the shelter. Reuters

A woman looks out from a building damaged by Russian shelling in Mykolaiv, 100 kilometres away from Odesa, western Ukraine. AFP

A wounded Ukrainian man waits in the corridor of the central hospital of Mykolaiv. AFP

An elderly woman is carried in a shopping cart after being rescued from Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. AP

A woman reacts as a train carrying children from Kyiv's Central Children's Hospital leaves the Ukrainian capital on its way to Lviv. Reuters

A girl sits in an improvised bomb shelter in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP

An elderly woman is coated in snow as she sits in a wheelchair after being rescued from Irpin. AP

Belarusian volunteers take part in military exercises at the Belarusian Company base in Kyiv. AP

Lessa, left, director of a nursery school turned into a refugee shelter, cries as she hugs Olega, who arrived from Kyiv with her baby, near Lviv. EPA

Ukrainians pass a damaged bridge as they flee from Irpin. AP

A man carries an elderly woman as people continue to leave Irpin. AP

A soldier stands on a barricade made of sandbags in central Odesa, Ukraine. Reuters

A charred Russian tank and captured tanks in the Sumy region. Reuters

People rest at a temporary shelter for Ukrainian refugees in Przemysl, Poland. AFP

Ukraine's ambassador to the Netherlands, Maksym Kononenko, third right, and his wife Tetiana Doroshenko, fourth left, attend a meeting of members of the Ukrainian community with Dutch King Willem-Alexander, third left, and Queen Maxima, second left, to discuss the situation in Ukraine, in The Hague. EPA

A Ukrainian soldier looks at the destruction after shelling in Ukraine's second-largest city of Kharkiv. AFP

A refugee holds her dog as they wait for trains to Poland in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters

A woman ties ribbons in Ukrainian national flag colours in a girl's hair as people wait at a refugee assistance centre in Prague, Czech Republic. EPA

A Ukrainian soldier carries an elderly woman crossing the Irpin river on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP

Lena, who had never left Ukraine before fleeing into Moldova, feeds Dasha, 3, soon after crossing the border. Erin Clare Brown for The National

Refugees without immediate plans to move further inland can stay the night in tents set up on Moldova's side of the border. Erin Clare Brown for The National

Tatiana and her son wait for a van that will carry them from the Moldovan border to Chisinau. Erin Clare Brown for The National

Each night, the Palanca refugee camp in Moldova feeds up to 300 people who arrive with no onward plans. Erin Clare Brown for The National

People pass a damaged bridge while fleeing the town of Irpin, close to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. AP

A Ukrainian soldier stands guard next to a church in Irpin. EPA

A firefighter holds the baby of a Ukrainian refugee at the border in Romania. AP

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks in Kyiv. Reuters

A Ukrainian soldier at a checkpoint in Kyiv. AP

Ukrainian activist Ihor Mazur, left, a veteran of the war in the country's east, looks at a night-vision device in Kyiv. AP

Ambassadors attend a UN Security Council meeting on threats to international security after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in New York. Reuters

Ukraine's UN ambassador Sergey Kyslytsya holds a paper with an image of Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as he addresses the Security Council in New York. Reuters

A road sign put up in support of Mr Zelenskyy outside Russia's embassy in Washington. AFP

Ukrainian refugees at the train station in Lviv, western Ukraine. EPA

Lethal and non-lethal Ukrainian aid is loaded on to a plane bound for Poland by Canadian soldiers in Trenton, Ontario. Reuters

Volunteers carry medical aid and necessities at a train station in Lviv. EPA

Everton players wear T-shirts in support of Ukraine as they warm up for an English Premier League football match against Tottenham Hotspur. AP

A residential building damaged by Russian shelling in Chernihiv, Ukraine. Reuters

A man walks past a checkpoint in heavy snow in Lviv. Getty

A man fleeing fighting in Irpin waits to cross a river after Russian forces entered the city. Getty

Soldiers assist Irpin residents underneath a damaged bridge as they flee. Getty

Ukrainian civilians who volunteered to join the Territorial Defence Forces take part in a training exercise in Odesa after Russia's invasion. Reuters

Men carry a body to a lorry as people flee from the frontline town of Irpin. EPA

A Ukrainian police officer runs with a child as the sound of shelling echoes nearby in Irpin. AP

Parents and children struggle to board a train in Lviv. AP

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Russia’s military can only sustain its army in Ukraine for another two weeks before it is forced to pause its onslaught, a leading military analyst has said.

Moscow’s generals might also be holding back some of their advanced equipment, fearing it will be needed to protect against potential Nato involvement, said Dr Michael Kofman.

Russian military specialists also highlighted a large number of shortcomings in the fighting with a “phenomenal” number of vehicles abandoned.

After 12 days of hard fighting, in which they have suffered heavy losses with potentially more than 5,000 dead, it was getting to the point where Moscow’s offensive would need new troops and kit.

A column of Russian military vehicles are seen abandoned in the snow, in a forest not far from Kharkiv, in the east of Ukraine. AFP

“They're probably going to need an operational pause within a couple of weeks as their military is going to get exhausted pretty soon,” said Dr Kofman of the US-based CNA, a think tank. “They've committed a large part of their force and at the current rate of attrition, they're likely going to be facing combat ineffectiveness in a couple of weeks. They will have to have a pause to reorganise and replenish.”

He added that even the battle-hardened veterans of Russia’s wars in eastern Ukraine and Syria were becoming disheartened. “If people feel they were lied to and they were thrown into a war without support, soldiers get disgruntled pretty fast.”

But he added that there was no way of telling how long the Ukrainian forces could similarly hold out.

The Russian Air Force, which has been notable by its absence, was potentially being held back for fear of losses with a view to the Nato threat, Dr Kofman told a webinar hosted by the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.

“They are concerned that the possibility of Nato intervention is escalating so they're not using them, so there must be a reason why they're doing that.”

He added that the military had fired more than 600 cruise missiles and other rockets, using up a “pretty sizeable” amount of their stockpile. “They're conserving them because they've likely grossly out-run what they expected to be the allocated number of expensive munitions,” he said.

The Russian plan was entirely focused on a lightning strike into Kyiv and other cities that would be lightly opposed, which had led infantry and airborne troops to push far ahead without the support of tanks and artillery. “They were operating as though they were still in their own country for the first 48 hours.”

The strong Ukrainian resistance ended President Vladimir Putin’s plan to decapitate the government and put his own puppet regime in place. “I do not believe they can any longer achieve their political objectives,” he said.

The site of many functioning vehicles being left on the side of roads was the result of Russian troops running away either from ambushes or breakdowns.

“You see them dump gear and run into the woods,” the expert in Russian armed forces said. “The ratio of destroyed vehicles to abandoned vehicles in this war is phenomenal.”

Cars are left abandoned on a road as residents flee the town of Irpin, Ukraine after days of heavy shelling. Reuters

A Ukrainian soldier helps a family fleeing from Irpin. Reuters

A bus passes the Duke of Wellington statue, which has a traffic cone in the colours of the flag of Ukraine placed on top of it, in Glasgow, Scotland. AP

Ukrainian children sleep at the reception point at the train station in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters

Smoke rises as a Ukrainian soldier stands by the only escape route used by locals to flee from the town of Irpin. Reuters

A man flees from Irpin. Reuters

A screengrab from footage released by the Russian Defence Ministry shows a purported Russian tank unit advancement in the Kyiv region. AFP

People walk on debris of residential buildings damaged by shelling in the Zhytomyr region. Reuters

A damaged residential building after Russian multiple rocket launchers shelled the area in the southern city of Mykolaiv. AFP

Ukrainian soldiers sit in their armoured vehicle after fighting against Russian troops and Russia-backed separatists near Zolote village, Luhansk region. AFP

A woman offers accommodation for people fleeing Ukraine at the main railway station in Berlin, Germany. Getty Images

A soldier holds a helmet as a wedding crown during the ceremony for members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces Lesia Ivashchenko and Valerii Fylymonov, at a checkpoint in Kyiv. AP

Ukrainian soldiers carry a woman fleeing the town of Irpin. AP

A factory and warehouse burn after being bombarded in Irpin. AP

Ukrainian soldiers near Zolote. AFP

A Ukrainian refugee boy, wearing a blanket on his shoulders, warms his hands with a gas heater shortly after crossing the Siret border into northern Romania. EPA

People demonstrate against the Russian military operation in Ukraine in Buenos Aires, Argentina. EPA

First responders work at the scene after a missile hit a building at Havryshivka Vinnytsia International Airport in Vinnytsia, Ukraine. Reuters

A woman at a checkpoint on the road to Kyiv after her evacuation from a nearby town. AFP

A placard in the Ukrainian colours is held up at an anti-war demonstration the Bebelplatz square in Berlin, Germany. Reuters

A Ukrainian serviceman helps an elderly woman in Irpin, 20 kilometres north-west of the capital Kyiv. AP Photo

Protesters cry during a demonstration in support of Ukraine at the Plaza Catalunya square in Barcelona. AFP

A man walks past a machine gun at a checkpoint next to the last bridge on the road that connects the town of Stoyanka to the outskirts of Ukraine's capital Kyiv. AFP

Ukrainian servicemen put a wounded man on a stretcher in Irpin. AP Photo

People board a train to return to Ukraine after getting supplies in Zahony, Hungary. AP Photo

Balloons in the colors of Ukraine during a demonstration against the Russian attack on Ukraine, in Mainz, Germany. AP

A Ukrainian girl helps to weave a camouflage net for the Ukrainian army, in Odesa. EPA

Molotov cocktails prepared by a group of volunteers in Odesa. Hundreds are made every day. EPA

Ukrainian servicemen assist people fleeing the town of Irpin after crossing the Irpin River on an improvised path under a bridge that was destroyed by a Russian air strike. AP Photo

A woman holds a dog while crossing the Irpin River on an improvised path under a bridge that was destroyed by a Russian airstrike, while assisting people fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine. AP Photo

Marina Yatsko and her boyfriend Fedor comfort each other at a hospital in Mariupol after her 18-month-old son Kirill was killed by shelling. AP Photo

Ukrainian civilians receive weapons training in a cinema in Lviv, western Ukraine. AP Photo

Residents flee the town of Irpin, near Kyiv, Ukraine. AP Photo

Ukrainian soldiers carry a sick woman as civilians flee Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, after Russian attacks. AP Photo

Captured Russian soldiers at a press conference in the Interfax news agency in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP Photo

Ukrainians beneath a destroyed bridge in Irpin. AP Photo

A woman fleeing Ukraine on a bus near the border crossing in Korczowa, Poland. AP Photo

A Ukrainian soldier and a militia man help a fleeing family on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 5, 2022. AP Photo

Smoke rises after shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol. AP Photo

People at a hospital during shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol. AP Photo

Displaced Ukrainians at the Resurrection New Athos Monastery in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP

Part of the problem was that Russian forces were not trained for a “strategic ground offensive” but instead had a defensive mentality against the Nato threat.

Although the war was far from over, it is now clear that dissembling within Russia's government and military had created severe problems.

“They really didn't prepare the military for war,” Dr Kaufman said. “They've attempted to conduct a full-scale invasion of Ukraine without the military operation to do it.

"They didn't tell the troops as it's very clear that junior officers found out, at best, the night before, and they sent many of their soldiers into war under false pretences. Thi,s in some ways, explains the real issue they've had of morale-sporadic cases of desertion.”